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This is what retail sales are ❗️

What are the retail sales figures announced at 21:30?

I'm Kabuzaru, an investment creator who is a former securities man. @kabuzaru


Retail sales are the total amount of goods and services sold by retail and service businesses.

It is an important economic indicator showing trends in private consumption, which accounts for approximately 70% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Retail sales are announced monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau.

The announcement date is around the 2nd week of the month following the target month.


Retail sales can be broadly divided into two categories: the “① automobile and similar parts” division and the “② non-automobile” division.

The automotive and parts division accounts for approximately 40% of total retail sales.

The non-automotive sector is a division that deals with products and services other than automobiles, such as clothing, appliances, furniture, food, beverages, and services.


Retail sales have an impact on stock quotes and the Fed's policy.


✔ ︎ Stock quotes
When retail sales exceed expectations, it is taken as an indication of economic expansion, and stock prices tend to rise.

Conversely, when retail sales fall below expectations, it is taken as indicating a deceleration in the economy, and stock prices tend to fall.


✔ ︎ Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve is raising policy interest rates to curb price increases.

However, if policy interest rates are raised too much, there is a possibility that the economy will cool down and retail sales will decline.

Therefore, the Fed is closely monitoring retail sales trends and adjusting the pace of raising policy interest rates.


Specifically, if retail sales exceed expectations, the Fed will determine that the economy is expanding, and there is a possibility that policy interest rate hikes will accelerate.

Conversely, if retail sales fall short of expectations, the Fed will determine that the economy is on a deceleration trend, and there is a possibility that policy interest rate hikes will moderate.


Note that retail sales are announced at “nominal values.”

Therefore, it is important to note that it is susceptible to rising prices.

Also, retail sales are indicators showing trends in private consumption, but service consumption is not included.

Therefore, in order to grasp overall trends in private consumption, it is necessary to check indicators, including service consumption, together.
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