Tokyo foreign exchange market in the morning = The dollar is heavy on the upside at around 154 yen, cautious about the situation in Ukraine and the Bank of Japan.

In the morning, the dollar remained heavy around 154 yen. The increased tension in the Ukrainian situation, along with the growing anticipation of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December, are contributing to the firmness of the yen.
The dollar was sold from the early 154 yen range and temporarily approached 153.97 yen, close to the previous day's overseas low. The strong tone of the yen from the previous day's overseas market remains unchanged, with the Euro around 161 yen and the Pound hovering around the 194 yen mark.
On the 21st, Russian President Putin announced on television that as retaliation for Ukraine's use of long-range weapons provided by Western countries, they have launched an attack with a new type of hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile. He also mentioned, "Regional conflicts provoked by Western countries have taken on a global nature."
In the market, there were voices cautioning against buying dollars and selling yen, due to the 'headline risk' where the market can react swiftly to just one breaking news report from the media conveying a change in the situation (according to a FX company source).

On the other hand, there has been a growing expectation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting, supporting the strength of the yen due to discussions indicating such a possibility.
According to LSEG data, the probability of a rate hike in December priced into the yen interest rate futures market is currently at 57%, surpassing the 43% probability of no change. The previous day, the odds were 47% for a rate hike and 52% for no change.
On the 21st, BOJ Governor Kuroda mentioned that there is another month until the next policy meeting, during which further information could be obtained.