Trend Analysis of the Dollar to Yen: Chairman Powell's Remar...
Trend Analysis of the Dollar to Yen: Chairman Powell's Remarks and Market Reactions
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony at the Senate Banking Committee had a major impact on the dollar to yen exchange rate. The background and future prospects will be analyzed in detail.
✔️ Chairman Powell's statement Chairman Powell pointed out that the risk of current high interest rates on the labor market is increasing while seeking additional evidence of a slowdown in inflation.
1. Inflation and labor market risks
There are concerns not only about the risk that inflation remains high, but that the labor market will cool down. Recent data shows that the labor market has cooled significantly.
2. Remarks on when to cut interest rates
Chairman Powell avoided showing a specific timeline for interest rate cuts, but he said that if further good data showing that the inflation rate is declining toward the authorities' 2% target, the possibility of policy easing will increase. On the other hand, it also points out the risk that progress on the inflationary side will stall if interest rates are cut too fast or too much.
✔️ Market reaction and trend of dollar to yen
In response to Chairman Powell's remarks, the yen fell against the dollar in the foreign exchange market, and 1 dollar = 161 yen 52 yen was recorded at one point. The market predicts the initial rate cut in September, and it is expected that interest rate cuts of 0.25 points will be made twice by the end of the year.
✔️ The state of the US economy
Inflation remains high in the US economy, and it is expected that it will take some time for the Fed to reach its 2% target. Also, the labor market is cooling down, and since the Fed's policy decisions depend on inflation data and labor market data, uncertainty continues to be high.
✔️ The state of the Japanese economy
Japan's economic growth remains moderate, and the Bank of Japan's policies continue to be accommodative. Therefore, it is a factor that keeps the value of yen low.
✔️ Effects of interest rate differences
While interest rates in the US remain high, interest rates in Japan continue to be extremely low. This interest rate difference has contributed to the weakening of the yen against the dollar, putting upward pressure on the dollar yen. Technical analysis (reported on LIVE streaming) support line 160 yen, 158 yen resistance line 163 yen, 165 yen
✔️ Future Prospects [Liberal Arts Views 💡]
・Short-term outlook Since Chairman Powell's remarks indicated that interest rate cuts would be moderated, there is a possibility that the strength of the dollar will continue. However, attention is drawn to labor market data and inflation data, and if these results are unexpected, there is a possibility that the market price will change suddenly.
・Mid-term outlook An important focus will be on whether interest rate cuts for September will be implemented. If the labor market cools down, there is a possibility that the yen's relative strength will increase.
✔️ Conclusions
Future trends in the dollar and yen are expected to be mainly influenced by US inflation data and labor market data. Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have receded slightly due to Chairman Powell's remarks, so there is a possibility that the strength of the dollar will continue in the short term. However, if the labor market cools down and inflation decelerates, the situation may change drastically, so it is necessary to keep a close eye on future announcements of economic indicators.
#投資 #ドル円 #為替 #NISA #老後 #資産 #資産運用 #pound #dollar #yen #euro #mexican peso #turkish lira
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
【心理学×投資】テクニカル分析/LIVE配信366DAY ＝先進国40：新興国60 /企業案件３社/登壇実績/
405Followers
1966Following
1467Visitors
Follow