Understood. I think the market has already factored in the rise in neutral interest rates (temporarily).
After watching Mr. Zakioka's video, I finally understood the movement of today's and yesterday's gold interest rates. The long-term FF rate estimate has increased by 0.1% compared to the previous estimate. It has also increased by 0.1% compared to the estimate before the previous one. In other words, the FRB considers the neutral interest rate to be gradually increasing. Therefore, the long-term interest rates rose today and yesterday.
I saw it in a newspaper article just after Jackson Hole, but I recall a hawkish committee member saying, "The neutral interest rate is 3%." This might happen at the December FOMC.
However, I think this assumption by the FRB is based on no landing or a soft landing. The FRB anticipates the unemployment rate to remain in the 4% range. If the unemployment rate exceeds this level, the expected slowdown in potential growth rate and the anticipation of an increase in the neutral interest rate will collapse. Also... to be honest, I feel that the FRB's forward guidance is somewhat contradictory. This applies not only to the discussion on the unemployment rate mentioned earlier, but to other aspects as well. I'll write about it when I think of it. (Feeling tired for some reason)
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J_M_RIN : I think that's correct.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
シャケちゃ : The reason for the rise in interest rates, I also agree. As for the latter part of the no-landing, soft landing, I think it is not such a simple matter. Whether it's soft or hard, it's a timing with high volatility, so it's important to be able to catch the waves.
ぴるさん : I just watched Zakioka's video a while ago, and the current situation was exactly as he described, lol.
akipi_ : Zakioka's videos are helpful, aren't they? Personally, I'm interested in the information that the bond market incorporates the opinions of money lenders and the stock market incorporates the opinions of securities traders.