Unemployment rate in the spotlight

The United States announced at 22:30 on January 5, 2024unemployment rateIs3.7%That was it. This is the unemployment rate for 2023/12 last year. It is the lowest value in 20233.4%Compared to, there is an upward trend, but in the last 5 months

Unemployment rate announced in September3.8%

October unemployment rate announced3.8%

Unemployment rate announced in November3.9%

Unemployment rate announced in December3.7%

Unemployment rate announced in January3.7%(this time)

If you take it from a more microscopic perspectiveunemployment rateIt's going down. The unemployment rate is not higher than market predictions, and the labor market is too strongInterest rate cuts won't happenIsn't it? Suddenly from speculation that policy interest rates would remain high,Stock depreciationThere is also a possibility that you will touch it, so be careful not to be too optimistic in the future. I wrote in last year's postunemployment rateThey said they would be reluctant to raise it, so the development is as expected. From a longer-term perspectiveunemployment rateIf you look at it after 19604% or less for 25 consecutive monthsSince it never remained at a low level, it is certain that US employment is strong. It was announced at the same timing as the unemployment rateNFP(number of people employed in the non-farm sector)216,000 peopleThat was it. In the last 3 months

November NFP announced150,000 people

NFP announced in December173,000 people

NFP announced in January216,000 people(this time)

This is also similar to the unemployment rate,SteadyThat's it. What does strong employment meanInterest rates remain highOr, in the worst case, interest rate hikes are also possible. If interest rates stay too high, there is also a possibility that the unemployment rate will suddenly rise and the economy will deteriorate rapidly. If the Fed doesn't cut interest rates based on the results that say employment is strong and the unemployment rate is low,soft landingHistory repeats itself when it fails. If interest rates are cut too soon, there is a possibility that inflation will reignite. As has been said since last yearsoft landingIt's difficult. Stock prices also rose in 2019 due to interest rate cuts, but stock prices crashed due to the coronavirus shock that occurred in 2020. It's impossible to predict the future,DiversificationLet's keep that in mind. Currently, the dollar is strong and stocks are stronggold pricehas begun to decline. If you think the stock price is too high, go lowKimI recommend that you buy more. Included in NFPLabor participation rateIs the result62.5%It was. If you look at it from a macro perspective

Announced in March 202362.5%

Announced April to August 202362.6%

Announced in 2023/9/1062.8%

Announced in November 202362.7%

Announced in 2023/1262.8%

Announced in 2024/162.5%(this time)

The figure for March last year has been lowered. What does it mean that the unemployment rate is low and the labor participation rate will also fallThe US economy is strongIt can be captured as. What are most voters complaining about in the presidential election this yearHigh pricesThat's it. Even though American citizens say prices are high, the number of people living without work is increasing. There is also a possibility that this is only temporary. Next timeThe labor participation rate is falling below 62.5%I think it will have an impact on stock prices. There are caveats, starting this yearHousehold Budget Survey RevisedIt has been done. Until 2023The calculation method is differentTherefore, it can also be said that the numbers have dropped. What is the labor participation rateunemployment rateSince it also has an effect onThere is also a possibility that the current low unemployment rate was created by differences in calculation methods. Although the unemployment rate is originally rising, there is a possibility that it has been calculated low, and thisInterest rate reduction factorsIt will be.NFPIf you look at the contents, it's more than the previous month

healthcare38,000 peopleincrement

construction17,000 peopleincrement

Leisure/Hospitality40,000 peopleincrement

retailing17,400 peopleincrement

manufacturing0.6 million peopleincrement　

Transportation and warehousing2.26 million peopleshrinks

Staffing business3.33 million peopleshrinks

Personnel reductions in the temporary staffing and transportation industries are significant, but health care and leisure/customer service are strong.Staffing businessSince the numerical value is highly responsive, it is thought that the labor market will become even stronger when employment in the temporary staffing industry starts to increase.