University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index falls

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/6/14University of Michigan Consumer Confidence IndexThe result is 69.1 compared to the previous time65.6It was.

These are preliminary figures for June this month.

Final figures will be announced at the end of the month.

Because a decline in consumption will cause interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence IndexThe final figures for March, April, and May were higher than market expectations, but the current figures are lower than market expectations.

There is a high possibility that a full-scale decline in consumption will occur.

Announced on 6/18retail salesThere is a high possibility that the market is paying attention, and current stock price movements are slow.

Announced at 21:30 on 2024/6/13Number of new unemployment insurance claimsResults for 229,000 cases last time242,000It was.

This indicator is published every Thursday.

4 consecutive weeks of increaseIt is.

It became a material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

It was announced at the same timeNumber of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceResults against 1.79 million people last time1.82 million peopleIt was.

It has remained almost flat for 5 consecutive weeks, but this week30,000 people increaseIt made a big move.

Number of new unemployment insurance claimsIf you can find employment right away even if it increasesNumber of people who continue to receive unemployment insurancewill not increase.

This is because even if you get fired from your job and apply for unemployment, you don't need to use unemployment insurance if you can find a place to change jobs right away.

Number of new unemployment insurance claimswithNumber of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceIf it starts to increase in proportion, there is a possibility that the deterioration in employment will rapidly accelerate.

unemployment rateIs it going to rise rapidly? What is the stock priceplungingdo you do it? It makes me think, but this is hard to think about.

What is the US economydoing wellThat's why. Even if policy interest rates are kept highunemployment rateThere hasn't been much increase.

High pricesThere are signs of a decline in consumption due to a decline in consumption, but in order to lower prices, it is inevitable that consumption will drop, so a temporary deterioration in the economy is a resultgood signI can say that.

There are people who make noise in the streets when a stock crash occurs due to the economic deterioration that is about to occurCPIYaCore CPIBecause when it falls, prices fall and consumption is stimulatedStock heightIt's going to happen.

This year it's globalintense heatConsidering that there is a slightly high possibility that it will becomecommoditiesMore than expected due to price increasesCPIThere is a possibility that it will be reluctant to decline.

Even if energy prices rise due to intense heat, if it gets cooler in the fall,commoditiesPrices will also drop.

If there is only one point of concern, droughts will occur due to intense heatFood price increaseThere is a fear of

This is just one scenario.ZW (US wheat futures)It skyrocketed in May, but it has settled down at the current value of 611.75 dollars.

futures market80% isFundIt is said to be occupied by, and although it is a small market compared to exchange rates and stocks, it is a market with a high level of attention because trends in professional funds are clearly shown.

droughtsWhen the possibility of increasing, the one that responds quicklyfutures marketI can say that.

Predicting stock price movementsimpossibleI can say that. The reason is that it is affected by economic indicators, exchange rates, technical news, and futures.

For example, against stock prices in the futures marketBad materialsEven if they are released, economic indicatorsGood materialIf so, economic indicators will be prioritized and stock prices will rise.

If you think about the fact that no one knows what will be prioritized, even if a situation you have thought of occurs, it does not necessarily mean that it will be the price movement of the stock you are aiming for.

The trick to winning with stocks is not to think too restrictively.