US core PCE stagnates

The United States announced at 21:30 on May 31, 2024Core PCE (YoY)The result is 2.8% of the previous month2.8%It was.

This is data for the previous month of 4 months.

February, March, and April (this time) for 3 consecutive monthsstagnationIt is.

Personal savings rateIs the same as the previous month3.6%It is.

Personal savings rateIt fell moderately from 2023/5/5.3% (announced in June), and the current value3.6%It is.

The US economy is on an inflationary trendSteadyIt is.

core PCEWe are far from reaching our target of 2%. The reasonsoft landingThis is because there is a high possibility.

BoomPrices are unlikely to fall when they are maintained. Even so, they are trying to lower prices, so it is theoretically contradictory.

BoomWhy is it possible to lower prices while maintaining? When I sayunemployment rateAdjust it by raising it little by little.

pricesWhen it comes to why (including services) is expensive, it's because there are many people who spend money.

unemploymentIf you do, the amount of money you spend will decrease. ThisInflation has subsidedIt contributes to Strictly speaking, fewer people spend money, so the number of unemployed people will increase, and the number of people who spend money will also decrease.

Personal savings rateThe fact that it is on a downward trend of 3.6% indicates that the majority of people can buy things even though they say they are expensive, and are unwilling to finish buying them.

unemployment rateIf it starts to rise, prices will drop. ThisInterest rate cutsIt leads to expectationsStock heightIt's a factor.

As a disadvantageunemployment rateThe rise also increases the risk of a recession. ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/5/30Second-hand housing sales contract index (month-on-month)The result is 3.6% of the previous monthminus 7.7%It was.

In response to this announcementUS 10-year bond yieldhas declined.

Higher long-term interest rates will raise mortgage interest rates. As loan interest rates rise, the number of home buyers decreases.

Second-hand housing sales contract indexIt includes not only second-hand detached houses, but also condominiums.

Recently, the US housing market has been driven by high-income earners buying luxury housing, but when that stronghold collapses, the number of housing units sold will decline in earnest.

Because when housing sales are sluggish, the economy fallsUS 10-year bond yieldwill drop and mortgage interest rates will drop.

Because when mortgage interest rates fall, the number of home buyers increasesThe economy is revitalizedIt will be done.

Because if the number of buyers of detached houses increases, rent increases can be suppressedDecrease in CPIConnected toStock heightIt's a factor.