US CPI falls

The United States announced on 2024/7/11 at 21:30CPI (month-on-month)The result is 3.3% of the previous month3.0%It was.

The decline in prices became a source of interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

CPIIf you take a look at the breakdownFood service sectorInflation adhesiveness is high.

Housing expensesI think the fact that it fell from the previous month will be well received by the market.

As a point of concern, global temperatures are high this yearintense heatIf it continues, there is a risk that electricity charges will rise.

The United StateshurricanesSince we are entering the season, it is largehurricanesThere is also a possibility that fuel prices will rise due to the effects.

ThisCPITo push upStock depreciationIt's a factor.

US 10-year bond yieldIt has declined in response to the CPI announcement.

What is the decline in long-term interest ratesStock heightIt's a factor.

Interest rate cutsThere are times when the season is getting closer, so it's a commoditysilver futuresPrices are actively moving.

SilverThe backlash began on 6/27CPIIt has been bought even larger in response to the decline.

This timeCPIThen it dropped a lot and added 3.0%. There is a high possibility that it will enter the 2% range with the announcement in August next month.

ThisStock heightIt will produce.

Even if it is said that the interest rate cut period is getting closer, it's the most recentunemployment rateConsidering that it is 4.1%, there is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates in a hurry, and I think it will enter a slightly uncertain market.

For example, even if the CPI and core PCE fall below 2% as the standard, if the unemployment rate remains at a low level in the 4% range, the interest rate cut period will recede more than the market thinks.

The reasonThere's no reason for the Fed to be impatientIt's from there.

inverselyunemployment rateIf it rises at an accelerated rate of 4.1% → 4.3% and 4.3% → 4.7%, there is a high probabilityInterest rate cutsstarts.

What is the idea that interest rate cuts = stock appreciationperilsThat's it. After interest rate cutsunemployment rateIf it doesn't fall, stocks will plummet.

unemployment rateIf it falls, stocks will rise.

unemployment rateThe rise brings interest rate cuts closer, but interest rate cuts do not necessarily mean that stocks will increase.