US CPI rise and AI stocks

United States announced on March 12, 2024CPI (year-on-year)Is the result3.2%It was.

The United States announced at the same timeCore CPI (YoY)Is the result3.8%It was.

CPIis an abbreviation for the consumer price index and is an index that measures high prices.

Fresh food and energy prices are included in the current resultsCPI (year-on-year)It has risen 0.1%, and prices have stopped falling.

This was anticipated from the end of 2023 last yearWithin the expected rangeIt is.

Prices accelerate when they start to rise, but when they fallDecline and stagnationRepeat.

In response to this resultUS 10-year bond yieldFrom 4.088%4.174%It has skyrocketed to This is for stock pricesheadwindIt is.

unemployment rateIt was a bond market where there was little response to the announcementunemployment ratethanCPIYou can see that the emphasis is on The trend is similar to last month.

US 10-year bond yieldIf the high price rises to 4.354% on 2/22, there is a possibility that the downward trend in bond yields will collapse, and a major adjustment phase may occur.

CPIIf you look at the breakdown, the overall CPI is up 3.2% on a year-on-year basis

car insurance: 20.6% increase

Housing expenses: 5.7% increase

Tobacco and smoking products: 7.1% increase

Cost of eating out: 4.5% increase

Housing expensesis still as expensive as evercar insurancehas boosted the overall figure.

There have been variations from state to state since the beginning of this year, but the reason is the impact of rising car repair and replacement costsCar insurance premiumsThere is an upward trend.

CPINot on a year-on-year basismonth-on-monthOn a base basis, the overall increase is 0.6%, while

energy sector: 2.2% increase

raiment: 3.2% increase

airfares: 6.6% increase

It's in the energy sector breakdownGasoline pricesBut4.3%It's rising. This is on the marketanaerobicIt has been done.

It was announced last weekEmployment statisticsOK, regular employmentA decrease of 187,000Part-time employment against51,000 peopleAn increase and bias were visible.

Looking at the whole, employment seems to be doing well, but we can see movements that seem to be slightly deflationary.

dollar yenThe rate had fallen from the opening price of 1 dollar 150.70 yen on 2/29 to the closing price of 1 dollar 146.74 yen on 3/11, but the current price is up to 147.69 dollars per dollarrestitutionI'm doing it.

dollar yenEven if it falls, I think dollars will continue to be bought because there are several months until the interest rate cut period.

The dollar appreciatesBecause if it continues it will contribute to calming down inflationInterest rate reduction factorsThis is a tailwind for stocks.

The dollar appreciatesThe reason why will it continueHigh interest ratesThis is because they have adopted a policy, and if interest rates are maintained, rent is includedHousing expensesAnd since car insurance premiums continue to rise, it will put pressure on the American economy.

It's negative for the economyAI stocksThat's good news for you.

AI stocksIt's easy to see the rise in price because it's popularHigh interest ratesThe negative factorIncreased productivityThere is a view that it will be covered by

More and more when the real economy enters a deceleration trend and the trend of interest rate cuts becomes strongerAI stocksThere is a possibility that it will rise.

This timeCPIWell, I was disgusted by the deep-seated inflationary trend, but the opposite is true between housing costs and crude oil prices, which are reluctant to declineUS Wheat Futures PricesIt has dropped to around its peak in 2019 before COVID-19.

Although inflation is definitely progressing to subsideCrude oil priceswithHousing expensesInterest rates will not fall due to strong influence.

If the US economy stalls, stock prices will naturallyDeclineThere is a high possibility, but if the economy deceleratesCrude oil pricesIt went downUS 10-year bond yieldIt will also drop.

It is necessary to scrutinize the unemployment rate in the major adjustment phase that will occur somewhere this yearThe perfect place to buy stocksThe possibility that it will become is increasing.