US Stocks Outperform Polls in Election Predictions, Perfect Since 1984
Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in multiple post-debate polls, with The New York Times giving her a 49% chance of winning against Trump's 46%. FiveThirtyEight places Harris at 47.1% and Trump at 44.3%.
On Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, the race is tighter, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%.
Polls have often been used to gauge election outcomes, but their reliability has come into question due to unexpected results. In a 2023 study, Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, found that U.S. election polls have been correct 78% of the time since 1998.
In contrast, the stock market has a more impressive track record. According to Forbes, it has predicted presidential winners with 87% accuracy since 1928. Market declines before elections typically signal defeat for the incumbent party.
Historically, if the S&P 500 sees gains from August to October in election years, the incumbent party usually wins. A decline favors the opposition. This indicator has been accurate in all ten elections since 1984.
“Equity performance reflects broader economic sentiment,” said John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer at LPL Financial, and veteran analyst Matthew Anderson. “When voters are satisfied with the economy’s direction, they tend to support the status quo. When they are dissatisfied, they are more inclined to vote for change.”
As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 has risen 1.33% since August. With over 50 days until the election, market conditions can still shift.
For investors looking to bet on the U.S. election outcome, buying stocks or sectors likely to benefit from a Harris or Trump victory is an option. In the past two months, as election probabilities have shifted, stock prices have shown significant volatility.
Jefferies analysts have reviewed the policies and platforms of Harris and Trump, identifying potential beneficiary stocks. For more details, refer to our previous article, Trump Trade' vs. 'Harris Trade': How They Could Shape Your Portfolio.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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bmelvin3 : Complete and utter bullshit! Trump will defeat Kamelho in a landslide!
102956527 : Market will rally for trump to win
104250779 : thanawat khotsalee
10330259601126149597 : on
70657402 102956527 : I believe that too
102956527 : Tech stocks will run to year end
102956527 102956527 : Nvidia another 50% Palantir another 50%
Wilson Chiang : Trump 2099!
101775147 AL alfi : Where else is it that I'm interested?
Patricia Lanham : Kamala has this win in the bag!!!!
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