● We are finally moving from fundamentals to an age where te...
● We are finally moving from fundamentals to an age where technology works!
・FOMC
① Interest rates remained unchanged for 3 consecutive meetings, interest rates were cut multiple times in 2024, and it was decided unanimously that the main policy interest rates would remain unchanged at the high level since 2001.
② Although inflation has eased, it is still at a high level, which suggests a slowdown in growth in economic activity. The induction target range for FF interest rates is 5.25-5.5%, and it is expected that there will be no additional interest rate hikes in the future.
③ A total forecast of 0.75 points for 2024. The trigger is that the pace of interest rate cuts is steeper than predicted as of September. Eight people cut interest rates by 0.25 points less than 3 times. Five people expect interest rate cuts even further.
④ Chairman Powell's thoughts and predictions are not predetermined plans. In order to prevent upward pressure on prices from rising again, there is no intention of removing the option of additional interest rate hikes. Interest rate cuts have begun to come into view, and it is clear that they have become a hot topic in the real world.
⑤ Inflation has been mitigated in 1 year, but it is still at a high level. Risks against price increases are generally balanced for most participants. Inflation forecasts for this year and next year have been revised downward. It can be seen that overall performance has slowed markedly with respect to CPI.PPI.PCE, but the core is still at a high level.
● The yen exchange rate rose to the latter half of the 1 dollar 142 yen range, and the afterglow of the Fed meeting. Results of the Fed meeting Chairman Powell's press conference In response to this, the appreciation of the yen progressed, and the price rose to the latter half of the 1 dollar 142 yen range in the yen exchange rate, which had been in the 145 yen range per dollar before the announcement. There is a movement to buy yen and sell dollars in awareness of the narrowing interest rate difference between Japan and the US. I want you to understand that there is still a gap when it comes to reverse yields. At the same time, preparations for the release of recession are progressing moment by moment, so the market is optimistic, so I would like to keep hedging.
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