Why is it said that dual cultivation of long and short positions is impossible to achieve?
Human thinking has inertia, and people often have conscious or unconscious biases and tendencies.
Are you more talented than investment guru Peter Lynch?
Peter Lynch (born January 19, 1944) is a fund manager at an investment management company. He is currently the Vice Chairman of Fidelity Investments and one of the members of the Fidelity Fund Trustees. He currently resides in Boston.
During Peter Lynch's 13 years as fund manager of the Magellan Fund, the fund's assets grew from $20 million to $14 billion, with over 1 million fund investors. It became Fidelity's flagship fund, with an average annual compound return of 29.2%.
Born on January 19, 1944 in Boston.
In 1954, my father passed away due to illness, and our family's life fell into difficulty.
In 1955, he found a job as a caddy at a golf course.
In 1968, he graduated from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.
In 1969, he joined Fidelity Investments as a researcher.
In 1977, he became the fund manager of the Magellan Fund.
In May 1990, he voluntarily resigned from his position as a fund manager.
Lynch likes to accumulate small profits and does not reject even small profits. He prefers to make small decisions every day instead of making a few big decisions every year. He believes that the losses from making small decisions every day are much smaller than the losses from making a few big decisions all at once.
He considers the theory of efficient market hypothesis to be absurd.
The investment method of whales: Whales first indiscriminately, quickly, and in large quantities devour marine life, and then through the selection of whale bristles, keep a small part and exclude the rest. When Lynch sees investment opportunities, he also first buys a large number of stocks, then conducts research, and finally chooses a small part of the stocks to continue to hold, and sells all the rest.
The "cocktail party" theory:
When a stock market is bearish for a while, but at the same time there is no expectation that it will be bullish, even if the stock market rises slightly, people are unwilling to talk about stocks. We call this period the first stage. In this stage, if someone slowly walks over to me and asks me what profession I am engaged in, and I answer "I am engaged in the management of mutual funds", the person will politely nod and then turn around and leave. If he doesn't leave, he will quickly change the topic and talk about the Celtics game, the upcoming election, or just simply the weather. After a while, he will turn to the dentist and talk about swollen gums and the like. When 10 people would rather talk to the dentist about dental health than talk to someone managing mutual funds about stocks, the stock market may rise.
In the second stage, after I explain my profession to the person who approached me, he may have a longer conversation with me, discussing some risks of stocks, etc. People are still not inclined to talk about stocks, and during this period, the stock market has risen 15%, but no one pays attention.
In the third stage, when the stock market has risen 30%, most of the participants in the cocktail party will ignore the dentist and focus on me. Joyful people keep pulling me aside and asking me what stocks to buy, even the dentist asks me the same question. Everyone at the party is investing in some kind of stock and eagerly discussing the situation that has already appeared in the stock market.
In the fourth stage, people gather around me, this time they are advising me on what stocks to buy and recommending three or four stocks. A few days later, I find in the newspaper that the stocks they recommended have already risen. When even my neighbors suggest which stocks to buy, it is precisely the accurate signal that the stock market has reached its peak and is about to decline."
The "cocktail party" theory is not a universally applicable theory, and Lynch also reminds people that they should take what they need and avoid blind worship.
Warren Buffett and Lynch are the two greatest investors in modern society. Along with George Soros, I want to describe them as "geniuses". However, "if I were to choose who is the most flawless overall, I would only choose Peter Lynch, whose character can be called the first; he is like the Greek mythological Hercules, a "god" figure on Wall Street. One thing that I admire is that he knows when to exit and return to his family" -- Investment Master Newburg
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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