Why isn’t the BTC price moving despite billions in ETF inflows?

Despite a record 19-day streak of inflows into United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many are wondering why the price of Bitcoin has failed to surpass its all-time high of $73,679 set in March.

According to data from Farside, Bitcoin ETF net inflows on June 6 totaled $217.7 million.
Since they launched, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $15.5 billion in inflows — although some traders believe the amount is still too small to significantly impact prices until other markets open up.
“There are still no spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.K. or Japan, two major markets. There is lots of room to grow,” Cane Island Alternative Advisors founder Timothy Peterson told Cointelegraph.

Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10, Bitcoin surged nearly 53%, reaching all-time highs of $73,679 by March 13.

However, in the nearly three months since then, it has failed to rally further, trading mainly within the range of its high and the $60,000 support level.

For another significant price surge to happen, confirmation of one of the three major factors will be required:

Higher average ETF buying, lessened long-term holder selling, growth in U.S. or global liquidity.

The selling by long-term holders is a significant factor, noting that those who have held Bitcoin for more than two years have been selling more frequently in 2024.

This group’s share of the total Bitcoin supply has dropped slightly to 54% over the past six months, which has a much bigger impact on Bitcoin than it sounds.

While 3% doesn’t sound like much, that is equivalent to about 630,000 Bitcoin, or about 3x the total amount purchased by all of the Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

We likely haven’t seen the impacts of the Halving, with the daily Bitcoin issuance dropping by 50% in March. We will likely see the delta between ETF consumption and Bitcoin mined widen substantially over the next 12 months.