Will Bitcoin End Its Consolidation in Q4 and Enter a Bull Market?

“This is by far the longest time it took to break a previous all time high, it was also the quickest price has made a new all time high in a cycle (before the halving). It all balances out.” He said.

Based on Bitcoin's monthly returns over the past decade, the performance in September and October aligns almost perfectly with the typical transition from a 'consolidation/bear market' to a 'bull market' phase following a halving. If this pattern holds true this year, we may see the current consolidation phase end in September, followed by a significant uptick in October.

● The average return for September is -4.78%, with a median of -5.58%, making it historically one of the worst performing months.

● In contrast, October has an average return of 22.90%, with a median of 27.70%, consistently making it one of the best performing months.

The consistency of this performance is particularly noteworthy. According to the data shown, October has seen positive returns in 9 out of 12 years, with some years experiencing quite astonishing gains (such as 60.79% in 2013, 39.93% in 2021 and 28.52% in 2023).

If historical patterns continue to hold, we might see the real bull market kick off in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.

The market has fully anticipated a rate cut by September, and increasingly more people believe that this cut will exceed the minimum of 0.25%. The latest data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the probabilities of a rate cut of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 71.5% and 28.5%, respectively.

Bernstein Research released a report saying that the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, may undergo a major shift depending on the results of the upcoming US presidential election. Analysis shows that Donald Trump's potential victory may catalyze the bottoming out of Bitcoin prices, leading to an increase in the prices of major cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, if Harris wins, it could lead to a decline in cryptocurrency prices due to Trump not being re-elected, falling short of expectations. However, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out in a report that compared to the current Biden administration, Kamala Harris' election as president may be more favorable for cryptocurrency.

Seiberg predicts that the Harris government may support investor protection efforts and retain the SEC's role in regulating tokens and trading platforms. Seiberg stated that investor protection measures under the Harris administration may be slightly stricter than those under the Trump administration.

Source: CNBC, CME Group