Will the economy not recede and prices will calm down, September will be skipped, and November stopped
The interest rate hike skip at the 9/20 FOMC is almost certain unless an unexpectedly large number comes out in the CPI on the 13th. If interest rates are raised one more time, around 4.25% is an appropriate value for the US long-term interest rate. I think the Fed is making a small leap forward in the correctness of its own monetary policy. The governor of the NY Federal Reserve commented that the surprise in recent economic indicators was the high GDP, which eliminated the recession scenario.
Meanwhile, inflation peakouts have been confirmed in price statistics, and as Federal Reserve Board Director Waller pointed out the other day, the tightness of labor supply and demand, which remains the last concern in terms of prices, has begun to loosen. The current US economy is in a dreamy situation where prices will calm down without recession. However, this does not mean that other countries can run the same economy. Concerns about the future are probably excessive appreciation of the dollar.
China is in deflation due to the division between the US and China and shared wealth, Europe is in recession due to structural changes, and Japan cannot see a catch-up of wage increases even if prices rise. Also, if the US economy expands crude oil consumption again, the US, which is an oil exporter, will benefit, and Europe and Japan, which do not produce oil, will suffer from trade deficits. Europe and Japan are crying again this year, and due to international cooperation between the IMF and G7 in October, the scenario of stopping interest rate hikes at the November FOMC is likely to become a reality.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
個人投資家、証券会社元現地法人社長 : 豊国物産(ほうこく)は祖父が広島で経営していた豆問屋の名称です。今はもうありません。
165Followers
12Following
548Visitors
Follow
ごにょにょ : A dreamy situation where prices calm down without recession![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Did such a good story actually happen![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
豊国物産(米金融動向) OP ごにょにょ : Thank you very much. As the gap between rich and poor has further widened, consumption among the wealthy has steadily expanded, and although the trend of inflation continues for luxury consumer goods, it seems that the public will not buy until prices rise. You can see it by looking at Wal-Mart's favorable financial results, which are sold at a bargain price. Unless everyone moves at the same time, it doesn't seem like there will be full-scale inflation.