Will the economy slow down in the first half of 2024, and will US stocks fall?
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF(SOXS.US$ I'll be watching closely from March to May![]()
Congratulations on the new year~![]()
The American economy is entering the end of the business cycle, and I think America will recede. The current situation seems to be progressing like a soft landing![]()
Last year, we were able to avoid a recession due to several factors.
Banks were prevented from going bankrupt, and the accumulation of savings and reverse reports saved during the COVID-19 pandemic underpinned US stocks.
But I think we'll lose that power this year![]()
The Fed's Bank Rescue Program (BTFP) is scheduled to end in March of this year, and the extra savings accumulated due to COVID-19 will be close to zero in May![]()
I've been thinking that the decline in reverse repos for US stocks last year supported US stocks, but that reverse repo is also scheduled to run out in May![]()
Since May, there has been a high possibility that both the American economy and stock prices will fall due to the economic recession.
Even if the economy recedes, it feels like a soft landing, so there will be misalignment with expectations and blurring in the economic recession in stock prices![]()
If you think that the economy decelerates, the Fed will cut interest rates, I think that when interest rates fall, PER for stocks that are expected to grow will rise, and stock prices for growth stocks such as semiconductors and high-tech stocks will rise. The rise in stock prices in November and December last year seems to have factored in this scenario![]()
As a forecast, even if the economy deteriorates after March, I think it will cause interest rate cuts, and stock prices will rise in the second half of this year![]()
The American economy is entering the end of the business cycle, and I think America will recede. The current situation seems to be progressing like a soft landing
Last year, we were able to avoid a recession due to several factors.
Banks were prevented from going bankrupt, and the accumulation of savings and reverse reports saved during the COVID-19 pandemic underpinned US stocks.
But I think we'll lose that power this year
The Fed's Bank Rescue Program (BTFP) is scheduled to end in March of this year, and the extra savings accumulated due to COVID-19 will be close to zero in May
I've been thinking that the decline in reverse repos for US stocks last year supported US stocks, but that reverse repo is also scheduled to run out in May
Since May, there has been a high possibility that both the American economy and stock prices will fall due to the economic recession.
Even if the economy recedes, it feels like a soft landing, so there will be misalignment with expectations and blurring in the economic recession in stock prices
If you think that the economy decelerates, the Fed will cut interest rates, I think that when interest rates fall, PER for stocks that are expected to grow will rise, and stock prices for growth stocks such as semiconductors and high-tech stocks will rise. The rise in stock prices in November and December last year seems to have factored in this scenario
As a forecast, even if the economy deteriorates after March, I think it will cause interest rate cuts, and stock prices will rise in the second half of this year
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wwolfvct : What is the first day's rise
grateful
kankan2 : As expected, Pinhane! It's a learning experience! It's not a bad idea to test out how much a 3x reverse capital gain would be! It will be a study for the future!