Yen exchange rate moves cautiously ahead of Japan-US monetary policy decisions
The dollar yen has remained stable around 154 yen. Market participants are paying attention to the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for this week, and a cautious stance associated with it can be seen.
✔️ US economic data and interest rate trends
The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index announced on the 26th had a major impact on the market. This inflation index is an important factor affecting interest rate trends in the United States, and since the current data strengthened interest rate cut observations at the FOMC in September, interest rates in the United States declined. As a result, the dollar depreciated, and the yen temporarily rose to the first half of the 153 yen range. Also, this movement shows that market expectations for Japan-US monetary policies are growing.
✔️ Attention to BOJ and FOMC policy decisions
The Bank of Japan and the FOMC are scheduled to announce their respective monetary policies this week. In particular, attention is being paid to whether the Bank of Japan will reduce purchases of long-term government bonds or raise additional interest rates. Currently, in the interest rate swap market, the possibility that the BOJ will raise interest rates by 15 basis points is factored in by about 50%. The FOMC focuses on whether or not hints regarding interest rate cuts in September will be issued, and the market is centered on trading position adjustments while awaiting this announcement.
✔️ Speculators' movements and yen buybacks
In recent movements in the yen exchange rate, it is characteristic that speculators have decreased their positions selling yen. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the non-commercial sector's yen sales margin reached 0.1 million7100 units, a low level since March. In particular, the reduction range from the previous week (approximately 0.04 million4000 sheets) was the size since 2020/3, and the repurchase of yen progressed against the backdrop of intervention observations by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan. As a result, the yen recorded a large rate of increase since May, and the yen has continued to appreciate for 4 consecutive weeks since the beginning of July.
✔️ Conclusions
The current yen exchange rate is influenced by market uncertainty ahead of Japan-US monetary policy decisions. While US economic data intensifies observations of interest rate cuts, there is also a sense of caution against the Bank of Japan's policy changes. Furthermore, adjustments in yen positions by speculators have also had an impact on the market, and future trends depend on how these factors intersect. Market participants are required to keep an eye on the results of future policy decisions and maintain a cautious stance.
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