$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF(SOXS.US)$ I'll be watching closely from March to May
Congratulations on the new year~
The American economy is entering the end of the business cycle, and I think America will recede. The current situation seems to be progressing like a soft landing
Last year, we were able to avoid a recession due to several factors.
Banks were prevented from going bankrupt, and the accumulation of savings and reverse reports saved during the COVID-19 pandemic underpinned US stocks.
But I think we'll lose that power this year
The Fed's Bank Rescue Program (BTFP) is scheduled to end in March of this year, and the extra savings accumulated due to COVID-19 will be close to zero in May
I've been thinking that the decline in reverse repos for US stocks last year supported US stocks, but that reverse repo is also scheduled to run out in May
Since May, there has been a high possibility that both the American economy and stock prices will fall due to the economic recession.
Even if the economy recedes, it feels like a soft landing, so even stock prices are misaligned with expectations and economic recessions...