Looking at the short to medium term interest rates in Japanese Yen and US Dollar, it is almost certain that the Fed will cut rates and the Bank of Japan will raise rates. The market is expected to be seeing this, so I would like to organize the recent trading process.
In carry trade, it has been reasonable globally to borrow low-interest assets and invest in high-interest assets to make a profit. Therefore, it was logical to borrow the low-interest Yen and invest in the high-interest Dollar.
Considering the recent policy changes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the flow has reversed, leading to a stronger Yen and weaker Dollar, reaching levels around 140 Yen per Dollar. It is now considered theoretically optimal to sell Dollars and buy Yen. In the very short term, I believe that Tokyo's price index and personnel changes in the US new administration were significant factors driving this.
Even if the Japanese yen interest rate reaches 0.5% and the U.S. interest rate reaches 3.5%, there is still a 3% interest rate difference between the two, so it is not enough to completely reverse carry trades. Therefore, it is anticipated that temporary yen strength and dollar weakness will occur, but this is expected to be limited. Even if the interest rate difference between the two disappears in the future, it is expected to happen quite far in the future, and during that time, the relative interest rates...

Entering the second half of this year, as part of the portfolio and significantly increasing the position in MSTR after the U.S. presidential election, the current unrealized gains exceed $0.12 million.
As for future plans, a partial or complete profit-taking and position adjustments will be made. At this stage, it is not pessimistic about the future, but rather a response to the fact that the position has become significantly larger than the risk tolerance. Depending on the market, the timing of profit-taking and the amount of adjustment will vary.
In the current analysis, MSTR has increased its holdings by buying more through convertible bonds for financing, with over 0.33 million BTC currently held, which is well over 1% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply, making it the number one publicly traded company. When converted at $0.09 million per 1 BTC, it is approximately $30 billion, and considering from MSTR's market capitalization, it is not hard to imagine that the Bitcoin price directly affects the stock price. A similar situation is observed with MARA, currently in second place, which has also announced plans to acquire Bitcoin using part of the funds from bond issuance.
On the other hand, in contrast to the rise in the value of bitcoin, MSTR's share price increase seems to have a relatively leveraged situation...

With the US presidential election over and major Q3 earnings reports, including Big Tech, released, I took profits and repositioned stocks this week, compressing unrealized gains by approximately +10 million yen.
Notable realized gains were in NVDA, PLTR, CEG, AEM. Each of these capitalized on recent AI, energy, gold, and other hot topics, leading to substantial profits.
Although TSM had solid earnings, its stock price stagnated, prompting me to cut losses and liquidate all positions. I believe there are no major issues with future performance, but due to insufficient geopolitical risk assessment criteria such as Trump's policies regarding China, Russia, the Middle East, and security, I will monitor future policy developments.
Among my current positions, I am optimistic about the earnings and guidance of AI-related companies like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META. I have narrowed down my investment picks to NVDA and PLTR, while also realizing profits and adjusting positions for the remaining two investment picks. This trading strategy aims to adjust the slight bias in my portfolio...