$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
In March, the U.S., which is largely on the track of the tiger, wrote on a bulletin board that there is a risk of rising long-term interest rates, and realized that TMF, which was IN in December 2023, did not rise.
I had a feeling since January, but in March I became convinced and honestly accepted my mistake.
Even if it goes up, I don't think it will exceed the peak set in December...
Unfortunately, it turned out as I thought.
At the time of purchase, I did not understand well the characteristics and relationships of government bonds, stocks, Gold, and other assets.
It was rewarding to be able to understand the macro perspective by holding them.
In February 2025, there is a scheduled historic large-scale revision of employment Statistics.
The expected number is below 0.8 million, but it is said to actually reach 1 million people.
This may become a negative surprise and change the situation.
The issue is whether the long-term interest rates, on which many have bet a majority of their assets, will decrease.
Honestly, I am not confident enough to say that it will drop that much.
Because central banks around the world are reducing US bond holdings.
In terms of stocks, the volume entering the market due to the elimination of consolidations has increased...

$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
All TMF holders
When will the long-term interest rates
How much are the financial estimates expected to decline?
Do you have any shareholding?
Please let me refer to it.

$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
I didn't understand the relationship between long and short interest rates 🤮🤮🤮
There is a high possibility that TMF will make profits in scenarios with a low probability.
As a premise, there is no point in buying long-term bonds if it is not a sequence yield.
In fact, short-term corporate bonds are selling better.
So, what would it take to become a top yield? What do you all think? Don't you think it's long? If there's a possibility, I think it's different if we continue to run in an optimistic market and suddenly have a recession where we fall off a cliff.
Now that we are running on the almost track route, any tax cuts or tariff measures would increase inflationary pressures. The downgrade of US bonds and the demand for further risk premiums on long-term bonds carry the risk of rising.
My acquisition cost is 58, and I've been at a loss all along, but the scenario for making a profit is not very certain and the duration should not be long.
If you hold on to it for a long time, it will decrease,
I completely missed it.