$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Due to the semiconductor export regulations, even though domestic demand companies are strong in yesterday's stock heat map, semiconductors are burdened by regulations. (Somehow SOX had a good increase ^_^) Despite the slight increase in recent days, the fact that it's lagging behind the S&P means that there is something missing in the S&P that is not present in the Nasdaq. After the election, observing the heat map closely, it's clear that domestic demand companies, finance, electrical infrastructure, and utilities have been doing well all along. While the resistance to financial shocks is Nasdaq's strength, it's frustrating that the benefits of the Trump sector will be small next year. I believe the strength of the S&P will be particularly evident next year, but in order to climb the regulatory slope next year without changing positions, I'm thinking of adding a boost from the utilities and financial sector ETFs with Trump's support to overcome the challenge.
I don't like the financial sector, but just watching silently is not my style ^_^ Once the fuel runs out, it's time to detach. After the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings are over, let's go!
I don't like the financial sector, but just watching silently is not my style ^_^ Once the fuel runs out, it's time to detach. After the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings are over, let's go!
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$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ Already, by raising tariffs significantly on China, Canada, and Mexico, America is coming to nip in the bud the route-exporting of Japanese companies. The goal of setting up factories in the USA, hiring people, and paying taxes if you want to do business in America is undoubtedly clear. I think the card for the remaining tariff deal with Japan is still a request for rate hikes. According to Trump, the unfair exchange rate manipulation would be the low-interest state despite the inflationary state in import prices. In the early stages of the current policy, it is within the range of protecting domestic companies because factories cannot be built immediately, but there is a high possibility of inflation advancing. Since the tax reduction hole will not be filled up suddenly, forcibly shifting to a strong yen will result in a significant increase in revenue for export companies. If the yen rises, interest rates will also drop, fiscal spending will be constrained, truly a move that kills two birds with one stone. With a significant impact of a strong yen, there are great benefits such as filling tax reduction holes, lowering interest rates, attracting companies, expanding employment, stabilizing prices, and increasing export revenue. However, it is too late and there are many challenges with self-driven rate cuts toward a strong yen. Originally, it is taboo to interfere with policy interest rates in other countries...
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$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ There are decision meetings in early and mid-December, but it may not be possible to have rate hikes and cuts in the same month for the US and Japan. At the moment, looking into next year, with no positive factors for Nikkei exports under the Trump policy, being cautious about narrowing the interest rate gap as seen in August, where the temporary sharp rise in the yen led to a significant drop. In August, the simultaneous increase in the US unemployment rate and the Bank of Japan's rate hike comments contributed to the significant decline based on the mere imagination of a possible recession. If such a scenario were to happen again just before Trump takes office, it feels like the market may remain low. Whether it's US or Japanese stocks, it may be safer to wait for both announcements before making any moves. (*´Д｀*)
The aim behind Trump's trade tariffs is to weaken the dollar and force increased production, employment, and exports in the USA by pressuring foreign investors. I believe they will aggressively tighten the interest rate gap.
The aim behind Trump's trade tariffs is to weaken the dollar and force increased production, employment, and exports in the USA by pressuring foreign investors. I believe they will aggressively tighten the interest rate gap.
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ I think it is difficult to predict the future movements of interest rates influenced by factors such as economic index, policy interest rates, stock price movements, and future policy implementation through technical analysis. However, it may be effective to focus on the direction of the vector from a few months ago to the present. Looking at the possibility of whether the 30-year interest rate, which reached 4.78 on April 22, will continue to decline without exceeding it by the end of the year could be a turning point.
Next year, there are many factors that could raise interest rates, such as the anticipated increase in import prices due to tariffs, a decrease in unemployment rate and increase in wages due to illegal immigration exclusion, increased fiscal issuance of government bonds for tax cuts and various policy implementations. However, if the yields start to approach bond yields as the overvalued stock prices lose momentum, long-term bond yields are expected to decrease even if it is not a recession. While stocks and interest rates are likely to rise for a while due to anomalies and policies, chances are bond yields will definitely decrease after that. If we pass a year, it will be a great opportunity when a global economic downturn phase like the Trump tariffs in around 2018 comes, surely ^_^.
Next year, there are many factors that could raise interest rates, such as the anticipated increase in import prices due to tariffs, a decrease in unemployment rate and increase in wages due to illegal immigration exclusion, increased fiscal issuance of government bonds for tax cuts and various policy implementations. However, if the yields start to approach bond yields as the overvalued stock prices lose momentum, long-term bond yields are expected to decrease even if it is not a recession. While stocks and interest rates are likely to rise for a while due to anomalies and policies, chances are bond yields will definitely decrease after that. If we pass a year, it will be a great opportunity when a global economic downturn phase like the Trump tariffs in around 2018 comes, surely ^_^.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV.US)$ The news is that the PER of stocks has become too high, causing concerns about entering an adjustment phase, and there are no high-growth stocks to be found. Therefore, it is a natural move to put assets into short-term bonds. With that amount of assets, if my principal is guaranteed, I can repay it in a few months and 4% per year is enough, so I will do it all.
The key point here is being ultra-short-term bonds. The roles of short-term and long-term bonds in the market are the same during economic downturns, but they become opposite in periods of uncertain sector fluctuations. Therefore, money is expected to flow from stocks to other sector stocks, cash and short-term bonds, gold, and long-term bonds in the Trump sector, and short-term bonds, cash, and gold. Ultra-short-term bonds are a method of purchasing and redeeming immediately, so it is expected that interest rates will not decrease with Trump's inflation policy for the time being. Therefore, I have deepened my conviction that the long bond bear TMV can go further. ^_^
Well, in the case of Grandpa Buffett, it feels a bit like the end of life, doesn't it?
The key point here is being ultra-short-term bonds. The roles of short-term and long-term bonds in the market are the same during economic downturns, but they become opposite in periods of uncertain sector fluctuations. Therefore, money is expected to flow from stocks to other sector stocks, cash and short-term bonds, gold, and long-term bonds in the Trump sector, and short-term bonds, cash, and gold. Ultra-short-term bonds are a method of purchasing and redeeming immediately, so it is expected that interest rates will not decrease with Trump's inflation policy for the time being. Therefore, I have deepened my conviction that the long bond bear TMV can go further. ^_^
Well, in the case of Grandpa Buffett, it feels a bit like the end of life, doesn't it?
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$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Semiconductors were slightly up, dragged down but slightly up. When thinking about the next ten years, it's about high tech and semiconductors. However, the market seems to be concerned about next year's sales being tough due to Trump's export restrictions. Otherwise, there wouldn't be a decline after NVDA's earnings. Gold went up, but the money is not flowing into bonds. Looking at the heat map, NAS's weaknesses in finance and energy are good every day, so it seems that the market is shifting its focus to the idea of the whole next year. If that's the case, adding electrical utilities and financial ETFs next year should solve the issue. Maybe things will be like this until we see the actual regulatory details. If sales grow under the Trump administration, we should break out of this sideways trend.
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. I will also include defense. ^_^
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ ICBM launch, a major negative in economic indicators, a significant increase in unemployment insurance continuation claims, even with the triple bad news! NVDA is down a bit but still rising, so it is not due to its impact, but seen as a sign of market expectations for next year ^_^ Removing illegal immigrants next year will greatly improve the unemployment rate, and wage increases are likely due to labor shortages. For now, the unemployment rate indicators are not a threat, as they only work positively regardless of what happens by the end of the year. We are already seeing Trump mode slowly creeping in for next year, this ^_^
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV.US)$Today, with the launch of an ICBM, an unexpected negative economic indicator, and a threefold increase in continued unemployment insurance claims of 0.03 million people, despite rising interest rates! It seems like nothing other than a clear indication of high inflation expectations for next year. It is likely that with each implementation of policies that suggest some form of high inflation after taking office, TMV will increase significantly. Initially, either a large tariff or the exclusion of illegal immigrants. Both scenarios are likely to lead to further increases! If the FOMC continues to rise, should I make a big entry ^_^? I have nothing but expectations for Trump and TMV.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV.US)$ The candlestick chart of the 20-year bond at night shows a different pattern from other annual bonds during that time. Perhaps hedge funds are buying and holding to prevent prices from falling during low trading nights. So, I think they will sell at market open or european index open, causing long-term 30-year bonds to also see an increase in interest rates. Expecting TMV to rise slightly today ^_^.
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$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ During the summer, people take a vacation from the market and re-enter in November to make some quick money. Americans start getting excited a month before Christmas. They quickly shift from being negative to optimistic. They take profits before the year-end and re-enter after New Year's. Their concerns about Trump have transformed into hopes. Americans are already starting to think that tariffs, immigrant exclusion, and easing are all going to benefit America - at least that's what I, personally, think ^_^ There are visible uncertainties but it's not completely without worries. We might see a minor rally, so if it drops, just think of it as a buying opportunity for next year ♪(´ε｀ )
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