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The depreciation of the yen progressed to the point where 162 yen was added the other day, but it completely turned around and the yen appreciated to the point where it was cut 155 yen.
The American presidential election is becoming extremely confusing, and uncertainty about the future of exchange rates that cannot even be read is increasing.
However, aside from short-term fluctuations, I think the yen will depreciate over the long term.
I'm referring to Daisuke Karakama from Mizuho as evidence for thinking so.
- YouTube
Considerations from not only the Japan-US interest rate difference but also the trade balance and its breakdown are persuasive.
So, if the depreciation of the yen progresses as a long-term trend, I think the first individual investors should do is “continue long-term funded diversified investments.”
It's always an easy opinion that “amateurs should buy Orkan,” but personally, I also like foreign currency bonds, and I have a few.
I think “if you don't live with foreign currency, you should invest in yen” is true, but once in a while I want to go to Hawaii, so I can add up my travel funds, and if necessary as yen, I can transfer yen.
Unlike stocks and mutual funds...
The depreciation of the yen progressed to the point where 162 yen was added the other day, but it completely turned around and the yen appreciated to the point where it was cut 155 yen.
The American presidential election is becoming extremely confusing, and uncertainty about the future of exchange rates that cannot even be read is increasing.
However, aside from short-term fluctuations, I think the yen will depreciate over the long term.
I'm referring to Daisuke Karakama from Mizuho as evidence for thinking so.
- YouTube
Considerations from not only the Japan-US interest rate difference but also the trade balance and its breakdown are persuasive.
So, if the depreciation of the yen progresses as a long-term trend, I think the first individual investors should do is “continue long-term funded diversified investments.”
It's always an easy opinion that “amateurs should buy Orkan,” but personally, I also like foreign currency bonds, and I have a few.
I think “if you don't live with foreign currency, you should invest in yen” is true, but once in a while I want to go to Hawaii, so I can add up my travel funds, and if necessary as yen, I can transfer yen.
Unlike stocks and mutual funds...
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$USD/JPY(USDJPY.FX$
The yen appreciated by 4 yen in just about an hour, but didn't the Ministry of Finance take firm measures against rapid changes in exchange rates?
The yen appreciated by 4 yen in just about an hour, but didn't the Ministry of Finance take firm measures against rapid changes in exchange rates?
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$USD/JPY(USDJPY.FX$
I wrote let's meet for 155 yen the other day, but I had no idea they would get together so soon.
Moreover, even during this period, they only talk about watching closely. It's like saying this can't be done behind the scenes, isn't it?
Did you see Suzuki's expression at the press conference? It's still leading in reverse, right![]()
So even if we get together so many times, we won't talk, so let's all decide when we meet next.
I wrote let's meet for 155 yen the other day, but I had no idea they would get together so soon.
Moreover, even during this period, they only talk about watching closely. It's like saying this can't be done behind the scenes, isn't it?
Did you see Suzuki's expression at the press conference? It's still leading in reverse, right
So even if we get together so many times, we won't talk, so let's all decide when we meet next.
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I think index funded investments are good for people who can't use their time at all.
However, people who are serious about investing are making tremendous returns by investing in individual stocks before this AI-related stock market rate or now.
It's a sensory value, but this market price is similar to the post-COVID-19 craze market.
It may already be over, and maybe it's still going on.
If you set a loss cut line to a certain extent and distribute stocks, the risk may be small and you may be in a rare opportunity in life where you may be able to get ridiculous returns.
It would be a waste not to take advantage of this market.
An index alone would be a waste.
Why don't you take a step into active investing?
However, people who are serious about investing are making tremendous returns by investing in individual stocks before this AI-related stock market rate or now.
It's a sensory value, but this market price is similar to the post-COVID-19 craze market.
It may already be over, and maybe it's still going on.
If you set a loss cut line to a certain extent and distribute stocks, the risk may be small and you may be in a rare opportunity in life where you may be able to get ridiculous returns.
It would be a waste not to take advantage of this market.
An index alone would be a waste.
Why don't you take a step into active investing?
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The Speaker of the House of Representatives compiled a compromise plan with the Democratic Party on a consolidated budget last month. This caused the anger of conservative hardliners in the Republican Party, and the chairman was forced to be dismissed.
The government's financial budget has been secured until mid-November, but we won't know the future. If the bridging budget is not settled this time, the following is expected.
・Closure of government offices (government offices, national parks, national galleries, national museums, etc.)
・Paid leave for civil servants → unpaid leave → temporary dismissal
・The rise in the unemployment rate
・Consumption deceleration → deterioration in corporate performance
Originally, the ability of the Speaker of the House of Representatives who organized the Democratic Party tends to be evaluated, but this time they were driven into it. I would like to pay attention to whether conservative hardliners in the Republican Party can firmly take this responsibility and put together the next consolidated budget.
The government's financial budget has been secured until mid-November, but we won't know the future. If the bridging budget is not settled this time, the following is expected.
・Closure of government offices (government offices, national parks, national galleries, national museums, etc.)
・Paid leave for civil servants → unpaid leave → temporary dismissal
・The rise in the unemployment rate
・Consumption deceleration → deterioration in corporate performance
Originally, the ability of the Speaker of the House of Representatives who organized the Democratic Party tends to be evaluated, but this time they were driven into it. I would like to pay attention to whether conservative hardliners in the Republican Party can firmly take this responsibility and put together the next consolidated budget.
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This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
The US bond exchange rate is in the midst of a historic bear market。 $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ with $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield(US30Y.BD$ exceeded 5.05% and 4.88% at one point, respectively, and bothThe highest level since 2007 was set. The situation changed from the record low level (0.31%) in 2020/3, which was shockingly set immediately after the spread of the novel coronavirus. While the turmoil of rising interest rates is unstoppable,Is this a good time to buy?
What is the cause of the sharp drop in US long-term government bonds?
What is the reason for such a sharp rise in US bond yields? Until now, it has been shrouded in mystery, and there are few fundamentals that can be perfectly explained. Mr. Daleep Singh, a former senior official of the New York Federal Reserve and current chief global economist of PGIM Fixed Income, commented on this situation as follows.
This is inexplicable; theories based on all fundamentals are not persuasive.
Have US long-term government bonds bottomed out?
The Federal Reserve...
The US bond exchange rate is in the midst of a historic bear market。 $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ with $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield(US30Y.BD$ exceeded 5.05% and 4.88% at one point, respectively, and bothThe highest level since 2007 was set. The situation changed from the record low level (0.31%) in 2020/3, which was shockingly set immediately after the spread of the novel coronavirus. While the turmoil of rising interest rates is unstoppable,Is this a good time to buy?
What is the cause of the sharp drop in US long-term government bonds?
What is the reason for such a sharp rise in US bond yields? Until now, it has been shrouded in mystery, and there are few fundamentals that can be perfectly explained. Mr. Daleep Singh, a former senior official of the New York Federal Reserve and current chief global economist of PGIM Fixed Income, commented on this situation as follows.
This is inexplicable; theories based on all fundamentals are not persuasive.
Have US long-term government bonds bottomed out?
The Federal Reserve...
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The rise in interest rates is unstoppable. The market interest rate on 10-year bonds has exceeded 4.5%. If this doesn't fall, stock prices won't rise. Will interest rates fall? →There are no factors that go down easily.
Chairman Powell said that the reason for the rise in interest rates is ①Strong American economyand ②Increase in government bond issuanceIt is explained by The economy is slowing down, but the economy is strong. It's a somewhat contradictory phrase, but GDP is actually growing. Government debt is also growing. The reality is the same in every country where government bonds are issued in large numbers and bridged loans are made. If new government bonds are issued, old government bonds can be sold. This is a factor that increases bond yields. One more thing: if bonds are issued, stocks are sold in order to buy them. Since such a cycle is taking place, it is difficult for the stock market to rise.
“Stock returns are more amazing than bond yields, aren't they?” “The economy is strong and performance is really good, isn't it?” If you hear voices like this, stock prices will rise. That may be the financial results season starting in mid-October or later.
Chairman Powell said that the reason for the rise in interest rates is ①Strong American economyand ②Increase in government bond issuanceIt is explained by The economy is slowing down, but the economy is strong. It's a somewhat contradictory phrase, but GDP is actually growing. Government debt is also growing. The reality is the same in every country where government bonds are issued in large numbers and bridged loans are made. If new government bonds are issued, old government bonds can be sold. This is a factor that increases bond yields. One more thing: if bonds are issued, stocks are sold in order to buy them. Since such a cycle is taking place, it is difficult for the stock market to rise.
“Stock returns are more amazing than bond yields, aren't they?” “The economy is strong and performance is really good, isn't it?” If you hear voices like this, stock prices will rise. That may be the financial results season starting in mid-October or later.
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アーロンチャッチ : I also watched Karakama-san's video. So I'm optimistic that the yen won't appreciate much. You might be freaked out if it's 120 yen or so.