1. Non-farm payroll employment
∙ 250,000 increase from the previous month (significantly exceeding the expected 150,000 increase)
∙ The largest increase in 6 months
- The number of employees in the previous month has been revised upward to an increase of 0.15 million 9000 people (preliminary value: an increase of 0.14 million 2000 people).
- The total number of employees in July and August has been revised upward by 0.07 million 2000 people.
2. Unemployment Rate
- The unemployment rate in September decreased to 4.1%.
- Market expectations are at 4.2%.
- The previous month was at 4.2%.
3. Average Hourly Wage
- Increased by 4% compared to the same month last year (market expectation: an increase of 3.8%).
- In the previous month, there was a 3.9% increase.
- Month-on-month comparison shows a 0.4% increase (market estimate of 0.3% increase).
- In August, there was a 0.5% increase.
- Growth in wages for production and non-managerial positions slowed to 3.9%.
4. Trends in Employment by Major Industries
Industries that drove the increase in employment
- Entertainment and Hospitality
- Healthcare
・Government agencies
・Manufacturing industry saw a decrease in employment for the second consecutive month
・Employment diffusion index (DI) at a high level since January
・The possibility of a significant rate cut (0.5 points) at the November FOMC meeting has diminished
・In the interest rate swap market, the anticipation of a rate cut in November has retreated to 25 basis points
6. Special Factors
・Anticipated reflection of Boeing workers' strike in October statistics
...

This report introduces the market outlook for the first half of 2024 and the hot stocks (industries) of Japanese stocks. The examples of stocks mentioned in this report do not provide any recommendations or trading guidance. We hope you focus on the industries and reasons that may have an impact based on the possible situations in the 2024 market in Japan and the USA.
■ Outlook for the US Market
<Once Every Four Years Presidential Election That Causes Turbulence>
The trends in the US stock market will also have an impact on the Japanese stock market.
Of particular interest is the United States presidential election to be held on November 5th this year.
Especially in the S&P 500, there is data suggesting that stock prices tend to rise during US presidential election years.
Even in recent years, both during the election of President Trump in 2016 and the election of President Biden in 2020, there has been a significant increase in stock prices afterwards.
However, there have been fluctuations along the way.
In 2016, the unexpected shock of the United Kingdom's EU exit in June, and in 2020, the stock market experienced a major crash due to the new coronavirus pandemic in March.
Also, in the period from September to October just before the election, the stock market tends to become unstable due to risk aversion movements.
In 2024, the first half of the year will be dominated by geopolitical risks such as the presidential election in the United States and Japan's consumption tax increase.

The depreciation of the yen progressed, and the dollar-yen exchange rate on the 29th hovered in the $1 = 146 yen range. The background is that the outlook that high interest rates in the US will continue for the time being spread based on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, and the interest rate difference between Japan and the US was once again aware.
According to Bloomberg, the Goldman Sachs Group predicts that “if the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish attitude, the yen will add 1 dollar = 155 yen in the next 6 months.” 1 dollar = 155 yen is equivalent to the depreciation level of the yen since 1990/6.
Export-related stocks will benefit from the depreciation of the yen progressing. Already in the first quarter financial results, the depreciation of the yen contributed to a rise in business performance for stocks with a high overseas sales ratio. It can also be seen from the financial results briefing materials of the 10 major companies with high overseas sales ratios that they have greatly benefited from exchange rates.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, out of 68 major companies that disclosed exchange rate effects of financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6, etc., 90% of companies benefited in the direction of profit increase, and the increase in profit due to exchange accounts for 50% of the overall operating profit increase.
The average exchange rate for financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6 is 1 dollar = 137 yen...

To all moomoo users
Thank you for always using the moomoo app.
Are you having trouble gathering information on institutional investors' trading trends, analyst evaluations, etc.? This information is important data that determines investment strategies, and is essential for investors.
With this release, in addition to the overall evaluations of existing analyst evaluations and target stock price predictions,Institutional Investor/ Analyst Evaluation Datahas been added, and it is now possible to grasp it in more detail. Make the most of this powerful tool and explore investment opportunities.
More detailed assessment data: check agencies/analysts' past evaluations at a glance
Newly added“Details”On the tab, Wall Street'sApproximately 250 financial institutionswithOver 4000 analystsEvaluation data contributed by is included. In addition, past evaluations can also be viewed, so you can check how accurate predictions have been made by specific institutional investors and analysts in the past.
Judge analysts' evaluations comprehensively based on hit rate and profit ratio
Of the analysts' pastThe median ratewithAverage rate of returnTo...