Today I'm going to talk about the US Fear Index.
The rise in VIX is attracting attention, but what should be paid more attention to than that is the bond market.
MOVE is the bond fear index = volatility, and it was around 100 in normal times for a few years. The perception is that if it exceeds 120, it is over 25 in VIX. This is just me guessing from past data without permission, so it's not accurate at all (laughs)
In many cases, the stock market is optimistic and the market price is misread, but the bond market is cautious and generally more accurate than the stock market.
The market size is also completely different, isn't it?
So even if VIX goes up, you don't have to worry too much while MOVE is under 100 or around 100.
However, when MOVE exceeds 120, it is a yellow light.
MOVE reached 120 yesterday. After that, it dropped slightly to 119.6.
When this happens, it means that the bond market has also entered an alert mode, so the VIX rise from here on will lead to a major decline in stock prices.
Japanese stocks have also risen, and the short and CALL sales situation continues.
The atmosphere is half-hearted, and you can do it right away even if you go in for a long time.
The movement from the morning of the 17th today is exactly this kind of market movement...

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