来週の日銀会合、弱めの個人消費で追加利上げ判断が複雑化－関係者
更新日時 2024年7月22日 19:55 JST(一部抜粋)
消費回復を今後のデータで確認へ、今回は見送りが妥当と一部当局者
物価が予想通りに推移で一部当局者は前向き、機会逃すリスクも意識
日本銀行が来週開く金融政策決定会合では、足元で弱めの個人消費が追加利上げに踏み切るかどうかの判断を複雑化させている。複数の関係者への取材で分かった。

There is a possibility that good financial results will stop the decline in the S&P 500 type - MLIV survey
2024/7/22 19:09 JST (some excerpts)
Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect financial results to boost the S&P 500
Did Magnificent Seven increase in profit by about 30% in the second quarter? - JP Morgan
There are also Wall Street experts who are prepared for summer adjustments in response to recent stock price declines, but respondents to the Bloomberg “Markets Live (MLIV) Pulse” survey anticipate that the latest corporate financial results will once again bring vitality to the S&P 500 stock price index.
　　The financial results season is now in full swing ahead of financial results announcements for major US companies such as Google's parent company Alphabet and Tesla within a few days. Nearly two-thirds of the 463 survey respondents expect financial results to boost the S&P 500. About half of the respondents expect that the financial results of US companies in the next few months will be better than in the first half of this year.

好調な米小型株、上昇維持を後押しできる材料は不十分－ウィルソン氏
2024年7月22日 21:18 JST(一部抜粋)
米小型株の最近のアウトパフォームはテクニカルな抵抗に直面しており、長期的に上昇を後押しするファンダメンタルズの要素に欠けていると、米モルガン・スタンレーの米国株担当チーフストラテジスト、マイク・ウィルソン氏が指摘した。
　　インフレ減速やトランプ前大統領返り咲きの可能性といった材料を追い風にラッセル2000指数は７月にこれまで6.7％上昇と、Ｓ＆Ｐ500種株価指数の同0.8％高を上回るパフォーマンスを出している。米消費者物価指数（ＣＰＩ）が市場予想を下回ったことから、米連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）による利下げ観測が強まった。

If Trump wins, the dollar will rise, contrary to what he said - Deutsche Bank and Barclays
2024/7/22, 19:19 JST (some excerpts)
Trump recently stated that a strong dollar is reducing the competitiveness of the United States
Inducing a depreciation of the dollar is “very difficult” - Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank and Barclays strategists predicted that the dollar would rise if US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the election. Mr. Trump recently made a statement hoping for a depreciation of the dollar.
In a report on the 22nd, Deutsche Bank argued that inducing a depreciation of the dollar is “extremely difficult” because intervention using huge sums of money or policies that encourage large capital outflows from the United States are necessary in order to induce depreciation of the dollar. Barclays encouraged customers to take advantage of the recent depreciation of the dollar to rebuild their dollar long positions.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF(SOXL.US)$
For L to be bullish, it is necessary to somewhat accept a level of 51.21 fib, which is consistent with 50 days per hour. If not, you'll just get rejected in that area

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF(SOXL.US)$
Optre information for reference
Options Trader Watchlist 2024/7/21
CRWD-Microsoft Cloud Strike issues have caused “the biggest IT failure in history.” Further downsides are likely to occur after Friday. sold out. A put under $300 seems good for a move below $296.
The AMD stock price closed below the 200EMA. Semiconductor stocks are on a downward trend and appear weak. I'm looking for puts below $150 towards $140. Stock prices are weak against indicators.
TSM - Shares were sold out after Trump questioned America's obligation to defend Taiwan. A $150 retest is imminent. The stock price closed below 50 EMA. A drop below $165 looks good.
ELV - Stock prices fell due to financial results reports. Testing $500 long-term support. It falls below that level. Let the stock price drop below that level and close the deal...

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF(SOXL.US)$
As uncertainty increases, volatility increases
N is 122-123 or tonight's high 125Even if it falls, it may stop at 118-116
There was good news, so tonight's drop to 113 is unlikely
Semiconductor-related stocks are expected to trend upward.
Maybe seat belts are necessary due to the upward trend
Tesla needs to break 248 for downside pressure to be ineffective
Tonight I feel like the mood is different from last weekI feel like the mentality of American investors is different, and it seems like there won't be a major decline
Expectations are off, and if N is 113, you may feel unwell

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF(SOXL.US)$
For some reason, we can see an upward trend in the market as a whole
According to last week's market trends, the S&P 500 fell about 2%, and the NASDAQ fell 3.7%
Will Tesla and Google settle accounts this week, PCE on Friday, will this change the situation
Grandpa Biden has withdrawn and announced that he will support Vice President Harris
Market participants are somewhat confusedInvestors are wondering if they should continue 'Trump stock trading' in light of Grandpa Biden's decision
In America, I'm starting to feel more uncertain than news etc.
Traders are considering whether Vice President Harris can gather enough momentum to challenge Grandpa Trump. As a result, the market is usually expected to fall into a cautious mode, such as selling off Trump-related high-profile stocks and causing short-term volatility
because vice president harris is a hyenaOld Trump said it was American national unity, but with Vice President Harris appearing, he became aggressive and ran...

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$
If you're a Tesla fan, read this 👇
In the second quarter, Tesla saw sales decline for the third consecutive quarter, with Tesla's new car registrations in California falling by 24% compared to the same period last year.
According to a report by the California New Car Dealers Association, Tesla's electric vehicle market share fell to 53.4% from 64.6% the previous year.
Overall, Tesla's sales in California fell 17% this year.
Despite this slump, the Model Y is still the best-selling car in the state.
Even as it expands further, Tesla continues to be the world's most valuable car manufacturer with a total market capitalization of $763 billion.
This far exceeds Toyota's $TM, which maintains the second position with a market capitalization of $271 billion.
​

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF(SOXL.US)$
Tonight's predictions will be posted at 22:00
The decline was expected for Monday, but I feel like the atmosphere has changed from last week
It may be unlikely that N will fall to 106-113
Old Biden has withdrawn, and the Bulls are lively
But that doesn't mean it's different from when Grandpa Trump has an advantage
According to current predictions, if N opens and maintains without falling below 118.8, it will rise
Maybe there's a big donden spatulasit's hard to predict