About 100 years ago, the USA enacted tariff laws, which led to a global trade war and exacerbated the Great Depression. Currently, President Trump believes that unlike back then, the world has changed enough to avoid such situations. However, there are concerns that his policies could lead to a recession in the USA, a slowdown in the global economy, and even the collapse of the post-war international order.
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Ben Harburg, managing partner of Novo Capital and portfolio manager of Core Value Alpha, has expressed his views on the impact of tariffs on the global economy. He suggests that while there are effects from tariffs, there is a high likelihood of increased innovation in the USA.
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Columns The impact of the automotive tariffs from the Trump administration and the outlook for the future.
Jessica Caldwell, the head of the Incyte department at Edmunds, provided her insights on the future outlook for the 25% auto tariffs announced by President Trump. Caldwell discussed whether consumers should consider expediting their auto purchases in anticipation of price increases due to tariffs, the future trends in vehicle pricing, and how Auto Manufacturers might absorb the new tariff costs.
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Concerns about tariffs are casting a shadow over consumer sentiment in the USA. According to a survey released this month by the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index has reached its lowest level in over two years. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations in the same survey have surged to their highest level in 32 years.
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Mike Reynolds, Vice President of the Investment Strategy Department at Glenmede, recommends that investors actively rebalance their portfolios as trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market.
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Andrew Hale, Senior Policy Analyst for Trade Policy at the Heritage Foundation, discusses whether April 2, referred to as "Liberation Day" by President Trump, will mark the beginning of a trade war. Hale points out that the market requires clarity regarding the Trump administration's plans. He also mentions that tariffs could act as a tax on consumers and refers to the potential negative impacts that the newly announced auto tariffs by President Trump could have on the auto manufacturing industry.
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Mr. Jen Flitton, a responsible official from the USA government, expressed his views on the progress of tariff negotiations and dialogues with other countries promoted by the Trump administration. Mr. Flitton mentioned the current negotiating situation and the Financial Estimates for future developments.
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Columns Mr. Ferroli of JP Morgan discusses the decline in confidence among businesses and consumers.
Mike Ferroli, the Chief Economist of JP Morgan in the USA, pointed out that the confidence of businesses and consumers has sharply declined over the past one to two months. According to Ferroli, this decline in confidence is likely to lead to a slowdown in economic activity this year.
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Garrett Watson, Policy Analysis Director of the Tax Foundation, discusses whether Republican lawmakers will extend or make President Trump's tax cuts permanent. He also talks about the positive effects that making the tax cuts permanent could have on economic growth and how tariff revenues might contribute to fiscal matters.
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Columns Pressure on Trump: Voices calling for a reevaluation of AI semiconductor export regulations.
Major technology companies such as NVIDIA and Oracle Corp, along with several foreign government officials, are requesting the Trump administration to reconsider the current regulations limiting the export of AI Chips.
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