明葉 ミミ
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明葉 ミミ
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$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures(MAR5) (NK225main.JP)$ $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$
Seems like a situation where the buying is not coming (like buying back the short sell?), maybe.
In the market where the upper side is likely to be heavy towards the weekend, there is an atmosphere of 🎅not coming.
If you get greedy.
Although most of the positive positions have been unwound, if the rate hike does not happen this month, the buying market may take a break until early summer.
As long as the bad yen depreciation continues, domestic demand will weaken, becoming similar to politicians who cannot even understand that it is causing consumption stagnation.
Will the Bank of Japan be able to make the decision to draw a close to the black history (zero interest rates)?
Seems like a situation where the buying is not coming (like buying back the short sell?), maybe.
In the market where the upper side is likely to be heavy towards the weekend, there is an atmosphere of 🎅not coming.
If you get greedy.
Although most of the positive positions have been unwound, if the rate hike does not happen this month, the buying market may take a break until early summer.
As long as the bad yen depreciation continues, domestic demand will weaken, becoming similar to politicians who cannot even understand that it is causing consumption stagnation.
Will the Bank of Japan be able to make the decision to draw a close to the black history (zero interest rates)?
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明葉 ミミ
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$Quantum-Si (QSI.US)$
The Powell panic is likely to subside soon.
The Powell panic is likely to subside soon.
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明葉 ミミ
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
I was shocked when I saw it at 126 in the morning, but I have recovered a little.
I was shocked when I saw it at 126 in the morning, but I have recovered a little.
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明葉 ミミ
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$C3.ai (AI.US)$
Don't worry because overall it's going down. It might drop until the early 30s. By the way, Software stocks benefit from a weak dollar. It's because of the service exports. C3.ai is making 80% of its profits in America, so it might not matter.
Don't worry because overall it's going down. It might drop until the early 30s. By the way, Software stocks benefit from a weak dollar. It's because of the service exports. C3.ai is making 80% of its profits in America, so it might not matter.
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$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$
Rate cuts are already factored in and there is no impact from the inclusion in the NASDAQ100 index. Regardless of the reason, it is actually experiencing a significant decline instead.
Is it on the 23rd that they decided to include it? Will it bounce back to some extent by then, or will it be painful no matter what since I bought heavily after the decision to include it was made?
Rate cuts are already factored in and there is no impact from the inclusion in the NASDAQ100 index. Regardless of the reason, it is actually experiencing a significant decline instead.
Is it on the 23rd that they decided to include it? Will it bounce back to some extent by then, or will it be painful no matter what since I bought heavily after the decision to include it was made?
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明葉 ミミ
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In the USA market, stocks continued to decline, with yields rising due to the reduced expected interest rate cuts to around 154 yen.
December 19, 2024 6:33 AM JST (excerpt).
The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline since August, falling below the milestone of 6000.
The 10-year bond yield temporarily reached 4.516%, the highest level since the end of May.
On the 18th, the US stock market continued to decline, with a sharp increase in bond yields. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) implementing an expected rate cut, the anticipated number of rate cuts in 2025 decreased from previous estimates, leading to selling in stocks and bonds.
The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline since August, falling below the milestone of 6000. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped by 3.6%, marking a significant decline not seen in 5 months.
December 19, 2024 6:33 AM JST (excerpt).
The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline since August, falling below the milestone of 6000.
The 10-year bond yield temporarily reached 4.516%, the highest level since the end of May.
On the 18th, the US stock market continued to decline, with a sharp increase in bond yields. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) implementing an expected rate cut, the anticipated number of rate cuts in 2025 decreased from previous estimates, leading to selling in stocks and bonds.
The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline since August, falling below the milestone of 6000. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped by 3.6%, marking a significant decline not seen in 5 months.
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明葉 ミミ
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After the FRB announced a rate cut, US stocks fell significantly.
Market concerns about the outlook after the rate cut are considered the cause of the decline.
These movements also have a significant psychological impact. You all may feel the same way, don't you?
Personally, I had some Financial Estimates about the magnitude of the rate cut and the outlook afterwards.
However, the only unexpected thing was the significant decline in US stocks overall.
That being said, if performance is not the reason, I don't think there is a need to be so pessimistic.
Next up is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting.
Due to the impact of the Federal Reserve expecting fewer interest rate cuts next year, the yen depreciation is further advancing.
How will the Bank of Japan respond to this situation?
Is it highly likely that they will move with a focus on the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States?
I will write the scenario for the December FOMC meeting when assuming that 01 is the FRB chairman, based on the discussion before 01 and the FOMC meeting. I will also write the scenario for the December monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan assuming that 01 is the governor of the Bank of Japan in the following post.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$
...
Market concerns about the outlook after the rate cut are considered the cause of the decline.
These movements also have a significant psychological impact. You all may feel the same way, don't you?
Personally, I had some Financial Estimates about the magnitude of the rate cut and the outlook afterwards.
However, the only unexpected thing was the significant decline in US stocks overall.
That being said, if performance is not the reason, I don't think there is a need to be so pessimistic.
Next up is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting.
Due to the impact of the Federal Reserve expecting fewer interest rate cuts next year, the yen depreciation is further advancing.
How will the Bank of Japan respond to this situation?
Is it highly likely that they will move with a focus on the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States?
I will write the scenario for the December FOMC meeting when assuming that 01 is the FRB chairman, based on the discussion before 01 and the FOMC meeting. I will also write the scenario for the December monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan assuming that 01 is the governor of the Bank of Japan in the following post.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$
...
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明葉 ミミ
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$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
It's a slight rebound at 0.1 million~ Some altcoins are showing signs of rebounding on the 4-hour RSI30.👆
The movement within the previous upward channel continues, and this is the first support🫷I think it will rebound up to around 103,000 to 103,500✨
From here on, it's personal trends
Is 0.1 million the bottom?
I don't think so, that's my conclusion.
It's not satisfying from a Fibonacci perspective, and it's hard for me to believe that a grasshopper tower built over a month or more with momentum would end with a 5% adjustment... Therefore, I won't be buying more physical assets, including Alt.
I will also not take profits on the short (partially took profits on MSTR and MSTZ).
I will continue to focus on short-term perspectives and move forward.
I'll check the stocks later, but they're reacting directly... 💦.
VIX is at 20, interest rates have also exceeded 4.5.
There's no point in being pessimistic, I think the next thing to consider is 'when to buy'.
Of course, I think whether the short-term trend is up or down is not yet determined, even for those who are short selling.
Buy until you get home, sell...
It's a slight rebound at 0.1 million~ Some altcoins are showing signs of rebounding on the 4-hour RSI30.👆
The movement within the previous upward channel continues, and this is the first support🫷I think it will rebound up to around 103,000 to 103,500✨
From here on, it's personal trends
Is 0.1 million the bottom?
I don't think so, that's my conclusion.
It's not satisfying from a Fibonacci perspective, and it's hard for me to believe that a grasshopper tower built over a month or more with momentum would end with a 5% adjustment... Therefore, I won't be buying more physical assets, including Alt.
I will also not take profits on the short (partially took profits on MSTR and MSTZ).
I will continue to focus on short-term perspectives and move forward.
I'll check the stocks later, but they're reacting directly... 💦.
VIX is at 20, interest rates have also exceeded 4.5.
There's no point in being pessimistic, I think the next thing to consider is 'when to buy'.
Of course, I think whether the short-term trend is up or down is not yet determined, even for those who are short selling.
Buy until you get home, sell...
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明葉 ミミ
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US stock market = sharply lower, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FRB).
The US stock market closed significantly lower as the Federal Reserve (FRB) implemented a 0.25% rate cut, while also hinting at a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts next year. This led to a downturn from the initial highs.
The FRB lowered the target range for the Federal Funds (FF) rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25-4.50% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on the 17th and 18th. The interest rate and economic outlook released at the same time suggested that the number of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be twice, halving from the previous forecast of four cuts in September. The possibility of a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts has been indicated. Read more
Dow Inc Industrial Stocks 30 fell for 10 consecutive business days, marking the longest continuous decline since October 1974.
The major 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index all declined, led by Real Estate and Consumer Goods.
The US stock market closed significantly lower as the Federal Reserve (FRB) implemented a 0.25% rate cut, while also hinting at a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts next year. This led to a downturn from the initial highs.
The FRB lowered the target range for the Federal Funds (FF) rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25-4.50% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on the 17th and 18th. The interest rate and economic outlook released at the same time suggested that the number of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be twice, halving from the previous forecast of four cuts in September. The possibility of a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts has been indicated. Read more
Dow Inc Industrial Stocks 30 fell for 10 consecutive business days, marking the longest continuous decline since October 1974.
The major 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index all declined, led by Real Estate and Consumer Goods.
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