木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
Have those who say TLT 120 or TMF 100 thought about how high the long-term bond interest rate needs to be to reach those levels?
At this moment, the 30-year long-term bond interest rate
4.05% corresponds to TLT 99
4% corresponds to TLT100
3.95% corresponds to TLT 101
You can roughly estimate the corresponding price based on this.
If the fed fund rate is reduced by 200 bps to 3.5 by the end of 2025, and then the normal curve long-term bond interest rate is inevitably greater than the short-term bond interest rate, I think it will be a great question whether TLT will reach 120.
Of course, whether the United States will decline is another matter.
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
Have those who say TLT 120 or TMF 100 thought about how high the long-term bond interest rate needs to be to reach those levels?
At this moment, the 30-year long-term bond interest rate
4.05% corresponds to TLT 99
4% corresponds to TLT100
3.95% corresponds to TLT 101
You can roughly estimate the corresponding price based on this.
If the fed fund rate is reduced by 200 bps to 3.5 by the end of 2025, and then the normal curve long-term bond interest rate is inevitably greater than the short-term bond interest rate, I think it will be a great question whether TLT will reach 120.
Of course, whether the United States will decline is another matter.
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木易君羊
reacted to
So, the initial jobless claims came in at 227,000, well below the expected 235,000. On the surface, this seems to indicate that the U.S. economy is still holding up pretty well. But, I have to admit, the difference is quite significant, and it makes me a bit skeptical. After all, most analysts were predicting 235,000, so seeing it come in so much lower does raise an eyebrow. It's also worth noting that before the Sahm Rule was triggered, hardly an...
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木易君羊
commented on
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木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Given the current situation, US30Y 4% is an important hurdle, corresponding to a current TLT price of about 100.
Given the current situation, US30Y 4% is an important hurdle, corresponding to a current TLT price of about 100.
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木易君羊
commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ please form a cup and handle
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木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
TLT 95 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.2.
TLT 92 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.5.
TLT 88 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.8.
Predicted year-end US10Y around 4.5.
TLT 95 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.2.
TLT 92 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.5.
TLT 88 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.8.
Predicted year-end US10Y around 4.5.
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$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
USD/JPY 158.3
USDindex 106
Long the yen twice. $Proshares Ultra Yen (YCL.US)$
Short the yen twice. $ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS.US)$
USD/JPY 158.3
USDindex 106
Long the yen twice. $Proshares Ultra Yen (YCL.US)$
Short the yen twice. $ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS.US)$
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木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
GDP slows down, inflation remains high
It seems unlikely to raise interest rates, but cutting rates needs to wait.
Still holding US10Y, add more when it reaches 5.
GDP slows down, inflation remains high
It seems unlikely to raise interest rates, but cutting rates needs to wait.
Still holding US10Y, add more when it reaches 5.
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$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$
Doing nothing with this stock is not like buying SVXY
Doing nothing with this stock is not like buying SVXY
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木易君羊
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (TLTW.US)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
The most important topic now is whether there will be an interest rate cut this year. If not, will TLT actually incur losses?
To discuss this topic, it is necessary to compare with similar dividend yields. The liquidity of the 20-year dividend yield is low, so I will directly compare it with the 30-year yield. Moreover, the composition of TLT will change over time, so it can only be compared with recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4.425
TLT 87.269 (including historical dividends, price at that time 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4.474
TLT 89.894 (add historical dividend price 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54.366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4.478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...
The most important topic now is whether there will be an interest rate cut this year. If not, will TLT actually incur losses?
To discuss this topic, it is necessary to compare with similar dividend yields. The liquidity of the 20-year dividend yield is low, so I will directly compare it with the 30-year yield. Moreover, the composition of TLT will change over time, so it can only be compared with recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4.425
TLT 87.269 (including historical dividends, price at that time 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4.474
TLT 89.894 (add historical dividend price 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54.366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4.478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...
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木易君羊 OP : Below is my personal bond allocation, corresponding to different situations.