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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ I do not give stock recommendations, nor predict whether they will rise or fall. If you are interested, feel free to add me as a friend and chat about technology!
Preface:
With the conclusion of the interest rate meeting, the current situation of the US stock market trend is gradually becoming clear:
Review of last week: The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) showed a trend of forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern last week, with a retest of the 11172 right shoulder bottom, accompanied by gradually increasing volume (volume gradually increased from October 26th to 28th), which was a very good trend. However, I also mentioned key levels at 11170 and 11681, as the dividing points between bullish and bearish sentiments for this head and shoulders bottom pattern, but ultimately it reversed....
2. Summary of the large cap:
This week's situation: Currently, it has broken through the bottom long-short dividing point of 11,172 (now changed to gray, indicating that the point is no longer valid), and influenced by interest rate meetings, non-farm payrolls, etc., it once broke through the positions of 10,954 and 11,676, but failed to break through at the position of 10,676 twice, and on Friday there was a rare significant oscillation within the day, as well as a strong rebound that was unable to move downwards at the bottom, so this trend is suspected to have a plate washing aspect and a strong performance by the bulls, so how to deal with the future market? Focus on trend trading, pay attention to a few key aspects...
Preface:
With the conclusion of the interest rate meeting, the current situation of the US stock market trend is gradually becoming clear:
Review of last week: The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) showed a trend of forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern last week, with a retest of the 11172 right shoulder bottom, accompanied by gradually increasing volume (volume gradually increased from October 26th to 28th), which was a very good trend. However, I also mentioned key levels at 11170 and 11681, as the dividing points between bullish and bearish sentiments for this head and shoulders bottom pattern, but ultimately it reversed....
2. Summary of the large cap:
This week's situation: Currently, it has broken through the bottom long-short dividing point of 11,172 (now changed to gray, indicating that the point is no longer valid), and influenced by interest rate meetings, non-farm payrolls, etc., it once broke through the positions of 10,954 and 11,676, but failed to break through at the position of 10,676 twice, and on Friday there was a rare significant oscillation within the day, as well as a strong rebound that was unable to move downwards at the bottom, so this trend is suspected to have a plate washing aspect and a strong performance by the bulls, so how to deal with the future market? Focus on trend trading, pay attention to a few key aspects...
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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ On November 2nd, the penultimate interest rate meeting of the year for the Fed's FOMC will set the tone for market sentiment over the next month and a half.
Briefly describe the current market environment:
1. With over half of the Q3 earnings season past, the pattern of 'strong industry, weak technology' aligns with the current market's risk preference. The golden growth period for software services is basically over, and investors now prefer companies with strong cash flow.
2. Strong employment and inflation, with economic data mostly exceeding expectations, form the basis for the Fed's bold rate hike moves. However, it is important to note that most economic data are lagging indicators.
3. There is a strong expectation of economic recession, evident from the trading in bonds and money markets, as well as the financial reports of numerous companies. The strength of the US dollar further encourages the inflow of overseas funds.
The Federal Reserve is actually behind the inflation curve, but the market is looking forward to a "loosening of the strings". The latest update of the Atlanta Fed's econometric model indicates that the federal funds rate should exceed 5%, but the market is starting to worry that the Federal Reserve may tighten excessively. However, information from Fed officials suggests that the Fed hopes to prepare investors for a slower pace of rate hikes in the weeks following the November 2 meeting, without causing a sustained rebound in the stock market.
The outcome of the November rate hike meeting, with a 75 basis point increase, is almost certain:
1. A 75 basis point rate hike, signaling a hawkish message
2. The interest rate hike of 75 points...
Briefly describe the current market environment:
1. With over half of the Q3 earnings season past, the pattern of 'strong industry, weak technology' aligns with the current market's risk preference. The golden growth period for software services is basically over, and investors now prefer companies with strong cash flow.
2. Strong employment and inflation, with economic data mostly exceeding expectations, form the basis for the Fed's bold rate hike moves. However, it is important to note that most economic data are lagging indicators.
3. There is a strong expectation of economic recession, evident from the trading in bonds and money markets, as well as the financial reports of numerous companies. The strength of the US dollar further encourages the inflow of overseas funds.
The Federal Reserve is actually behind the inflation curve, but the market is looking forward to a "loosening of the strings". The latest update of the Atlanta Fed's econometric model indicates that the federal funds rate should exceed 5%, but the market is starting to worry that the Federal Reserve may tighten excessively. However, information from Fed officials suggests that the Fed hopes to prepare investors for a slower pace of rate hikes in the weeks following the November 2 meeting, without causing a sustained rebound in the stock market.
The outcome of the November rate hike meeting, with a 75 basis point increase, is almost certain:
1. A 75 basis point rate hike, signaling a hawkish message
2. The interest rate hike of 75 points...
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$DBS (D05.SG)$ Sold earlier than I should but pays for coffee today (Comissions and fees take a good chunk of these sadly)
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$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Now, Hong Kong stocks are in a desperate situation, the worst in more than 20 years since 1998, and A-shares are also in a desperate situation that occurs once every four or five years. Everyone has no confidence in the economy, compounded by geopolitical crises, interest rate hikes, and the impact of the pandemic. In such a moment, it is actually similar to any previous economic double-bottom in history. Take a step forward and have a broad sky ahead, take a step back and fall into an abyss. At such a moment, we need to have sufficient confidence in the country's destiny, just like any previous double-bottom. If we lack belief, we will miss the opportunity for ordinary people to change their destiny, and we will miss the opportunity for a historical-level bottom. In the past, there have been many bears, and each time it proved to be a historical bottom. Today, there are also bearish and pessimistic voices. Do you have enough belief to support yourself through the bottom and welcome a two-year bull market?
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$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ how are the shorts doing today? :)
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