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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ I do not give stock recommendations, nor predict whether they will rise or fall. If you are interested, feel free to add me as a friend and chat about technology!
Preface:
With the conclusion of the interest rate meeting, the current situation of the US stock market trend is gradually becoming clear:
Review of last week: The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) showed a trend of forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern last week, with a retest of the 11172 right shoulder bottom, accompanied by gradually increasing volume (volume gradually increased from October 26th to 28th), which was a very good trend. However, I also mentioned key levels at 11170 and 11681, as the dividing points between bullish and bearish sentiments for this head and shoulders bottom pattern, but ultimately it reversed....
2. Summary of the large cap:
This week's situation: Currently, it has broken through the bottom long-short dividing point of 11,172 (now changed to gray, indicating that the point is no longer valid), and influenced by interest rate meetings, non-farm payrolls, etc., it once broke through the positions of 10,954 and 11,676, but failed to break through at the position of 10,676 twice, and on Friday there was a rare significant oscillation within the day, as well as a strong rebound that was unable to move downwards at the bottom, so this trend is suspected to have a plate washing aspect and a strong performance by the bulls, so how to deal with the future market? Focus on trend trading, pay attention to a few key aspects...
Preface:
With the conclusion of the interest rate meeting, the current situation of the US stock market trend is gradually becoming clear:
Review of last week: The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) showed a trend of forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern last week, with a retest of the 11172 right shoulder bottom, accompanied by gradually increasing volume (volume gradually increased from October 26th to 28th), which was a very good trend. However, I also mentioned key levels at 11170 and 11681, as the dividing points between bullish and bearish sentiments for this head and shoulders bottom pattern, but ultimately it reversed....
2. Summary of the large cap:
This week's situation: Currently, it has broken through the bottom long-short dividing point of 11,172 (now changed to gray, indicating that the point is no longer valid), and influenced by interest rate meetings, non-farm payrolls, etc., it once broke through the positions of 10,954 and 11,676, but failed to break through at the position of 10,676 twice, and on Friday there was a rare significant oscillation within the day, as well as a strong rebound that was unable to move downwards at the bottom, so this trend is suspected to have a plate washing aspect and a strong performance by the bulls, so how to deal with the future market? Focus on trend trading, pay attention to a few key aspects...
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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ On November 2nd, the penultimate interest rate meeting of the year for the US Federal Reserve FOMC will become the basis of market sentiment for the next month and a half.
Briefly describe the current market environment:
1. The third quarter earnings season is more than halfway through, and the pattern of 'strong industry, weak technology' largely matches the current market risk appetite. The golden growth period for software services is basically over, and investors are more focused on companies with strong cash flow.
2. Strong employment and inflation, and most economic data exceeding expectations, provide the basis for the Federal Reserve to dare to raise interest rates in large strides. However, it is important to note that most economic data are lagging indicators.
3. There is a strong expectation of economic recession, as seen from the trading of bonds and money market and the financial reports of many companies. The strong dollar further encourages the inflow of overseas funds.
The Federal Reserve is actually behind the inflation curve, but the market is eagerly anticipating some easing. The latest update of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's economic econometric model shows that the federal funds target rate should be over 5%, but the market is starting to worry that the Fed may tighten excessively. According to recent sources at the Fed, the Fed hopes to prepare investors to slow down the pace of rate hikes in the weeks following the November 2 meeting, but without causing a sustained rebound in the stock market.
Possible outcomes of the November interest rate hike meeting with a 75 basis points increase on the table:
1. Raising interest rates by 75 basis points sends a hawkish signal
2. The interest rate hike of 75 points...
Briefly describe the current market environment:
1. The third quarter earnings season is more than halfway through, and the pattern of 'strong industry, weak technology' largely matches the current market risk appetite. The golden growth period for software services is basically over, and investors are more focused on companies with strong cash flow.
2. Strong employment and inflation, and most economic data exceeding expectations, provide the basis for the Federal Reserve to dare to raise interest rates in large strides. However, it is important to note that most economic data are lagging indicators.
3. There is a strong expectation of economic recession, as seen from the trading of bonds and money market and the financial reports of many companies. The strong dollar further encourages the inflow of overseas funds.
The Federal Reserve is actually behind the inflation curve, but the market is eagerly anticipating some easing. The latest update of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's economic econometric model shows that the federal funds target rate should be over 5%, but the market is starting to worry that the Fed may tighten excessively. According to recent sources at the Fed, the Fed hopes to prepare investors to slow down the pace of rate hikes in the weeks following the November 2 meeting, but without causing a sustained rebound in the stock market.
Possible outcomes of the November interest rate hike meeting with a 75 basis points increase on the table:
1. Raising interest rates by 75 basis points sends a hawkish signal
2. The interest rate hike of 75 points...
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$DBS Group Holdings (D05.SG)$ Sold earlier than I should but pays for coffee today (Comissions and fees take a good chunk of these sadly)
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$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Now, Hong Kong stocks are in a desperate situation, the worst in more than 20 years since 1998, and A-shares are also in a desperate situation that occurs once every four or five years. Everyone has no confidence in the economy, compounded by geopolitical crises, interest rate hikes, and the impact of the pandemic. In such a moment, it is actually similar to any previous economic double-bottom in history. Take a step forward and have a broad sky ahead, take a step back and fall into an abyss. At such a moment, we need to have sufficient confidence in the country's destiny, just like any previous double-bottom. If we lack belief, we will miss the opportunity for ordinary people to change their destiny, and we will miss the opportunity for a historical-level bottom. In the past, there have been many bears, and each time it proved to be a historical bottom. Today, there are also bearish and pessimistic voices. Do you have enough belief to support yourself through the bottom and welcome a two-year bull market?
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$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ how are the shorts doing today? :)
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