$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Economic Observer reporter Liang Ji observes that inflation pressure remains unabated, and monetary tightening continues. The recent monetary policy meeting minutes released by the central banks of USA and Europe reiterated their commitment to tightening monetary policy to curb inflation.
On November 23, 2022, local time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes of its November interest rate meeting. It revealed that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, but at a slower pace, and begin to consider a policy shift after an economic recession. The market expects the Fed to raise rates by the anticipated 50 basis points (BP) in December, marking a possible end to aggressive rate hikes.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the European Central Bank's message on rate hikes appears firm. On November 24, local time, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting. It showed that member countries unanimously agreed that given the current inflation outlook, loose policies should be removed to normalize monetary policy and ensure that demand no longer remains unchecked. The market expects the European Central Bank to further raise interest rates to prevent the risk of inflation expectations derailing.
Amid continued tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the USA, the market is beginning to focus on the signals reflecting economic recession. In November, the PMI of the USA and Europe both fell into the contraction range. The turning point of the US monetary policy may not have arrived yet, and the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates to 5%, which would increase the risk of economic downturn. The trend towards 'stagflation-style' recession in 2023 is a high probability event; China International Capital Corporation believes that, despite the slight cooling in US October CPI inflation, most Fed officials remain cautious and advocate for further interest rate hikes, with a relatively firm attitude. Some officials even warn the market not to overly interpret inflation data. One reason is the limited error tolerance of the Federal Reserve, and the other is that monthly inflation data is not enough to entirely reassure the Federal Reserve.

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$ Investment requires persistence, and for value investors, there are more opportunities in bear markets. There is a fantastic F1 driver named Ayrton Senna, who once said that you cannot overtake 15 times when the weather is good, you can only do it in rainy races, because opportunities always exist in turning points. I even suspect that he is talking about stock trading using racing as a metaphor. He must also trade stocks.
In a bear market, there's not much to do. Under the great belief of 'capital preservation', resolutely say no to all blind and speculative operations. What's left to do every quarter is to repeatedly review my investment portfolio, check the status of each F1 race car, see if there's enough fuel, and consider whether to change the tires, and so on.
So, from an investor's perspective, let's comment on Baidu's financial report.
1. Value-based cash flow business
Baidu's business is diverse and complex, but if we use Occam's razor to analyze it, it can be simplified into two parts, which does not refer to the classification in the official financial report: core revenue + non-core (iQiyi + Ctrip + Kuaishou equity); rather, it is my personal preferred approach: 1. Value-based cash flow business and 2. Cash flow dependent growth business, which is mainly reflected in the financial report as marketing (advertising) revenue and non-marketing (cloud and AI-related) revenue. The valuation of advertising revenue can generally be calculated at 8-10 times P/E ratio, and currently has a stable cash flow basis...

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures(DEC4) (MNQmain.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Recently, some information about Tesla (TSLA) has been summarized, mainly based on the references from Troy Teslike and some information from the USA.
From the current data perspective:
1) Q4 Tesla's production volume is estimated to be 466,165 units, and the estimated annual production volume for 2022 is 1.396 million units.
2) Q4 Tesla's delivery estimate is 0.42 million, with the main delivery locations being the USA and Canada at 0.165 million, China at 0.12 million, Europe at 0.101 million, and other regions at 0.033 million.
3) Looking at the order backlog, there are currently 0.285 million globally, with China's estimate at the end of October being 0.032 million (after the price reduction, the order volume has increased).
Looking at the distribution of battery demand
1) This year, the supply of LFP batteries in China has alleviated the demand in the USA, but IRA will change the supply of the US market in the future.
2) Next year, the main supply of the US market will be the 4680 and 2170 batteries.
Based on Tesla's performance this year, we have seen a concentration on developing autonomous driving technology without directly changing the order volume. This order backlog is rapidly depleting in a highly competitive market. The biggest issue in China is the fluctuation in Model 3 data.
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