Since the government shutdown was avoided, the movement to buy risk assets by selling safe assets has intensified. As a result, long-term interest rates have risen. Uncertainty factors overlap, such as the postponement of government shutdowns, the UAW strike, and the resumption of student loan payments. In this situation, opinions are divided even among Fed directors. Just yesterday, while Director Bowman of the hawk faction insisted on multiple interest rate hikes by the end of the year even if PCE settles down, Vice Chairman Barr (in charge of financial supervision) acknowledged that issues have already shifted to a period of maintaining high interest rates, and interest rate hikes are in the final phase. In the end, Chairman Powell will decide, and it seems that Chairman Powell will agree with Vice Chairman Barr.
The difference in judgment between Director Bowman and Vice Chairman Barr is how much emphasis is placed on financial stability in monetary policy purposes. Vice Chairman Barr said that financial stability has been the biggest concern since the birth of the Fed system in 1913, and he is afraid that raising interest rates too much will destabilize the financial system. In order to achieve the three policy goals of price stability, economic stability, and financial stability with a single policy instrument (interest rate), it is necessary for the Fed to make comprehensive judgments based on exquisite technology. Ba...

The US CPI (August) was stronger than expected, but there was no urgency to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting on September 20th. The composite rate was 0.6%/3.7% and the core rate was 0.3%/4.3%. The super core rate (excluding energy and rent) was 0.4%/4.0%. Although the inflation rate has risen rapidly from 3.2% to 3.7%, it has clearly declined from last year's peak of 9.1%.
The goal of reaching 2% is not yet in sight, and the growth of goods is only a slight 0.2% compared to the previous year, reflecting the stagnant economy. Rent, which accounts for 35% of the allocation, is high at 7.3% compared to the previous year, but it has gradually declined month-on-month. The wages that determine the prices of services are also clearly lower, with a wage growth tracker at the Atlanta Fed showing 5.3%, which is below the pre-pandemic level of 3-4% and down from last year's peak of 6.7%.
In summary, inflation has peaked and there are signs of a decline, but the timing of reaching the target is not visible. There is a need for policy decisions on whether to achieve the target at a higher interest rate or a longer interest rate. From a global perspective, the weak economic performance of other countries...

The possibility of a government shutdown due to a US budget run out (9/30) has increased. The spending bill must pass by the end of September, but the Republican Conservative Hardline Freedom Caucus (Freedom Caucus) is demanding less spending than when the Biden-McCarthy agreement was reached in May, so an agreement is difficult.
As long as there is a high possibility that the government will shut down, it is impossible to short sell US bonds. You can also check past cases. At the time of government shutdowns in 1995-96 and 2018-19, conflicts over budgets stimulated demand for safe assets, and the exchange rate of US bonds rose. It is unlikely that long-term interest rates in the US will rise (price fall) in September.

The reason this article had an impact is because the leak of the YCC fine-tuning by Deputy Governor Uchida (Nikkei newspaper) on July 6 led to actual changes on July 28. Although the media and the leaker are different, it is the same composition. Transmitting the intentions of monetary policy to the market through the media is something that the Federal Reserve (an example being Timothy Aeolus of the Wall Street Journal) has been doing ahead of the Bank of Japan, and it seems that the Bank of Japan has followed suit. Market reception may be skeptical, and some see it as a view of the outlook report next year (January 2024), but I believe that there is a high possibility of lifting the negative interest rate at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting on September 2...
The reason this article had an impact is because the leak of the YCC fine-tuning by Deputy Governor Uchida (Nikkei newspaper) on July 6 led to actual changes on July 28. Although the media and the leaker are different, it is the same composition. Transmitting the intentions of monetary policy to the market through the media is something that the Federal Reserve (an example being Timothy Aeolus of the Wall Street Journal) has been doing ahead of the Bank of Japan, and it seems that the Bank of Japan has followed suit. Market reception may be skeptical, and some see it as a view of the outlook report next year (January 2024), but I believe that there is a high possibility of lifting the negative interest rate at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting on September 22. Communicating through the media can relieve tension and avoid market turmoil.

The interest rate hike skip at the 9/20 FOMC is almost certain unless an unexpectedly large number comes out in the CPI on the 13th. If interest rates are raised one more time, around 4.25% is an appropriate value for the US long-term interest rate. I think the Fed is making a small leap forward in the correctness of its own monetary policy. The governor of the NY Federal Reserve commented that the surprise in recent economic indicators was the high GDP, which eliminated the recession scenario.
Meanwhile, inflation peakouts have been confirmed in price statistics, and as Federal Reserve Board Director Waller pointed out the other day, the tightness of labor supply and demand, which remains the last concern in terms of prices, has begun to loosen. The current US economy is in a dreamy situation where prices will calm down without recession. However, this does not mean that other countries can run the same economy. Concerns about the future are probably excessive appreciation of the dollar.
China is in deflation due to the division between the US and China and shared wealth, Europe is in recession due to structural changes, and Japan cannot see a catch-up of wage increases even if prices rise. Also, if the US economy expands crude oil consumption again, the US, which is an oil exporter, will benefit, and Europe and Japan, which do not produce oil, will suffer from trade deficits. Europe and Japan are crying again this year, and the IMF and G7 countries in October...

The Canadian monetary policy meeting, which predicted the US interest rate hike the day before yesterday, decided to leave it unchanged. This is the conclusion by comparing the signal that excessive demand has settled down, the lag in monetary policy, and the strength of underlying inflation. The Central Bank of Canada before COVID-19 did not move ahead of the Federal Reserve. However, in the interest rate hike curve from spring 2022 onwards, movements that took the lead against the Fed were conspicuous. They made pioneering moves by drastically raising interest rates by 1%, stopping interest rate hikes in March, and raising interest rates again in June.
It is self-evident that the economies of Canada and the United States, where the real economy is connected by the USMCA, are linked. There seems to be a high possibility that Canada's policy interest rate will become the terminal rate (5%) due to the suspension of interest rate hikes this time. Even in the US, where demand is strong, peak inflation is evident. The US is also a little late, and the terminal rate will be determined at 5.5-5.75% at the FOMC on November 1.
For Chairman Powell, the turning point of the FOMC is November, not September. Two years ago, we acknowledged that inflation was not temporary, and last year we decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. We will decide to raise interest rates for the last time this year. The pace of interest rate hikes last year...

After Labor Day, summer vacation is over, and Western investors return to the market. Compared to before summer vacation, it has become quite clear that the Fed's interest rate hike is one more time, and the terminal rate is 5.5-5.75%. Also, even if the ECB raises interest rates in September, there is a growing possibility that it will be the last rate hike. Even if interest rate hikes in Europe and the US end this year, interest rate cuts next year are unlikely. In the future, the market will change from discussions about whether interest rates will be raised or not to discussions based on the assumption of interest rates that do not move.

The US employment statistics (August) confirm the easing of supply and demand in the labor market. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, up from the previous month (3.5%). However, it is within the range (3.4-3.8%) since breaking 4% in 2022. A year ago, it was 3.7%. The number of people employed in the non-farm sector is 187 thousand. This is also a mediocre number. With a workforce of 167 million people, that's not dramatic. The average hourly wage increased by 4.3%, and the average weekly wage increased by 4%, as expected.
What has changed is the labor participation rate and the number of unemployed people. The labor participation rate was 62.8%, which was higher and more significant than a year ago (62.3%) than the previous month (62.6%). Students who have stopped paying student loans may have filled the hole of early retirement for the elderly by starting to work. The number of unemployed people was 6.35 million, which is higher than the previous month (5.84 million) than a year ago (6.02 million). Clearly, the fact that there were over 6 million unemployed people is evidence of an easing in labor supply and demand.
It is important to compare this figure with the number of job offers in the JOLTS recruitment labor transfer survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is a leading indicator. The number of job offers in July was 50 more than the previous month...