$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Economic Observer reporter Liang Ji observes that inflation pressure remains unabated, and monetary tightening continues. The recent monetary policy meeting minutes released by the central banks of USA and Europe reiterated their commitment to tightening monetary policy to curb inflation.
On November 23, 2022, local time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes of its November interest rate meeting. It revealed that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, but at a slower pace, and begin to consider a policy shift after an economic recession. The market expects the Fed to raise rates by the anticipated 50 basis points (BP) in December, marking a possible end to aggressive rate hikes.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the European Central Bank's message on rate hikes appears firm. On November 24, local time, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting. It showed that member countries unanimously agreed that given the current inflation outlook, loose policies should be removed to normalize monetary policy and ensure that demand no longer remains unchecked. The market expects the European Central Bank to further raise interest rates to prevent the risk of inflation expectations derailing.
Amid continued tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the USA, the market is beginning to focus on the signals reflecting economic recession. In November, the PMI of the USA and Europe both fell into the contraction range. The turning point of the US monetary policy may not have arrived yet, and the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates to 5%, which would increase the risk of economic downturn. The trend towards 'stagflation-style' recession in 2023 is a high probability event; China International Capital Corporation believes that, despite the slight cooling in US October CPI inflation, most Fed officials remain cautious and advocate for further interest rate hikes, with a relatively firm attitude. Some officials even warn the market not to overly interpret inflation data. One reason is the limited error tolerance of the Federal Reserve, and the other is that monthly inflation data is not enough to entirely reassure the Federal Reserve.

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$ Investments require a bit of persistence, and when it comes to price investing, there are only many bear market opportunities. There is an awesome F1 driver named Elton Senna. He once said that when the weather is nice, you can't overtake 15 times; you can only do it when it's raining, because opportunities are always at a turning point. With this statement, I doubt he is borrowing a racing car and talking about stock trading. He must be trading stocks too.
There isn't much that needs to be manipulated in the bear market. Supported by the great belief of “saving capital,” we resolutely say no to all foolish and ridiculous operations. All that's left to do every quarter is to sort out my investment portfolio over and over again and check how each F1 car is in good condition, is there not enough fuel? Do you want to protect your tires, Yunyun.
So let's review Baidu's earnings report from an investor's perspective.
1. Value-based cash flow business
Baidu's business is complex, but using Occam's razor to break it down, it can simply be divided into two parts. This does not refer to the official financial report's classification: core income+non-core (iQiyi+Ctrip+Kuaishou's equity); rather, my personal favorite division: 1. Value-based cash flow operations and 2. Growing businesses require cash flow, which are mainly reflected in financial reports as marketing (advertising) revenue and non-marketing (non-advertising, mainly including cloud and AI-related) revenue. The valuation of advertising revenue can generally give a price-earnings ratio of 8-10 times, and the current cash flow base...

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$   $Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures(DEC4) (MNQmain.US)$   $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Recently, some information about Tesla (TSLA) has been summarized, mainly referring to Troy Teslike and some information from the USA.
From the current data:
1) Q4 Tesla's production forecast is 466,165 units, with an estimated annual production of 1.396 million units in 2022.
2) Q4 Tesla's delivery forecast is 0.42 million, mainly distributed in the USA and Canada with 0.165 million, China with 0.12 million, Europe with 0.101 million, and other regions with 0.033 million.
3) Looking at the order backlog, there are currently 0.285 million globally. In China, the estimate at the end of October was 0.032 million (after the price reduction, the order volume increased).
From the perspective of battery demand allocation.
1) This year, LFP supply from China has alleviated the demand in the USA, but next, IRA will change the supply in the US market.
2) Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries will be the main supply in the US market.
From Tesla's performance this year, we see that focusing on developing autonomous driving technology has not directly resulted in changes in orders. This order backlog is rapidly depleting in a highly competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the fluctuation in Model 3 data.
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