$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Basic judgment skills are necessary. If the US dollar keeps rising, do you still think buying TLT would be profitable? Be careful not to fall into a deep trap. The truly safe buying point is when a major recession is confirmed to bring interest rates down to 0, instead of the current situation where there is a possibility of soft neutral interest rates maintaining at 3%. Do not believe in some brain-damaged internet celebrities who have lost their hard-earned money.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ If there is a soft landing, the neutral interest rate will still need to decrease, but to a lesser extent. It is close to the low point of 94.8, unless interest rates do not decrease in the next few years, unemployment does not rise, and the economy does not cool down. If a recession is confirmed, this has already peaked. When the market starts trading the recession, it will rise. The opinion is for reference only, please ignore if you do not agree, no need for debate.

Heading into October, surging U.S. Treasury yields are once again causing turbulence in global financial markets and raising investor concerns. Last week saw the $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ surge above 5%, a level not seen in 16 years. After the $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ climbed to 4.85%, market experts predict that the benchmark yield will reach5% for the first time since 2007.
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