Today, on the 4th, MACD Mk2 has been introduced, but there doesn't seem to be anything particularly worth noting compared to yesterday...
Japanese stocks are resilient as the 5MA is trending downward while holding firm. It's quite solid as long as the yen depreciation trend doesn't falter...
The issue is that following the stronger-than-expected results in the ISM non-manufacturing statistics last night, the NY3 market declined slightly. Particularly, the cyclical sectors are weak. The significant decline in the probability of a 0.5% rate cut at the next FOMC to 32.8% seems to be the reason.
I hope the employment statistics today will show a sharp upward trend, but if the results are as expected, the immediate ceiling of US stocks will be definite. I think Japanese stocks are quite heavy in terms of upside potential from here.

Today, on the 30th, we have the WMA Fibonacci band.
Over the weekend, futures were sold down to 37,440 yen, with a low of 37,290 yen, but it's a stronger start than expected, right? It suddenly returned by 1000 yen.
At WMA, the Zero Line = 25WMA is around 37,400 yen. Since it stopped here and rebounded, let's first look for a return to 38,600 yen. Will it continue above this yellow line?
It's being pushed back near 38,400 yen, so there might be a consolidation around the upper 38,000 yen range.

Today, on the 26th, since the sign of the chart itself remains unchanged from yesterday, let's check the flow towards the SQ.
As mentioned in last night's video, the possibility of the scenario at the bottom has significantly diminished. Overseas operations also suggest an upward trend.
Whether this upward trend can be maintained with tomorrow's ex-dividend date and the emergence of a new president.
In the green scenario, it will surpass the high of 9/3 with a mini cup with handle pattern. Taking around 38800 may increase the possibility of temporarily breaking through the 39000 defense. Conversely, if it falls after the 27th and stops at a small decline, the SQ value will be a battle at 38500.
I am envisioning it in this way.

Today, September 23rd, is a holiday, but the futures market is active, so the content will be slightly longer.
So, today's rise is probably due to the impact of the weakening yen, as there is no particular news in Japan.
The spread between the 10-year bond yields of Japan and the United States has fallen by 19.43% from the July high to the September 10th low. During the same period, the high and low of the USD/JPY exchange rate decreased by 13.90%.
In terms of ratio, it is 1.40 times.
Next, in the rebound from the bottom, the yield spread between Japan and the United States increased by +5.42%, and the dollar-yen increased by +3.06%.
The ratio is 1.77 times.
In other words, the yen has not weakened as much as it did when the interest rate differential narrowed.
However, considering the unwinding of the yen carry trade, it is surprisingly returning to a weaker yen. And with the weakening of the dollar and concerns about a rate hike in Japan (concerns for October) receding, the interest rate differential is expanding.
And since the FOMC, the correlation between the dollar/yen and the Nikkei futures has been increasing, resulting in a straightforward rise in futures.
Since the Bank of Japan meeting gave the impression that the dollar/yen will remain firm for at least the next month, if the US economic and employment data this week does not worsen, the stock market is likely to have an upward trend.
Just as a side note, last Friday (the 20th) in NY was Squaring Day, and both the SP500, Nasdaq, SOX, and Russell all closed lower.
However, on the futures basis at the beginning of the week, the Nikkei futures are slightly positive...

Today, the 20th, is a battle between the 25MA and 200MA.
After the FOMC, the SP500 is hitting new highs and Europe and the United States are strong. In response, the Nikkei is also up 700 yen in futures trading.
Both the 25MA: 37,400 and the 200MA: 37,600 broke through in the morning and continue to rise, but the Bank of Japan will have a lunch break. It could be said to be a pre-purchase that incorporates doing nothing, not saying anything significant, or not being able to say anything. I still see it as a market where the 25MA and 200MA are consolidating.
Expecting a settling around 37,500 after the Bank of Japan announcement, but it's also wise to keep in mind a scenario of a significant increase post-announcement.

At last night's FOMC, there was a surprising 0.5% rate cut.
However, since the market was expecting a 0.5% cut up to 65%, stock prices initially rose. However, during Chairman Powell's press conference, he took a tone that somewhat restrained the doves, and as a result, the NY3 index was slightly negative compared to the previous day.
What we need to pay attention to is that the US Growth Value Index (IVW/IVE) continues to decline slightly, and the stock price, SP500, has also turned downward. When the Growth Value Index and the SP500 diverge (opposite behavior) and then the stock price aligns with the direction of the Growth Value Index, a trend will emerge in that direction.
The recent declines from the recent highs have all followed this pattern.
In the midst of relief after the FOMC's passage without incident, the yen weakened and Japanese stocks rose sharply, but it is important to note that US stocks may reach a near-term ceiling.

Today, the 18th, continues to be a battle of the 5MA.
I've presented the MACD Mk2, but it will affect all other short-term charts.
5MA is at 36,240 yen. After 21:30, it finally broke through this level, leading to a higher opening. However, there is also an expectation of a turnaround in the afternoon, so I feel like there will be a consolidation around this area.
So, as expected yesterday, it is likely to continue the triangle consolidation, and we will confirm whether it will bounce up or break the bottom at FOMC.

Today, the 17th is a battle of the 5MA.
Unfortunately, as of 9:25, it is developing into an intraday high and may have a bearish 5MA crossover.
If the 5MA is at 35,260 yen and cannot be surpassed at the closing price, it will become a bearish 5MA crossover, resulting in short-term bounce long settlements, and be judged as a fake rally.
The momentum has also fallen after a sharp rise since 8/16, and the base conditions are still heavy on the upside. There is a possibility of breaking through the bottom... If it can surpass the 5MA at the closing price, it can hold on for now.