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かぶざる Private ID: 182406353
元証券マン、X&YouTube同名、Fincs銘柄分析講師、投資セミナー多数登壇
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    First, I've summarized the current crash and how the decline will stop, so please take a look at it
    Characteristics of former President Trump's economic policy
    ・Tax cuts: Implement corporate tax and income tax cuts to stimulate the economic activity of companies and individuals.
    ・Monetary easing: Demand interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and promote economic stimulus measures.
    ・Reviewing trade relationships: Change tariff policies with China and other trade partners to reduce trade deficits.
    ・Demand an increase in military spending from allies: Call on NATO countries and Japan to increase defense spending.
    ・Denial of excessive global warming concerns: Relaxation of environmental regulations, such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
    The impact of Trump's policies on the market
    ・Dominance of domestic demand stocks: Domestic demand-related stocks (banks, construction, real estate, etc.) have risen due to policies that stimulate domestic demand.
    ・Impact on export stocks: Export-related stocks are negatively affected due to a review of trade relations and the impact of the appreciation of the dollar.
    Impact on Japanese stocks
    ・Advantages of small and medium growth stocks: There are many domestic demand-related stocks in Japanese small and medium cap stocks, and it is easy to benefit from Trump's policy.
    ・Target Sectors: Domestic demand-related (banking/construction/real estate), energy, and defense-related stocks are attracting attention.
    The shift from the depreciation of the yen to the appreciation of the yen...
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    ・Yen appreciation due to Bank of Japan's early interest rate hike observations, risk of economic modulation, and uncertain factors in the US presidential election
    ・After hitting a high on 7/11, the Nikkei Stock Average plummeted and fell 10% or more in 9 business days
    ・The dollar to yen exchange rate is also rapidly appreciating, and sales of Japanese stocks by overseas investors are progressing
    Economic modulation
    ・The US manufacturing business index (PMI) fell below 50, and new home sales also declined
    ・Even though the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) continues to raise interest rates as a countermeasure against inflation, there are signs that the economy is slowing down
    BOJ's Gradual Interest Rate Hike Scenario
    ・In Japan, exchange intervention observations and statements by Liberal Democratic Party politicians promote the appreciation of the yen
    ・A reduction in government bond purchases is predicted at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting from 7/30 to 31, but the possibility of interest rate hikes is low
    US presidential election
    ・Vice President Kamala Harris's approval rating surpasses that of former President Trump in the US presidential election in November
    ・There is a possibility that trends in US stocks and Japanese stocks will be affected by the election situation
      
    A detailed explanation of the Nikkei Average can be found on YouTube!
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    かぶざる commented on
    Visa (V.N) $Visa(V.US)$
    ・The third quarter financial results fell short of market expectations, and revenue fell short of market expectations for the first time in about 4 years.
    ・Net income increased 10% to 8.9 billion dollars, which was lower than the forecast of 8.9 billion 20 million dollars.
    ・The net revenue growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the “first half of the double-digit range.”
    Tesla (TSLA.O) $Tesla(TSLA.US)$
    ・Profit margins declined for the first time in over 5 years due to the 2nd quarter financial results.
    ・The gross profit margin of the automobile business excluding regulated credits was 14.65%, which was lower than the forecast of 16.29%.
    ・Net profit for the second quarter was 1.4 billion 80 million dollars, down from 2.7 billion dollars in the same period last year.
    ・The adjusted profit per share was 0.52 dollars, which was lower than the forecast of 0.62 dollars.
    ・The announcement of RoboTaxi has been postponed to 10/10.
    Alphabet (GOOGL.O) $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$
    ・Sales and profits exceed market expectations in the second quarter financial results.
    ・Sales rose 14% to 84.7 billion 40 million dollars, which exceeded expectations.
    ・Net profit rose 28.6% to 23.6 billion dollars, which exceeded market expectations.
    ・Capital investment is 13 billion dollars, four half by the end of the year...
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    Cloud Strike's disability spills over with unexpected narratives
    $SentinelOne(S.US)$
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    Stocks benefiting from the cloud strike disorderExpand
    かぶざる commented on
    What are the retail sales figures announced at 21:30?
    I'm Kabuzaru, an investment creator who is a former securities man. @kabuzaru
    Retail sales are the total amount of goods and services sold by retail and service businesses.
    It is an important economic indicator showing trends in private consumption, which accounts for approximately 70% of gross domestic product (GDP).
    Retail sales are announced monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau.
    The announcement date is around the 2nd week of the month following the target month.
    Retail sales can be broadly divided into two categories: the “① automobile and similar parts” division and the “② non-automobile” division.
    The automotive and parts division accounts for approximately 40% of total retail sales.
    The non-automotive sector is a division that deals with products and services other than automobiles, such as clothing, appliances, furniture, food, beverages, and services.
    Retail sales have an impact on stock quotes and the Fed's policy.
    ✔ ︎ Stock quotes
    When retail sales exceed expectations, it is taken as an indication of economic expansion, and stock prices tend to rise.
    Conversely, when retail sales fall below expectations, it is taken as indicating a deceleration in the economy, and stock prices tend to fall.
    ✔ ︎ Federal Reserve Policy
    The Federal Reserve suppressed price increases...
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    There is evidence that the intervention was carried out 🔍
    Based on the current account balance forecast for the 16th announced by the Bank of Japan on 7/12, there are widespread observations in the market that yen buying intervention on a scale of 3 trillion to 4 trillion yen was carried out on the night of the 11th.
    According to the Bank of Japan's forecast, the amount of decline due to “fiscal factors” reflecting exchange intervention is 3 trillion170 billion yen, and there is a difference of about 3-4 trillion yen in this figure compared to prior market estimates that do not anticipate intervention.
    Here's why the dollar still hasn't stopped! It's very easy to understand!
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    かぶざる liked and commented on
    Provides servers for data centers and high-performance computers Recent movements are unfortunate, but financial results forecasts for 8/6 are ridiculously bullish... if anything exceeds this, there is a possibility that it will fly over again
    There is also speculative movement, so it seems amazing that there are short loss cuts
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    SMCI (supermicrocomputer)
    3
    PPI (Producer Price Index) is an index for examining price fluctuations of products made by American companies.
    It is an index that indexes prices traded between companies for raw materials and products shipped by producers, and is used as a yardstick to measure price movements.
    Since it shows price trends upstream, it is attracting attention as a leading indicator for downstream CPI (Consumer Price Index) and corporate performance/stock prices.
    Simply put, it is for investigating price fluctuations when a company purchases a product or service. (CPI is the price change when a consumer purchases a product or service)
    In other words, it shows changes in the money that people who make products and grow crops can receive.
    PPI is a clue to know whether prices will rise or fall, and price changes are expressed as a percentage by comparing sales items (approximately 0.01 million items) of US manufacturers with an index (1982 = 100) that measures prices.
    For example, if the PPI is 102, it means that the price has increased by 2%.
    Each of the 3 stages (raw materials, intermediate goods, finished goods) in the production process is measured, but in general, the final finished product...
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    かぶざる commented on
    ✔ ︎ What is CPI?
    CPI stands for Consumer Price Index and is the consumer price index.
    The consumer price index is an index that measures price fluctuations for products and services purchased by general consumers on a daily basis.
    The US Department of Labor announces the CPI every month.
    CPI is an important indicator for measuring the inflation rate in America, and is used when making monetary policy decisions and judging economic trends.
    CPI consists of approximately 200 types of items.
    These items are selected based on the structure of household expenditure, and cover all products and services necessary for daily life, such as clothing, groceries, housing, transportation, education, and medical expenses.
    ✔ ︎ Why is it important?
    The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation down to 2%. Therefore, if the CPI exceeds expectations, there is a high possibility that the Fed will move to raise additional interest rates.
    Specifically, the Fed will try to curb inflation by raising policy interest rates.
    As policy interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, so the risk that the economy will recede increases.
    Meanwhile, if CPI falls short of expectations, the Fed will ease interest rate hikes...
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    $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$
    I feel like it's been a long time since something went up like this in pre-play.
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