The PCE deflator is an index that classifies the total amount of personal consumption expenditure in the United States into categories such as food and housing expenses.
The PCE core deflator, which is also released at the same time, is an index that excludes food and energy from the PCE deflator.
* The FRB pays more attention to this PCE core as a criterion for determining the policy interest rate than CPI and employment statistics.
It is the most important expenditure item that accounts for about 70% of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP), and is an important indicator for understanding the economic situation of the United States.
The PCE is released monthly by the US Department of Commerce.
The PCE is composed of the following items.
※FRBは政策金利を決める基準として、CPIや雇用統計よりも、このPCEコアを最も重視しています。
PCEは、米商務省が毎月発表しています。
- Durable consumer goods: automobiles, furniture, household appliances, etc.
If the PCE is higher than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is accelerating.
On the other hand, if PCE is lower than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is slowing down.
PCE also has a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
The PCE core deflator, which is also released at the same time, is an index that excludes food and energy from the PCE deflator.
* The FRB pays more attention to this PCE core as a criterion for determining the policy interest rate than CPI and employment statistics.
It is the most important expenditure item that accounts for about 70% of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP), and is an important indicator for understanding the economic situation of the United States.
The PCE is released monthly by the US Department of Commerce.
The PCE is composed of the following items.
※FRBは政策金利を決める基準として、CPIや雇用統計よりも、このPCEコアを最も重視しています。
PCEは、米商務省が毎月発表しています。
- Durable consumer goods: automobiles, furniture, household appliances, etc.
If the PCE is higher than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is accelerating.
On the other hand, if PCE is lower than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is slowing down.
PCE also has a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
Translated
6
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$
Reports say that the submission of the annual report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the 2024 fiscal year has been postponed.
Reports say that the submission of the annual report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the 2024 fiscal year has been postponed.
Translated
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
What kind of company is Nvidia?
Nvidia is a company that manufactures high-performance semiconductors (especially graphics processing units called GPUs) used in computer graphics and AI (artificial intelligence) applications.
Gaming, filmmaking, AI research and development, and recently, utilization in various fields such as self-driving cars.
Reasons why Nvidia's financial results are attracting attention:
① At the forefront of the AI boom.
Due to the rapid development of AI technology, many companies are investing in AI. Nvidia's GPU is essential for AI training and inference, and it benefits greatly from this AI boom. Investors are interested in how successful Nvidia is in the AI market, specifically focusing on sales and profits.
② Strength in the gaming market.
Nvidia's GPU holds a strong position, particularly in the high-end PC gaming market. The growth of the gaming market directly impacts Nvidia's performance, making it one of the factors to watch in their financial results.
③ Expectations for new technologies.
What kind of company is Nvidia?
Nvidia is a company that manufactures high-performance semiconductors (especially graphics processing units called GPUs) used in computer graphics and AI (artificial intelligence) applications.
Gaming, filmmaking, AI research and development, and recently, utilization in various fields such as self-driving cars.
Reasons why Nvidia's financial results are attracting attention:
① At the forefront of the AI boom.
Due to the rapid development of AI technology, many companies are investing in AI. Nvidia's GPU is essential for AI training and inference, and it benefits greatly from this AI boom. Investors are interested in how successful Nvidia is in the AI market, specifically focusing on sales and profits.
② Strength in the gaming market.
Nvidia's GPU holds a strong position, particularly in the high-end PC gaming market. The growth of the gaming market directly impacts Nvidia's performance, making it one of the factors to watch in their financial results.
③ Expectations for new technologies.
Translated
22
⚫ ︎ What is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Jackson Hole Economic Symposium)
The Jackson Hole Conference is an economic symposium held every year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, where central bank governors, academics, and policy makers from around the world gather.
It has been hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank since 1982, and is widely known as a place to discuss important issues in the global economy and monetary policy.
Statements and discussions here often have a major impact on global financial markets, and in particular, lectures given by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are attracting attention.
⚫ ︎ Impacts on monetary policy and stock markets
The Jackson Hole Conference is a place where central bank governors from various countries exchange opinions on current economic conditions and the direction of monetary policy, and statements made here are an important signal for the market.
For example, when the Fed chairman mentions interest rate prospects and quantitative easing policies, the market predicts the next trend in monetary policy, and this often has an immediate impact on the stock market, bond market, and exchange market.
Especially in the stock market, if monetary policy is accommodative, stocks...
The Jackson Hole Conference is an economic symposium held every year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, where central bank governors, academics, and policy makers from around the world gather.
It has been hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank since 1982, and is widely known as a place to discuss important issues in the global economy and monetary policy.
Statements and discussions here often have a major impact on global financial markets, and in particular, lectures given by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are attracting attention.
⚫ ︎ Impacts on monetary policy and stock markets
The Jackson Hole Conference is a place where central bank governors from various countries exchange opinions on current economic conditions and the direction of monetary policy, and statements made here are an important signal for the market.
For example, when the Fed chairman mentions interest rate prospects and quantitative easing policies, the market predicts the next trend in monetary policy, and this often has an immediate impact on the stock market, bond market, and exchange market.
Especially in the stock market, if monetary policy is accommodative, stocks...
Translated
7
Microsoft announced that it will change its business segment structure
⚫ ︎ Consolidate sales of “Microsoft 365” into the “Productivity/Business Process” segment
⚫ ︎ Move sales of “CoPilot Pro” to the “Personal Computing” segment
⚫ ︎ Move “Nuance Enterprise” sales to the “Productivity and Business Processes” segment
⚫ ︎ Report sales for “Windows” and “Devices” collectively
★ Revised sales forecast for the fiscal year ending January to March 2025:
・Productivity/Business Process segment: revised upward from 27.7 billion 50 million to 28 billion 50 million dollars
・"Intelligent Cloud” segment: revised downward from 23.8 billion to 24.1 billion dollars
・"Personal Computing” segment: revised downward from 12.2 billion 50 million to 12.6 billion 50 million dollars
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
⚫ ︎ Consolidate sales of “Microsoft 365” into the “Productivity/Business Process” segment
⚫ ︎ Move sales of “CoPilot Pro” to the “Personal Computing” segment
⚫ ︎ Move “Nuance Enterprise” sales to the “Productivity and Business Processes” segment
⚫ ︎ Report sales for “Windows” and “Devices” collectively
★ Revised sales forecast for the fiscal year ending January to March 2025:
・Productivity/Business Process segment: revised upward from 27.7 billion 50 million to 28 billion 50 million dollars
・"Intelligent Cloud” segment: revised downward from 23.8 billion to 24.1 billion dollars
・"Personal Computing” segment: revised downward from 12.2 billion 50 million to 12.6 billion 50 million dollars
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
Translated
7
On the 21st, the US Department of Labor revised the annual increase in the number of employees until March downward by 0.818 million people due to annual revisions
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Translated
7
1
We've arrived in Osaka!
Tomorrow I will be on stage at the 11th corporate investment seminar!
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ There are also plenty of stories like that!
I'm looking forward to meeting many people![]()
We look forward to your seminars and work![]()
Tomorrow I will be on stage at the 11th corporate investment seminar!
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ There are also plenty of stories like that!
I'm looking forward to meeting many people
We look forward to your seminars and work
Translated
7
Yen carry trade (yen carry trade) is a trading strategy in which funds are borrowed in yen with a low interest rate and then the funds are used to invest in high-interest currencies and assets.
It was extremely popular, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s, against the backdrop of Japan's long-standing low interest rate policy.
✔ ︎ Yen carry transaction mechanism
1. Borrow in yen: Borrow Japanese yen at a low interest rate.
2. Investments in high-interest currencies: Exchange borrowed yen into high-interest currencies such as dollars or Australian dollars, and invest in financial products, bonds, stocks, etc. denominated in that currency.
3. Obtain interest rate differences: Profit from the difference between the yield due to the high interest rate of the investment destination and the low interest rate of yen loans. This interest rate difference is called carry (carry).
Please see here for details
✔ ︎ Advantages of yen carry transactions
1. Profit from interest rate differences: The biggest advantage is that you can profit from interest rate differences by borrowing low-interest yen and investing in high-interest assets.
2. Increased asset prices: Carrying transactions can also be expected to increase the prices of high-interest currencies and investment target assets.
✔ ︎ Historical background of yen carry transactions
Circle carry...
It was extremely popular, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s, against the backdrop of Japan's long-standing low interest rate policy.
✔ ︎ Yen carry transaction mechanism
1. Borrow in yen: Borrow Japanese yen at a low interest rate.
2. Investments in high-interest currencies: Exchange borrowed yen into high-interest currencies such as dollars or Australian dollars, and invest in financial products, bonds, stocks, etc. denominated in that currency.
3. Obtain interest rate differences: Profit from the difference between the yield due to the high interest rate of the investment destination and the low interest rate of yen loans. This interest rate difference is called carry (carry).
Please see here for details
✔ ︎ Advantages of yen carry transactions
1. Profit from interest rate differences: The biggest advantage is that you can profit from interest rate differences by borrowing low-interest yen and investing in high-interest assets.
2. Increased asset prices: Carrying transactions can also be expected to increase the prices of high-interest currencies and investment target assets.
✔ ︎ Historical background of yen carry transactions
Circle carry...
Translated
From YouTube
11
1. beginning
Unease is rapidly growing in the American stock market. The closing price of the S&P 500 stock price index on 2024/8/5 was 5186.33 points, 3.0% lower than the previous weekend, and recorded a significant decline rate for the first time in about 1 year and 11 months. Fluctuations in the Japanese stock market and exchange market have had a major impact on this trend. In this report, we will analyze the current state of the American stock market, its background factors, and future prospects.
2. The sharp decline in the S&P 500 and its background
The S&P 500 stock index recorded a 3.00% decline on 8/5. This rate of decline is large since 4.32% on 2022/9/13. In particular, it is believed that the July employment statistics announced on the 2nd fell short of market expectations, spurring the decline in stock prices. Additionally, the rate of decline from the highest price recorded on July 16 (5667.20) has reached 8.49%, and anxiety about the stock market as a whole is growing.
3. Effects of the rewind in carry trade and the appreciation of the yen
The sharp drop in the Nikkei Stock Average in the Japanese stock market and the progress of the appreciation of the yen in the dollar-yen exchange rate caused a rebound in carry trade, and this is S&P...
Unease is rapidly growing in the American stock market. The closing price of the S&P 500 stock price index on 2024/8/5 was 5186.33 points, 3.0% lower than the previous weekend, and recorded a significant decline rate for the first time in about 1 year and 11 months. Fluctuations in the Japanese stock market and exchange market have had a major impact on this trend. In this report, we will analyze the current state of the American stock market, its background factors, and future prospects.
2. The sharp decline in the S&P 500 and its background
The S&P 500 stock index recorded a 3.00% decline on 8/5. This rate of decline is large since 4.32% on 2022/9/13. In particular, it is believed that the July employment statistics announced on the 2nd fell short of market expectations, spurring the decline in stock prices. Additionally, the rate of decline from the highest price recorded on July 16 (5667.20) has reached 8.49%, and anxiety about the stock market as a whole is growing.
3. Effects of the rewind in carry trade and the appreciation of the yen
The sharp drop in the Nikkei Stock Average in the Japanese stock market and the progress of the appreciation of the yen in the dollar-yen exchange rate caused a rebound in carry trade, and this is S&P...
Translated
From YouTube
5
Energy and materials are rising, but this is due to hurricanes and the situation in the Middle East.
Service and transportation, which were bottlenecks, have declined, so overall I like it.
Dollar sales are accelerating, interest rate cuts are boosting.
Service and transportation, which were bottlenecks, have declined, so overall I like it.
Dollar sales are accelerating, interest rate cuts are boosting.
Translated
6
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,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)