$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
First, there were two scenarios in my financial estimates for the end of last weekend:
And the results were:
Hmm, I feel like the financial estimates of the orange line are close, so I have eliminated the scenario of the green line.
Indeed, on Thursday, I didn't think it would drop like that... 💦 It's worth noting that it was supported at 0.236 and on Friday, the employment statistics are expected to show a self-rebound.
What concerns me is that while FEDWATCH is increasingly expecting a rate cut, the interest rate has risen to the mid-4.3 range.
I wonder if the bond market is cracking due to the uncertainty about the future... When bond investors in general are signaling 'uncertainty about which way it will go,' the real answer is that no one really knows...
However, the lingering effects of the strong start of this week are still present, so I expect a light rebound on Monday, with possible selling pressure starting around the 5th and early liquidation in anticipation... It seems like the upside will be heavy until the FOMC and throughout next week from Tuesday.
However, it is said that it may not fall all the way to the financial estimates of (C) now, so the perspective has shifted to not falling that far, rising to around (B), at most around 5600.

$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures(DEC4) (NK225main.JP)$ Ew, I feel sick. This is probably a Piranha Plant.

I bought it for $40 and it's at a paper loss, so I hope the presidential election wins. ˚ ‧ º · (´ฅдฅ｀) ‧ º · ˚.
$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The earnings call for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 is scheduled to be held at 6:00 AM on Thursday, August 29, 2024 Japan time. This briefing It will be delivered in subtitle translation format.If you wish to watch it, "Reservation"button.
◆Precautions
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
自分は下がっても売らない。
どうせ昨年から握ってる勢は、売る必要がない。
Netflix みたいに3分の1になったら恐怖だけど、どうせそんなに落ちない。
感情だけで売ったら休明けの機関投資家達の踏み台🪜にされる。
そんなのはごめんですね。

$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
Regarding the significant fluctuations in stock prices this time, a tone of 'let's make a calm judgment' stands out. It seems that the belief is 'stocks will eventually rise'. Is that really the case?
After the bubble burst, the Nikkei Stock Average dropped from the 0.03 million yen range to the 7,000 yen range over a decade. At that time, I bought stocks hoping to invest, but ended up losing money. Eventually, I realized that short selling was more profitable. From such a rock bottom situation, over another decade, the Nikkei Stock Average reached the 0.04 million yen range. I think it was largely thanks to monetary easing.
I'm not assuming that this stock market crash will be the same as after the bubble burst, but watching central banks so eager for interest rate hikes, it's hard to believe that 'stocks will eventually rise'.
It's not a matter of being against interest rate hikes at all. After outlining the path of the discussion, I would like an explanation of to what extent and over what period of time interest rates will be raised. Otherwise, I can't buy. To put it more bluntly, it seems like I would turn to selling as in the old days. It's absurd to base it on real interest rates. If you base it on real interest rates, you might as well raise interest rates as much as you want...