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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
$Spdr Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM.US)$
Given that the 10-year bond yield is technically at its upper limit and considering the valuation of stocks, I feel like funds are likely to shift to long-term bonds and gold. I recently bought GLDM. I'm also thinking about TMF soon.
When Mr. Trump was elected in November 2016, the interest rates soared, but peaked the following month in December and continued to decline until August 2017. However, from September 2017 onwards, with the incorporation of TCJA approval, interest rates began to reverse and rise. I vaguely predict that following a few months of declining interest rates from now, coupled with the permanentization of TCJA and tariff policies, interest rates may reverse and rise again... following a similar pattern as before.
NDX⇒Approaching monthly upper limit. Tough times for the tech sector? Maybe.
SPX is still some distance from the monthly upper limit. The low valuation sectors (such as financial stocks) benefiting from lower interest rates may lift the index a little more...
$Spdr Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM.US)$
Given that the 10-year bond yield is technically at its upper limit and considering the valuation of stocks, I feel like funds are likely to shift to long-term bonds and gold. I recently bought GLDM. I'm also thinking about TMF soon.
When Mr. Trump was elected in November 2016, the interest rates soared, but peaked the following month in December and continued to decline until August 2017. However, from September 2017 onwards, with the incorporation of TCJA approval, interest rates began to reverse and rise. I vaguely predict that following a few months of declining interest rates from now, coupled with the permanentization of TCJA and tariff policies, interest rates may reverse and rise again... following a similar pattern as before.
NDX⇒Approaching monthly upper limit. Tough times for the tech sector? Maybe.
SPX is still some distance from the monthly upper limit. The low valuation sectors (such as financial stocks) benefiting from lower interest rates may lift the index a little more...
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Both the PPI and unemployment insurance indicators have been released, indicating pressure from rising inflation and decent employment numbers. Despite expectations of an increase in interest rates, they have significantly dropped. ^_^ Perhaps the short sells of TLT from last week were strategically bought back amidst yesterday's high volume. Even though there is issuance of government bonds, there seems to be no impact on the expected rise in interest rates. Hmm, it's getting more and more confusing ^_^.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Now is the time to endure, I think I can win about 90%. Even if it's late, it will be clear by December.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ The post-presidential election situation looks good. It is expected that from around December 10th, TMF will rise from 58 to around 60, assuming that employment in the United States will deteriorate after next year.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ From now on, in order to anticipate a rate cut, the dollar may weaken and the yield on US bonds may start to rise. I believe the appropriate range for the US 10-year bond yield is between 3.7 and 4.3, and if it drops to 3.7, the tmf should go to around 63.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Since Mr. Trump became president, the TMF has reached its highest value in 2019 and 2020, and with the economy deteriorating under the Biden administration, it is likely that the FRB will be asked to cut interest rates.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ With the high expectations of a rate cut based on this employment statistics, funds are flowing into stocks, while bonds are likely to decline. Specific signs of an economic downturn have not yet emerged. There are news of small and medium-sized bank bankruptcies. If the next president turns out to be Trump, it seems that the bond market will face a tough situation for a while. Maybe considering partial sales. But compared to the time of the Lehman shock, one might expect a recession within two years after the yield curve inversion is resolved? It might be a long wait to keep hope alive. Even at the most, probably not several times the principal as during the time of the coronavirus, maybe around twice as much?
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Stocks are high in uncertainty, but bonds are considered certain due to the interest rate cut phase. They are rising properly today. I am expecting around a month and a half from now.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Last year, from November to 30 years, USA bonds decreased from 5.0 to 4.0, while tmf increased by 1.6 times, but is that time coming?
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ This may be the end of trying to make the employment statistics look good, so I entered the market at around $48.1 where interest rates rose in reaction. Will it be good luck or bad luck.
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