This article uses auto-translation in part.
The U.S. Department of LaborOctober 10th (Thursday) evening at 21:30 Japan timeにSeptember's US Consumer Price Index (CPI)will be announced.
Market consensus expectations are for core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and for headline CPI to increase by 0.1% month-on-month, also down from 0.2% in August. For the year-on-year comparison, the market expects headline CPI to rise by 2.3% (compared to the previous month's 2.5% increase).
Core CPI appears to be converging towards 3%.
While the disinflation process is definitely progressing in the market's view,The path to the inflation target of 2% is still unclear..
In order to maintain the inflation target annual rate of 2%, it is necessary for the monthly core inflation rate to stabilize at 0.2% and occasionally remain at 0.1%. However, the recent three consecutive months of fluctuation in monthly core CPI ranging from 0.2% to 0.1% was broken by the record of 0.3% in August, as shown in the chart. Therefore, the inflation rate in August may suggest the beginning of a new inflation or the possibility of inflation settling at a high level.
If there is a downward trend in 9...