Yuki Kishino
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Buying when it seems likely to rise is an option, but it's also important not to hold when it seems likely to fall.
The strategy is to only fight in markets where victory is certain.
I believe NVIDIA's momentum won't last long for a reason; there is no clear path to profitability for OpenAI's ChatGPT.
xAI's Grok3 is indeed wonderful, but it costs 6000 yen per month. It will be difficult for it to become as widespread as search engines.
What can be understood from here is that,Generative AI has not yet exceeded the realm of DX products for businesses.That's it.
Therefore, it should not become a monopoly and should not be able to dominate the market like GAFA.
Therefore, considering NVIDIA significantly dropped, a plan is to acquire SOFTBANK GROUP CO, a major shareholder of OpenAI and Arm.
Computing resources are equivalent between OpenAI and xAI. Thus, having support from SBG, which holds Arm, gives the former an advantage in logistics.
The strategy is to only fight in markets where victory is certain.
I believe NVIDIA's momentum won't last long for a reason; there is no clear path to profitability for OpenAI's ChatGPT.
xAI's Grok3 is indeed wonderful, but it costs 6000 yen per month. It will be difficult for it to become as widespread as search engines.
What can be understood from here is that,Generative AI has not yet exceeded the realm of DX products for businesses.That's it.
Therefore, it should not become a monopoly and should not be able to dominate the market like GAFA.
Therefore, considering NVIDIA significantly dropped, a plan is to acquire SOFTBANK GROUP CO, a major shareholder of OpenAI and Arm.
Computing resources are equivalent between OpenAI and xAI. Thus, having support from SBG, which holds Arm, gives the former an advantage in logistics.
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$VIX Index Futures(APR5) (VXmain.US)$
Do you need this index ETF?
Do you need this index ETF?
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This article uses auto-translation in part.
The U.S. Department of LaborOctober 10th (Thursday) evening at 21:30 Japan timeにSeptember's US Consumer Price Index (CPI)will be announced.
Market consensus expectations are for core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and for headline CPI to increase by 0.1% month-on-month, also down from 0.2% in August. For the year-on-year comparison, the market expects headline CPI to rise by 2.3% (compared to the previous month's 2.5% increase).
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Core CPI appears to be converging towards 3%.
While the disinflation process is definitely progressing in the market's view,The path to the inflation target of 2% is still unclear..
In order to maintain the inflation target annual rate of 2%, it is necessary for the monthly core inflation rate to stabilize at 0.2% and occasionally remain at 0.1%. However, the recent three consecutive months of fluctuation in monthly core CPI ranging from 0.2% to 0.1% was broken by the record of 0.3% in August, as shown in the chart. Therefore, the inflation rate in August may suggest the beginning of a new inflation or the possibility of inflation settling at a high level.
If there is a downward trend in 9...
The U.S. Department of LaborOctober 10th (Thursday) evening at 21:30 Japan timeにSeptember's US Consumer Price Index (CPI)will be announced.
Market consensus expectations are for core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and for headline CPI to increase by 0.1% month-on-month, also down from 0.2% in August. For the year-on-year comparison, the market expects headline CPI to rise by 2.3% (compared to the previous month's 2.5% increase).
While the disinflation process is definitely progressing in the market's view,The path to the inflation target of 2% is still unclear..
In order to maintain the inflation target annual rate of 2%, it is necessary for the monthly core inflation rate to stabilize at 0.2% and occasionally remain at 0.1%. However, the recent three consecutive months of fluctuation in monthly core CPI ranging from 0.2% to 0.1% was broken by the record of 0.3% in August, as shown in the chart. Therefore, the inflation rate in August may suggest the beginning of a new inflation or the possibility of inflation settling at a high level.
If there is a downward trend in 9...
Translated
![[CPI Preview] Will the Fed pause rate cuts? What is the outlook for the USA market?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241009/990e12446e405f527eacfcf8b7b8c66e.png/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
![[CPI Preview] Will the Fed pause rate cuts? What is the outlook for the USA market?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241009/32cbde2dfa4daff67ce7a81de5e06bb3.jpg/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
![[CPI Preview] Will the Fed pause rate cuts? What is the outlook for the USA market?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241009/b8c163227dcd27b8c10b4dc311de019f.jpg/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
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Yuki Kishino OP いーちゃん02 : Hello.
As a member of Generation Z, I read the Nikkei Shimbun regularly, so I have some thoughts on the matter.
First, it is said that Semiconductors are necessary to do something with AI, but the necessity of using AI currently is not that significant.
Thanks to the emergence of GPT about two years ago, it can be said that the market managed to maintain growth even under high interest rates, but the necessity of using that GPT has already been declared not overly significant.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun cited the lack of demand for AI as the reason for NVIDIA's Market Cap disappearing by several hundred billion dollars during the sharp drop in the Nikkei average following last year's Bank of Japan interest rate hike.
In order to justify GAFAM's Semiconductor investments, it was stated that the current AI demand of about 100 billion dollars should actually be around 700 billion dollars.
Additionally, if asked whether the generative AI, as you mentioned, is being used conveniently by everyone and making them happy, the concern that it may not be the case could be combined, and at the very least, it can be said that it does not spread to half of the general public, such as workers in civil engineering or the sex industry.
AI will also be used in finance and healthcare, but currently there has not yet been a breakthrough that leads to widespread, explosive adoption in these fields.
It is believed that there are no signs of computers being used for online trading in finance or drug development.
Additionally, there is complete agreement with the point that the low usage fees make it unprofitable for Business.
Although there have been many disruptive behaviors and serious misconducts, appreciation for Mr. Mask's high-tech innovations makes me a fan, thus I use Grok.
Grok has just raised the price of the latest model to 6,000 yen, nearly double, but I believe LLMs will generally be forced to increase prices further.
Expecting to run into the red, the investment should be paused by investors at some point.
Moreover, if prices are raised, it will become an advanced tool used only by a select few professionals, hence unlikely to be used in everyday life.
Even with a little thought, considering that Google Search and 'Insta,' which my peers use for research, are competitors, it appears lacking in power.
Therefore, in response to your question,
The act of developing and bringing generative AI to the world is not yet viable as a business.
If it were to become viable, it would not reach the current valuation and would be able to turn a profit, being used as a tool for work rather than a daily tool.
Aside from charging usage fees, it would also be expected to peek into consumers' minds for marketing purposes as a business. However, the model of placing advertisements does not seem feasible, as there is no element of keeping users glued to the screen for long periods.
For the semiconductor industry, it will ultimately account for less than 10% of the whole.
Self-driving cars, control of power plants and railroads, humanoid robots, and quantum computers are all small components among the potential breakthroughs in AI, and recalling events that occurred earlier, it may resemble the Internet bubble.
That is exactly as you say, and even if one asks generative AI, it only returns average results or marks on tests, so ultimately, in order to exceed average returns, it becomes necessary to consult humans.
Since last year, my investment strategy has been to hold all cash in yen positions based on this understanding.
If expectations are excessive, a multiplied rapid expansion will be adjusted all at once under the basic economic principle of business cycles and the liquidation of misinvestments.