$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
Have those who say TLT 120 or TMF 100 thought about how high the long-term bond interest rate needs to be to reach those levels?
At this moment, the 30-year long-term bond interest rate
4.05% corresponds to TLT 99
4% corresponds to TLT100
3.95% corresponds to TLT 101
You can roughly estimate the corresponding price based on this.
If the fed fund rate is reduced by 200 bps to 3.5 by the end of 2025, and then the normal curve long-term bond interest rate is inevitably greater than the short-term bond interest rate, I think it will be a great question whether TLT will reach 120.
Of course, whether the United States will decline is another matter.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Given the current situation, US30Y 4% is an important hurdle, corresponding to a current TLT price of about 100.

$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
USD/JPY 158.3
USDindex 106
Long the yen twice. $Proshares Ultra Yen (YCL.US)$
Short the yen twice. $ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS.US)$

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
TLT 95 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.2.
TLT 92 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.5.
TLT 88 currently corresponds to US30Y around 4.8.
Predicted year-end US10Y around 4.5.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
GDP slows down, inflation remains high
It seems unlikely to raise interest rates, but cutting rates needs to wait.
Still holding US10Y, add more when it reaches 5.

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$
Doing nothing with this stock is not like buying SVXY

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (TLTW.US)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
The most important topic now is whether there will be an interest rate cut this year. If there is no rate cut, will TLT actually incur losses?
To discuss this topic, we must compare with similar dividend yields. The liquidity of the 20-year dividend yield is low, so I will directly compare with the 30-year yield. Also, the composition of TLT will change over time, so we can only compare with the recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4.425
TLT 87.269 (plus historical dividend price of 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4.474
TLT 89.894 (including historical dividend price 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54.366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4.478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
When buying long-term government bonds, you need to consider whether you want to earn interest or price difference.
If you want to earn interest, then you should continue to stay put for now. If the expected inflation rate is 2%, and the dividend rate is greater than 2, your money will not depreciate.
If you want to earn price difference, it may not be achievable this year. In the current economic situation, with the inversion of short and long-term yields needing to reverse, if it is really confirmed that only two or three digits will be reduced by the end of the year, then the 2y-10y crossover point may be greater than 4.5. Now at 10-year 4.4%, how much further can TLT fall?
If you think the usa will not experience a soft landing, then now is the entry point. Think carefully, the yield curve has been inverted for over 20 months, with 46 points of inversion. Does the inverted yield curve no longer signal an economic recession?
In conclusion, buying long-term bonds for 20 years will definitely not result in losses, unless the usa perishes.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Everyone here is a fortune teller, all guessing what the bottom is.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
NVDA is a good company. But it is the third largest in the United States, and it is not possible to rise 10% every day.