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Recently, the semiconductor industry has been a tale of two extremes. Semiconductor companies that do not focus on AI feel like they are on the brink of bankruptcy, while those that do have valuations that are sky-high.
For me, like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ , this kind of speculative rise, I am not good at pricing it because it simply does not conform to the fundamentals. It's like a game of passing the buck, and anyone could end up holding the bag. To avoid buying at a high, you can only go into the pit and pick up the beans.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ My current stop-loss is set at 83.7, it's a soft stop-loss. Even if it drops below during the trading day, I will wait until near closing. If it doesn't bounce back, I will stop loss and retain some of the bottom position. My cost is around 84.5, so the risk is not high.
Another heavyweight stock in my portfolio, $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$ , stop loss temporarily set at 8.40-8.45, a hard stop loss. Won't sell unless it falls below, but if it does, I'll cut it all off because there are no dividends and I'm not considering long-term holding.
Once a plan is established, it must be strictly adhered to. Mistakes can happen, but losing money is not acceptable.
Lastly, just a side note:
Regarding Taiwan Semiconductor, the company's prospects, technology, moat, and profitability are all very good, but the management has major issues, leading to a current passive situation. In short, there is a lack of backbone and integrity.
For example, if you want to use technological advantages to gain strong pricing power, you have to allow customers to bid for limited production capacity...
For me, like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ , this kind of speculative rise, I am not good at pricing it because it simply does not conform to the fundamentals. It's like a game of passing the buck, and anyone could end up holding the bag. To avoid buying at a high, you can only go into the pit and pick up the beans.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ My current stop-loss is set at 83.7, it's a soft stop-loss. Even if it drops below during the trading day, I will wait until near closing. If it doesn't bounce back, I will stop loss and retain some of the bottom position. My cost is around 84.5, so the risk is not high.
Another heavyweight stock in my portfolio, $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$ , stop loss temporarily set at 8.40-8.45, a hard stop loss. Won't sell unless it falls below, but if it does, I'll cut it all off because there are no dividends and I'm not considering long-term holding.
Once a plan is established, it must be strictly adhered to. Mistakes can happen, but losing money is not acceptable.
Lastly, just a side note:
Regarding Taiwan Semiconductor, the company's prospects, technology, moat, and profitability are all very good, but the management has major issues, leading to a current passive situation. In short, there is a lack of backbone and integrity.
For example, if you want to use technological advantages to gain strong pricing power, you have to allow customers to bid for limited production capacity...
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1. Seeing is believing.
Staying in the market, the most important thing is to understand the market, which is driven by various factors including fundamentals, market dynamics, liquidity, expectations, etc. When you only focus on one-sided information and yet think you are right, you will make mistakes.
Respecting the market and respecting trends are the most important things at any time. Because most of the time our views and predictions are wrong, not because we are not smart enough, even the smartest people in the world cannot predict the future.
Fortunately, although prediction is difficult, validation is simple. Any prediction must be verified by the market for its correctness, and any strategy must be determined for its effectiveness in the market. This is true not only in the investment market, but also in life, work, and entrepreneurship.
Seeing is believing also includes that trend determination should be based on observation, avoiding the psychological anchoring effect.
2. Integration of knowledge and action
Knowledge is your cognition, action is the realization of cognition.
Not setting a plan is the first issue, not having a trading plan is the second issue. Not having a trading plan has two meanings, one is not trading despite having a plan, the other is trading without a plan, both will result in your trading being outside the plan.
Many people know the importance of planning, but still do not make plans, this is still a matter of perception, fundamentally believing that planning is not important.
Planning and trading are the most important things, so go ahead and make your trading plan now.
3. Bullish and bearish thinking coexist.
Do not stubbornly go long or short, you can trade long only, but your mindset must include both bullish and bearish thinking, simultaneously considering going long and going...
Staying in the market, the most important thing is to understand the market, which is driven by various factors including fundamentals, market dynamics, liquidity, expectations, etc. When you only focus on one-sided information and yet think you are right, you will make mistakes.
Respecting the market and respecting trends are the most important things at any time. Because most of the time our views and predictions are wrong, not because we are not smart enough, even the smartest people in the world cannot predict the future.
Fortunately, although prediction is difficult, validation is simple. Any prediction must be verified by the market for its correctness, and any strategy must be determined for its effectiveness in the market. This is true not only in the investment market, but also in life, work, and entrepreneurship.
Seeing is believing also includes that trend determination should be based on observation, avoiding the psychological anchoring effect.
2. Integration of knowledge and action
Knowledge is your cognition, action is the realization of cognition.
Not setting a plan is the first issue, not having a trading plan is the second issue. Not having a trading plan has two meanings, one is not trading despite having a plan, the other is trading without a plan, both will result in your trading being outside the plan.
Many people know the importance of planning, but still do not make plans, this is still a matter of perception, fundamentally believing that planning is not important.
Planning and trading are the most important things, so go ahead and make your trading plan now.
3. Bullish and bearish thinking coexist.
Do not stubbornly go long or short, you can trade long only, but your mindset must include both bullish and bearish thinking, simultaneously considering going long and going...
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In the stock market, profit is our perception. Stock trading is very simple and difficult. It is difficult to combine continuous learning with knowledge and action. The stock market is a “zero-sum game”. The success of one person's stock trading is based on the failure and pain of many shareholders. The so-called “one will do everything to the bone”, so when we succeed, we must remember to do something meaningful to society rose!
The stock market has a long way to go. Let's forge ahead together in the future. If you like it, remember to like it, like it, like it, collect, follow![]()
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$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
$FTSE Straits All-Share Index (.FSTAS.SG)$
$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
The stock market has a long way to go. Let's forge ahead together in the future. If you like it, remember to like it, like it, like it, collect, follow
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
$FTSE Straits All-Share Index (.FSTAS.SG)$
$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
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1: One ticket has been rising for two consecutive days, and the position must be reduced appropriately on the third day.
2: If your ticket continues to increase by more than 7 points on the same day, you can earn a few more points if you wait for a chance to increase and sell it again.
3: A ticket that only rises and then falls within 30 minutes of opening. It does not fall below the opening price. It can enter in the morning, and is very likely to rise in the afternoon. If it falls first and then rises,
The rebound did not break through the opening price, and we will definitely not buy it.
4: The high side plate rises again, seize the opportunity and throw quickly. The low side plate is a new low, seize the opportunity to suck low.
5: Trend is king. I'd rather die on the road to chase heights than die on the path to bottom.
6: If your ticket does not rise or fall for 3 days after buying it, and it reaches 5%, the erosion will stop immediately.
7: When you can't understand the trend, hold online shares for 5 days in the short term and online shares on the 20th in the medium term.
8: When a stock suddenly doubles the volume of the previous day, and the increase is more than 5%, you can follow up at the end of the session and sell higher the next day.
9: Don't copy the bottom, just follow the hot spots, dare to fill up the stud, quickly stop the profit and stop the erosion, and cut the mess quickly.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
...
2: If your ticket continues to increase by more than 7 points on the same day, you can earn a few more points if you wait for a chance to increase and sell it again.
3: A ticket that only rises and then falls within 30 minutes of opening. It does not fall below the opening price. It can enter in the morning, and is very likely to rise in the afternoon. If it falls first and then rises,
The rebound did not break through the opening price, and we will definitely not buy it.
4: The high side plate rises again, seize the opportunity and throw quickly. The low side plate is a new low, seize the opportunity to suck low.
5: Trend is king. I'd rather die on the road to chase heights than die on the path to bottom.
6: If your ticket does not rise or fall for 3 days after buying it, and it reaches 5%, the erosion will stop immediately.
7: When you can't understand the trend, hold online shares for 5 days in the short term and online shares on the 20th in the medium term.
8: When a stock suddenly doubles the volume of the previous day, and the increase is more than 5%, you can follow up at the end of the session and sell higher the next day.
9: Don't copy the bottom, just follow the hot spots, dare to fill up the stud, quickly stop the profit and stop the erosion, and cut the mess quickly.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
...
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$ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ As for whether this price reduction is bullish for Tesla itself, that depends on the data. But for the charging station industry, all I can think of is bullish. The more electric cars there are, the greater the demand and the larger the market share. Although there is competition within the industry, when the pie is bigger, everyone benefits. However, the stock price of chpt has plummeted, and I'm not sure what the market logic is. But if the daily chart reaches a low of 9, which is almost the previous low, and a bottoming out occurs, I believe it is an opportunity. Regardless of the economic situation, as long as the number of electric cars held increases, the demand for charging stations remains strong.
Of course, in the United States, the majority of electric cars are used for commuting and grocery shopping, and they are charged at home every night, so there is usually no need to go to a charging station. But as long as the number of electric cars increases, there will be more demand. In addition, with the favorable policies of President Biden, I don't think there will be any major problems in this industry.
Let's focus on the technical aspects and hope for a double bottom, a bottoming out, and then a rebound.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ As for whether this price reduction is bullish for Tesla itself, that depends on the data. But for the charging station industry, all I can think of is bullish. The more electric cars there are, the greater the demand and the larger the market share. Although there is competition within the industry, when the pie is bigger, everyone benefits. However, the stock price of chpt has plummeted, and I'm not sure what the market logic is. But if the daily chart reaches a low of 9, which is almost the previous low, and a bottoming out occurs, I believe it is an opportunity. Regardless of the economic situation, as long as the number of electric cars held increases, the demand for charging stations remains strong.
Of course, in the United States, the majority of electric cars are used for commuting and grocery shopping, and they are charged at home every night, so there is usually no need to go to a charging station. But as long as the number of electric cars increases, there will be more demand. In addition, with the favorable policies of President Biden, I don't think there will be any major problems in this industry.
Let's focus on the technical aspects and hope for a double bottom, a bottoming out, and then a rebound.
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Stock equity, I mean fun.
The rise and fall is large, the speed is fast, and the turnover rate is high. Agencies and retail investors are playing. Support levels and pressure levels are easy to find, so it's easy to judge the price and direction. Even if the judgment is wrong, just stop losing quickly.
Leaving aside making money, from an entertainment perspective alone, it's hard to find a stock as fun as Tesla. If you trade stocks only to make money, you can outperform the vast majority of people by investing in SPY or QQQ every week without having to fiddle around so much.
Tesla is also really interesting. Although there have been many downsides recently, such as secret photography, recall, and insiders binge selling of stocks, stock prices have not plummeted. When it was replaced by another company, I'm afraid the stock price would have fallen into a dog for a long time. Mainly the last round of the V-shaped reversal. Many people missed it, and now they are very afraid to miss it again. Furthermore, the cessation of interest rate hikes has been interpreted as favorable. In my opinion, it only favors the bond market; I have reservations about the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ If there is a pullback, it is considered that it has been blocked and retracted. As soon as the support level below is reached, I will continue to increase my position.
Let's also talk about the current economic environment. I don't dare to talk nonsense all over the country, yet I am surrounded by a double whammy of ice and fire.
A nearby supermarket chain is finally no longer hiring. It's not that the business is bad, but that they have recruited a group of grandparents to work as cashiers. The cashier window is finally working properly, but half of the cashiers are elderly. When I check out...
Stock equity, I mean fun.
The rise and fall is large, the speed is fast, and the turnover rate is high. Agencies and retail investors are playing. Support levels and pressure levels are easy to find, so it's easy to judge the price and direction. Even if the judgment is wrong, just stop losing quickly.
Leaving aside making money, from an entertainment perspective alone, it's hard to find a stock as fun as Tesla. If you trade stocks only to make money, you can outperform the vast majority of people by investing in SPY or QQQ every week without having to fiddle around so much.
Tesla is also really interesting. Although there have been many downsides recently, such as secret photography, recall, and insiders binge selling of stocks, stock prices have not plummeted. When it was replaced by another company, I'm afraid the stock price would have fallen into a dog for a long time. Mainly the last round of the V-shaped reversal. Many people missed it, and now they are very afraid to miss it again. Furthermore, the cessation of interest rate hikes has been interpreted as favorable. In my opinion, it only favors the bond market; I have reservations about the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ If there is a pullback, it is considered that it has been blocked and retracted. As soon as the support level below is reached, I will continue to increase my position.
Let's also talk about the current economic environment. I don't dare to talk nonsense all over the country, yet I am surrounded by a double whammy of ice and fire.
A nearby supermarket chain is finally no longer hiring. It's not that the business is bad, but that they have recruited a group of grandparents to work as cashiers. The cashier window is finally working properly, but half of the cashiers are elderly. When I check out...
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$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
$Cloudflare (NET.US)$
$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$
Something went wrong yesterday; technology stocks are about to fall. However, since the upward trend has not been disrupted, it has not been sold. I plan to take another look and confirm my judgment.
As a result, today's market just opened and fell apart![]()
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Let's see if they'll take a break in the afternoon and give them a chance to escape.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Continued decline is to be expected. Wait and drop one more time. The more you fall, the greater the chance.
$C3.ai (AI.US)$ About a month ago, I said this was a junk stock, and that the speculation bubble would break sooner or later. It always comes when it's supposed to come.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Fortunately, my pension was full of bonds, and I didn't run out of money. But bonds also have a potential risk: stagflation.
The intellectual disability of the 70s and 80s taught us that the employment slump did not necessarily reduce inflation. As long as inflation does not fall, no matter how bad the economy is, we must continue to raise interest rates. Stagflation often occurs before restructuring after an economy collapses. However, this is more of a political game, and we have no recourse; we can only pay attention to risk control.
I hope Lao Bideng doesn't take himself out of his way. Due to Trump's racial discrimination against Chinese people during COVID-19, a typical dog bit Lu Dongbin (he defeated Hillary back then, inseparable from the support of Chinese Americans in swing states...
$Cloudflare (NET.US)$
$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$
Something went wrong yesterday; technology stocks are about to fall. However, since the upward trend has not been disrupted, it has not been sold. I plan to take another look and confirm my judgment.
As a result, today's market just opened and fell apart
Let's see if they'll take a break in the afternoon and give them a chance to escape.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Continued decline is to be expected. Wait and drop one more time. The more you fall, the greater the chance.
$C3.ai (AI.US)$ About a month ago, I said this was a junk stock, and that the speculation bubble would break sooner or later. It always comes when it's supposed to come.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Fortunately, my pension was full of bonds, and I didn't run out of money. But bonds also have a potential risk: stagflation.
The intellectual disability of the 70s and 80s taught us that the employment slump did not necessarily reduce inflation. As long as inflation does not fall, no matter how bad the economy is, we must continue to raise interest rates. Stagflation often occurs before restructuring after an economy collapses. However, this is more of a political game, and we have no recourse; we can only pay attention to risk control.
I hope Lao Bideng doesn't take himself out of his way. Due to Trump's racial discrimination against Chinese people during COVID-19, a typical dog bit Lu Dongbin (he defeated Hillary back then, inseparable from the support of Chinese Americans in swing states...
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Last Friday, Tesla surged above 200. I think the benefits have been exhausted, and my 0.5% position has been cut in half, leaving only about 3/1000. There was a pullback to 200 yesterday. I think the bulls can resist filling positions to a total of 1%. I later discovered that I was thinking a lot![]()
I ran for 190 without resistance.
Today I opened a little bit higher. I originally wanted to stop and sell a little, but when I thought later, the total position was 1%, so what am I still tinkering with. Moreover, Tesla will definitely return to over 200 in the future. Today, I plan to increase my position slightly at 190. I think it will be 1.5%, but I will still treat it as a band.
This position is actually just for fun. I still think Tesla will return to at least 150, and possibly 125, or even 100. Falling below 100 may seem impossible; in fact, everything is possible. As long as local tycoons in the Middle East and Mao Xiong continue to cut crude oil production, I'm afraid old Biden and old Bao Ge won't sleep well at night. Inevitably, it's reminiscent of the oil crisis in the 1980s.![]()
However, Tesla is going to reach a reasonable price, that is, around 150, so I plan to buy some seriously. If it falls again, continue to increase positions. But even if I go back to 100, I wouldn't be too aggressive; I think adding 20% would be about the same. If it can actually continue to fall to 80 or even lower, then this is a really big chance.
The nature of Tesla is determined by its stock price. The 200 yuan Tesla is a technology stock, which is bullish to 5,000. Tesla at 100 yuan is an auto stock, bearish...
Last Friday, Tesla surged above 200. I think the benefits have been exhausted, and my 0.5% position has been cut in half, leaving only about 3/1000. There was a pullback to 200 yesterday. I think the bulls can resist filling positions to a total of 1%. I later discovered that I was thinking a lot
Today I opened a little bit higher. I originally wanted to stop and sell a little, but when I thought later, the total position was 1%, so what am I still tinkering with. Moreover, Tesla will definitely return to over 200 in the future. Today, I plan to increase my position slightly at 190. I think it will be 1.5%, but I will still treat it as a band.
This position is actually just for fun. I still think Tesla will return to at least 150, and possibly 125, or even 100. Falling below 100 may seem impossible; in fact, everything is possible. As long as local tycoons in the Middle East and Mao Xiong continue to cut crude oil production, I'm afraid old Biden and old Bao Ge won't sleep well at night. Inevitably, it's reminiscent of the oil crisis in the 1980s.
The nature of Tesla is determined by its stock price. The 200 yuan Tesla is a technology stock, which is bullish to 5,000. Tesla at 100 yuan is an auto stock, bearish...
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The USA is really in big trouble this time.
Looking through history, the USA actually only has two methods to solve a crisis: algo easing and finding someone to take the blame. Usually both are used together, swiftly getting out of the crisis, leaving a mess for others.
Take the recent events for example, in 2020, the USA flooded the market, the economy recovered, and global inflation took the blame. In 2008, the USA started flooding the market, China also flooded the market to save it, the USA got out of the crisis, while China's real estate market faced serious bubble risk, which still exists today.
This time, the USA cannot flood the market, they can only find someone to take the blame before crashing completely.
Russia is full of bones and thorns, definitely can't support the back. China is a panda, fat but very fierce, and now the United States can't handle it. That leaves Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The United States has been raising interest rates for so long, and with the Russia-Ukraine war, although the European Union is scarred and has lost a lot, it hasn't fallen. Japan can still hold on, although it's also struggling. The former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom made a shameful move, angering the Queen and causing a debt market crash, but the new Prime Minister, that person, seems to be capable and quickly stabilized the situation.
Currently, the real estate market in South Korea is on the verge of collapse. However, South Korea is too small, no matter how fat the caterpillar is, it can't support the elephant's back.![]()
The United States is in a difficult position now. If they don't find someone to support them, they will be in trouble.
In addition to the previous article mentioned $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
Looking through history, the USA actually only has two methods to solve a crisis: algo easing and finding someone to take the blame. Usually both are used together, swiftly getting out of the crisis, leaving a mess for others.
Take the recent events for example, in 2020, the USA flooded the market, the economy recovered, and global inflation took the blame. In 2008, the USA started flooding the market, China also flooded the market to save it, the USA got out of the crisis, while China's real estate market faced serious bubble risk, which still exists today.
This time, the USA cannot flood the market, they can only find someone to take the blame before crashing completely.
Russia is full of bones and thorns, definitely can't support the back. China is a panda, fat but very fierce, and now the United States can't handle it. That leaves Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The United States has been raising interest rates for so long, and with the Russia-Ukraine war, although the European Union is scarred and has lost a lot, it hasn't fallen. Japan can still hold on, although it's also struggling. The former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom made a shameful move, angering the Queen and causing a debt market crash, but the new Prime Minister, that person, seems to be capable and quickly stabilized the situation.
Currently, the real estate market in South Korea is on the verge of collapse. However, South Korea is too small, no matter how fat the caterpillar is, it can't support the elephant's back.
The United States is in a difficult position now. If they don't find someone to support them, they will be in trouble.
In addition to the previous article mentioned $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
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