Winners beat losers at the NYSE on Thursday by a rough 2 to 1 and at the Nasdaq by about 4 to 3. Advancing volume took a 39.7% share of composite NYSE-listed trade and a 46.3% share of composite Nasdaq-listed trade. However, aggregate trading volume receded from Wednesday's levels for names domiciled at both exchanges. As stocks generally moved sideways. You kids get where I am going with this?
With today being a triple witching event and also the final trading day ahead of...

Here is what hurt the market as soon as it was released. As far as year-end 2024 GDP is concerned, the FOMC's median expectation moved all the way up to growth of 2.5% from just 2% in September. In taking the committee's expectations for economic growth significantly higher, the committee also took their year-end median expectation for the unemployment rate down to 4.2% from 4.4% in September, while taking PCE inflation up to 2.4% from 2.3%, and Core PCE up to 2.8% ...

There really is not much to say here. This was a total cut and paste job. I guess the Fed has absolutely no use whatsoever for an economics writer. This crew changes a word or two here or there and calls it a day. I see only two minor changes in the statement. They are both in the third paragraph. After re-assuring readers that unemployment remains low and inflation somewhat stubborn, this statement announces that the 1/4 percentage point rate cut in exactly the same way as ...

Though it might not feel like it.
In a move that had been anticipated by all, the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) reduced the target range for the overnight Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% - 4.5%. This move took the Fed Funds Rate down 100 basis points from where it had peaked (5.25% to 5.5%) for the post-pandemic era and had remained through this past September when the committee kicked off an ill-advised shift towards easier policy with a 50-basis point ...

Over the past three months, the US Ten Year Note has gone from paying 3.65% to 4.42%. In a way that's healthy as many of the most important spreads within what we refer to as the slope of the US Treasury yield curve, have normalized. The issue is this. The Federal Reserve Bank has been dovish and has been working towards suppressing yields at the shorter end of said curve.
That means that bond traders are pricing in risk, debt and the fiscal largess of the US legislatu...

The final full five-day trading week of 2025 will be a busy one as far as macroeconomics and policy are concerned. The highest profile event of the week will be the FOMC Policy Statement on Wednesday afternoon. A 25-basis point rate cut is currently priced into markets. Until Wednesday, the Fed remains in their media blackout period. On Wednesday, along with the Statement, the FOMC will release their quarterly economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his all-impor...

All about inflation. The past week, from a macroeconomic perspective, as well as from a potential policy-focused market reaction, was all about inflation. There were not a lot of other domestic macroeconomic data-points out there nor were there a ton of earnings released. There were no Fed speakers out and about as that group is currently in the middle of their media blackout period ahead of this Wednesday's events.
That left among a number of lower profile economic events, No...

No. Though Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a 96% probability for a 25-basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC policy meeting and that is down from 98% the day prior, this cut is all but certain. That said, it stands to reason that the rate cuts that follow, as in the one currently priced in for March, could be delayed, or even not ever happen.
the above reference to "fiscal dominance." I think we all know that the Fed is even considering rate cuts wit...

On Thursday morning, after Wednesday had produced a November CPI report that confirmed at least a two-month reacceleration of consumer level prices (with a third month certainly on the way), the BLS released its data for November producer prices in the form of its PPI report. November PPI was indeed hot, hotter than November CPI had been.
On a month over month basis, headline November PPI printed at growth of 0.4%, up from 0.2% in October, while core PPI actually slow...