Alex Wong Cian Yih OP dualipo : A weaker USD could boost exports, which might help, but it could also push up import prices and inflation. It's a tricky balance.

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP : The market's median prediction for the CPI was between 2.9% and 3.1%. However, in my view, a CPI below 3% at this time is not ideal. This indicates a faster-than-expected decline in inflation, which aligns with recessionary trends. Given these conditions, I believe that long-term U.S. Treasuries are poised for a significant increase. Therefore, it may be a good time to consider investing in U.S. Treasuries.

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Spidermonkey : MACD + KDJ combined custom indicator

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Value Investing : Nope, but the CPI MUST in between 3 to 3.1%, if lower than 3% or higher than 3.2%, stock market will drop...

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Ultratech : Hey Ultratechman,
Thanks for your comment. Here’s my perspective:
Despite the skepticism from Claudia Sahm and Jerome Powell, the Sahm Rule has a nearly perfect track record in predicting recessions. Historically, when the Sahm Rule exceeds 0.5%, the economy is either already in a recession or enters one very soon. This consistency makes it a reliable indicator, and I choose to trust it based on its past performance.
During the COVID-19 recession, officials were reluctant to acknowledge the downturn, labeling it as a "technical recession." Later, data and charts categorized it as a genuine recession. This shows that politicians often play with terminology to avoid admitting to a recession, especially around critical times like elections.
Given the upcoming U.S. elections in November 2024, it’s plausible that officials might delay acknowledging a recession to avoid political fallout. Current economic data suggests we might already be in a recession, despite official statements to the contrary.
I believe in the Sahm Rule's data over public statements due to its historical reliability. Time will tell if this analysis is correct, but for now, I trust the indicator.
Thanks for the discussion!
Best,
Alex

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Ultratech : Hi Ultratechman,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I just wanted to give a friendly reminder to be cautious about being overly optimistic right now.
Recently, we've seen significant market volatility. On August 2, 2024, the Dow Jones dropped by 1,000 points, and Japan's Nikkei Index plummeted by 2,000 points, signaling a collective global market downturn. The triggers included disappointing ISM manufacturing PMI, poor U.S. job data, and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
Although the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible rate cut in September, this was initially seen as a positive signal by Wall Street. However, the sudden market crash shortly after suggests underlying issues. Historically, when the Sahm Rule exceeds 0.5%, as it did recently (now at 0.53%), it has consistently indicated a recession, regardless of official statements.
Moreover, notable investors like Warren Buffett have significantly reduced their positions in major stocks like Apple and Bank of America, signaling potential concerns about the market's direction. This aligns with historical patterns where market crashes often follow periods of excessive optimism and denial of underlying economic issues.
Given these indicators and the upcoming U.S. elections, it’s plausible that official narratives might downplay the severity of the situation. Therefore, I believe it’s prudent to stay cautious and prepared for potential downturns.
Best,
Alex

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Thomas_TBH : The one-time financial charge of SGD 79 million mentioned in Seatrium's recent earnings report was a settlement expense. This charge was a significant but non-recurring expense related to resolving a specific legal or financial issue. Although it impacted the short-term financials, it's not indicative of ongoing operational performance. The charge was necessary to settle past liabilities, allowing the company to move forward without the burden of unresolved disputes. This type of expense, while temporarily affecting profitability, is not expected to impact Seatrium's future growth and contract execution capabilities.

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP : There is no concrete evidence or allegations of Seatrium's stock being manipulated by large syndicates. The stock often experiences high volatility, attracting active day traders who buy low and sell high, adding to the price fluctuations. Additionally, Seatrium is under investigation by Singapore authorities for past corruption cases in Brazil, involving Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Offshore & Marine, predating the merger into Seatrium. These investigations are ongoing and may influence investor sentiment. Regulatory authorities are monitoring the situation to ensure market integrity. Long-term investors need strong mental resilience to navigate these fluctuations. Institutional investors are gradually accumulating shares, often buying at lower prices and shaking out weaker hands, with the stock expected to show significant growth by 2025-2026. If short-term volatility is a concern, this stock may not be suitable for all investors.