As we observe the rising unemployment rates in the U.S., there is growing concern that the Federal Reserve’s likely rate cuts in September may not be enough to prevent a hard landing—a full-blown recession. While we’ve been hopeful for a soft landing, I worry that our expectations might lead to greater disappointment if things don’t pan out as we wish. This situation forces us to rethink how we allocat...
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Just when we were all getting comfortable, basking in the glow of a market that seemed unstoppable, reality decided to drop in with a bucket of cold water—and it wasn’t just a splash, it was a full-on slap across the face. Yes, I’m talking about the recent bombshell: the revision of job numbers that tells us the labor market isn’t as strong as we all thought.
Riding the Highs Before the Slap
Let’s rewind a bit. The stock market has been...
Riding the Highs Before the Slap
Let’s rewind a bit. The stock market has been...
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So, the initial jobless claims came in at 227,000, well below the expected 235,000. On the surface, this seems to indicate that the U.S. economy is still holding up pretty well. But, I have to admit, the difference is quite significant, and it makes me a bit skeptical. After all, most analysts were predicting 235,000, so seeing it come in so much lower does raise an eyebrow. It's also worth noting that before the Sahm Rule was triggered, hardly an...
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Today’s focus is on the initial jobless claims data. The market expectation is 235,000 claims. This key economic indicator will help determine whether the economy is heading towards a soft landing or a hard landing.
Initial Jobless Claims Scenarios
1. Soft Landing:
- Condition: Claims are lower than 235,000.
- Expected Federal Reserve Action: Likely to lower interest rates by 0.25% (one basis point) in September.
- Market Reaction...
Initial Jobless Claims Scenarios
1. Soft Landing:
- Condition: Claims are lower than 235,000.
- Expected Federal Reserve Action: Likely to lower interest rates by 0.25% (one basis point) in September.
- Market Reaction...
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Yesterday, I commented on Moomoo about the potential market reaction to the CPI announcement. I mentioned that if the CPI were to fall below 3% or rise above 3.2%, the stock market would likely drop. Today, the CPI was announced at 2.9%, confirming my prediction. As a result, the market has been experiencing a decline, with the QQQ ETF down by approximately 0.5% and continuing to drop.
Recent Market Conditions
1. CPI Data: The CPI data ...
Recent Market Conditions
1. CPI Data: The CPI data ...
![CPI and Market Reaction: Strategic Moves and Profit Sharing](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240814/1723647146846-random151-102493980-android-compress.jpg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
![CPI and Market Reaction: Strategic Moves and Profit Sharing](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240814/1723647151864-random973-102493980-android-compress.jpg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
![CPI and Market Reaction: Strategic Moves and Profit Sharing](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240814/1723647153206-random1260-102493980-android-org.jpeg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
$MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU.US)$
Recently, the Sahm Rule has been triggered with a value of 0.53%, signaling the early stages of an economic recession. Historically, this rule has been a reliable early warning sign, indicating that the economy is beginning to contract. However, it’s crucial to understand that the stock market...
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
$MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU.US)$
Recently, the Sahm Rule has been triggered with a value of 0.53%, signaling the early stages of an economic recession. Historically, this rule has been a reliable early warning sign, indicating that the economy is beginning to contract. However, it’s crucial to understand that the stock market...
![Sahm Rule Triggered: Early Recession Signal and Market Reaction](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240810/1723272577890-random8243-102493980-android-compress.jpg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
![Sahm Rule Triggered: Early Recession Signal and Market Reaction](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240810/1723272579030-random3505-102493980-android-compress.jpg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
![Sahm Rule Triggered: Early Recession Signal and Market Reaction](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240810/1723272579309-random5705-102493980-android-compress.jpg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
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$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
Dear Followers,
I need to correct some information from my previous post and provide crucial updates based on new findings. Yesterday, I mentioned that the Sahm Rule exceeding 0.5% typically predicts a recession eight months in advance, suggesting a potential downturn by March-April 2025. However, upon further analysis of the historical data and the newly reviewed ...
Dear Followers,
I need to correct some information from my previous post and provide crucial updates based on new findings. Yesterday, I mentioned that the Sahm Rule exceeding 0.5% typically predicts a recession eight months in advance, suggesting a potential downturn by March-April 2025. However, upon further analysis of the historical data and the newly reviewed ...
![Important Update: Sahm Rule Indicates the U.S. Economy is Already in Recession](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/102493980/20240803/1722681118559-random4858-102493980-android-org.jpeg/thumb?area=101&is_public=true)
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$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
As of July 2024, the Sahm Rule indicator has surpassed the critical threshold of 0.5%, now standing at 0.53%. This is a significant signal as the Sahm Rule is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting economic recessions. Historically, every time the Sahm Rule has exceeded 0.5%, a recession has followed, making it an almost foolproof indicator with nearly 100% accuracy. This level of reli...
As of July 2024, the Sahm Rule indicator has surpassed the critical threshold of 0.5%, now standing at 0.53%. This is a significant signal as the Sahm Rule is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting economic recessions. Historically, every time the Sahm Rule has exceeded 0.5%, a recession has followed, making it an almost foolproof indicator with nearly 100% accuracy. This level of reli...
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As of July 2024, the Sahm Rule indicator has surpassed the critical threshold of 0.5%, now standing at 0.53%. This development is significant as the Sahm Rule is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting economic recessions. Historically, every time the Sahm Rule has exceeded 0.5%, a recession has followed, making it a nearly foolproof indicator.
Historical Accuracy and Key Data
The Sahm Rule has successfully predicted all U.S. rec...
Historical Accuracy and Key Data
The Sahm Rule has successfully predicted all U.S. rec...
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$Seatrium Ltd (5E2.SG)$
Seatrium's stock experienced a notable drop today, which can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the recent earnings report included a one-time charge of SGD 79 million for a settlement. This charge, although temporary, caused alarm among investors, leading to panic selling. This reaction is common among retail investors, who often overreact to financial news, thereby exacerbating the stock's decline beyond what is justified by ...
Seatrium's stock experienced a notable drop today, which can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the recent earnings report included a one-time charge of SGD 79 million for a settlement. This charge, although temporary, caused alarm among investors, leading to panic selling. This reaction is common among retail investors, who often overreact to financial news, thereby exacerbating the stock's decline beyond what is justified by ...
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