Summary and Brief Comment
- Prior to the major SQ, the falling trend of the stock price index changed on September 11, particularly due to the strength of US stocks. The market also reacted bullish to the bullish situation of NVIDIA's products.
- The probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FRB) changed based on an article in the Wall Street Journal. Last week's employment statistics, which were thought to be certain at 0.25%, now have a 45% probability of a 0.50% rate cut and a 55% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, creating a balance.
- The USD/JPY exchange rate has turned negative for the year, offsetting the yen depreciation seen earlier this year.
Gold continued to rise in the latter half of the week. Gold futures surpassed $2600.
Platinum surged in parallel with gold and palladium.
Despite the concerns about the situation in the Middle East, the significant drop in crude oil futures in the first half of the week suggests that the market continues to factor in a US economic slowdown.
The presidential debate took place, and it is said that Ms. Harris had the upper hand as a result.
- The announcement of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was made on September 12th, and nine politicians declared their candidacy.
- There was an event by APPLE, and iPhone 16...

Summary and Brief Comment
At the end of August, there was a slight increase in stock prices, and the stock market after Labor Day started with a sense of relief, but on September 4th, there was a significant decrease, becoming a market driven by economic indicators of concern rather than a recession in the US economy.
The employment statistics were expected to be stronger than the previous time, but the results turned out to be weaker than the consensus. The immediate market reaction was mixed. The interest rate futures indicate that a 0.25% rate cut is dominant for the next FOMC, rather than a 0.5% cut.
Stock prices fell sharply in the US market after the employment statistics. Based on the VIX index, it has not yet turned into a panic market, but it can be described as very weak.
In the investment and trading community of X, there has been talk about whether this TOTO MEGA BIG is expected to have a significantly positive outcome, leading to the appearance of individuals investing a large sum in lottery tickets.
The LDP leadership election has become a focal point for financial income taxation, with Mr. Ishiba's statement on strengthening taxation causing a big stir.
- President Biden has started preparations to prevent the acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, which has caused concern among Japanese and American officials and politicians...

Summary/one-word comment
This week was a week full of events.
I think Chairman Powell's remarks have a big impact on investment.
It shows that the Federal Reserve will clearly change its monetary policy.
・In the Jackson Hole speech, Chairman Powell clarified the monetary policy shift to interest rate cuts.
・Information about running for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and thoughts is now flying around.
・This is a topic of downward revisions to employment statistics starting with the media ZeroEdge, but the revised value was a downward revision of 0.81 million8,000. This is a decrease of 0.06 million8,000 people per month. The market was not a big surprise, but the announcement was delayed from the scheduled time, and incorrect numbers were posted on SNS during that time, causing some confusion.
・Since the Harris candidate's policy is a tax on unrealized gains from financial income targeting the wealthy, it became clear that if she becomes president, it is a strong risk to the stock market.
・It was reported that difficulties will arise due to regulations based on the Foreign Exchange Act on the topic of the acquisition proposal of 7&i Holdings.
・Types of Mpox infections that tend to become severe are in Asia...

Summary/one-word comment
・It can also be seen from IMM's speculator position that the yen overpurchase position has decreased drastically.
・Tensions between Iran and Israel are rising in connection with the assassination of Hamas supreme leader Haniya, and the market is reacting mainly to crude oil.
・VIX has fallen below 20, and the movement to search for the second bottom has also decreased.
・Prime Minister Kishida announced that he will not participate in the next presidential election. Politicians who are candidates have opinions about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and this political material cannot be ignored.
・After the Japanese stock crash, a sense of weakness was created, and when I look at stock prices thereafter, I feel as if the 8/5 shock did not drag on.
・Retail sales and number of new unemployment insurance claims were strong results. Rather than excessive concerns about the US recession, it seems that attention is being drawn to how much excessive interest rate cuts will not be made even though there will be a recession.
・The price of gold in dollar-denominated spots reached an all-time high and broke through 2,500 dollars.
5-day performance
・Looking back, the Nikkei Average has risen by over 9%, and the daily chart forms a V shape.
Brand Name: Nikkei 225 In...

Summary and Comments
A sharp decline occurred, mainly in Japanese stocks.The decline in the Nikkei Average was historic.It was unprecedented.
The strong results for the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index counteracted the material of the U.S. economic downturn.
It became a factor that calmed down the panic selling.
This plunge was triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, but multiple factors are overlapping.
- Market is relieved by the remarks of the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan and the stock market is rising.
The shock was caused by the unwinding of yen carry positions.That's what the market says.
- An earthquake with a weak intensity of 6 occurred in Miyazaki, and the Japan Meteorological Agency announced the 'Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information',
and there are concerns about its impact on the market.
The Nankai Trough earthquake cannot be ignored as a significant risk.This is the factor.
- Looking at the weekly basis, although there was a crash on Monday, the price has recovered.
Except for Ethereum,The volatility has stayed within a reasonable range..
- It has been a challenge for investors who started the new NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) this year.
All investors and traders should reconsider their risk management.
Notable price movements and special notes
-August 5, 2024 (Monday)
Nikkei 225 Index: 31,458.42 Previous Day: -4,451.28 ...

I usually post news summaries, and I didn't express my personal opinions very much.
I would like to briefly post my thoughts on the crash.
I myself am a part-time worker, and I wasn't able to check the Zaraba crash while I was at work.
Fortunately, I didn't have a stock position, so I was able to stay calm.
What I think is different from previous crashes
Rather than the crash itself being the kind of thing that causes major damage to the real economy,
Rather, it seems that central bank policies have not changed and are having a big impact.
The crash is certainly a revelation, but not many people are enjoying it.
If you see big profits from short-term trading and get into the iron field with “myself too,” it is inevitable that you will get burned.
The question of whether index investors can continue investing even if this happens is
It's a very important litmus test.
(Even if Orkan and S&P 500 haven't fallen as much as Japanese stocks, their assets should have decreased due to the appreciation of the yen)
In particular, the state of aiming for an annual interest rate of 8% with 100% portfolio stocks is extremely unstable,
You may be tempted to learn it as an experience rather than logic.
I was investing, being knocked in over and over, then I forgot...