Today 5/16 is also close to heaven, drawing an upper beard similar to yesterday, making it the worst chart shape.
Under these circumstances, it's almost impossible to guess whether it will go up or down tomorrow. In other words, it is impossible to win with the actions of many individual investors who predict stock prices and swing trade only with spot stocks on a daily basis...
■Predict stock prices ⇒ Move yourself after unexpected stock prices move
■Swing Trade ⇒ Do you want to use date trading, lengthen the time frame, or make time your ally
■Spot stocks only ⇒ Do you use bond sales with credit sales together, or do you use futures together, remember the options
Unless you change your investment/trading style like this, you'll be fighting a bad fight first.
And this time
■Predict stock prices ⇒ Move yourself after unexpected stock prices move
I would like to write about yesterday's way of thinking about this.
Let's take a look at the situation with Nikkei Futures.
First, the long term. Since it's Sell, the long-term downtrend continues.
And medium term.
Blue as of yesterday. In other words, it is in a negative trend and there is a downtrend in the medium term.
The situation is currently returning in the short term, but it's still above the mid-term basis...

Well, now on to the investment world”cognitive biasI'm going to write a story about”.
Why aren't we getting results from our investments?
Why can't humans beat AI?
Why do we make the same mistakes every time?
I was writing something and it made me sad (laughs)
However, if you have some investment experience, you are probably worried and suffering in the same way.Even people who succeed in investing always fail at first, and the results after overcoming itI wonder what it is.
The investment is not AI or computers, after allLeft and right due to human greedIt was done, and thatCreated by the human brainI will do it. So, brain habits,cognitive biasIf you know about it, I think you can get closer to success by investing even a little bit.
Previously, I wrote that “successful methods and tactics” of famous investors cannot be easily reproduced or imitated, but avoiding “methods where our ancestors failed” is reproducible.If “failure due to cognitive bias” created by the human brain can be avoided, the closer we are to a successful investment。
So, I'd like to break it down into a few steps from here on out.
1: Anchoring effect
What is the easiest to understand anchoring effect in investment
...

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Today I would like to write the “easiest way to use” the Ichimoku equilibrium table.
If you want to master the Ichimoku equilibrium table, I think it's a pretty difficult chart tactic that includes cycle theory and price range theory.
If you are fascinated by the Ichimoku Equilibrium Chart, I think it's worth studying.
But if you don't understand that much and want to use it as a quick reference...
・Golden Cross and Dead Cross at the conversion line and reference line
・The intersection of a late line and a candlestick
・Cash register support at the upper and lower cloud limits
There are such things. Reference lines, conversion lines, and cloud upper and lower limits (leading span) work quite a bit as cash registers, so it's also useful for imagining them as points where they stop falling or stop rising.
Furthermore, the easiest way to determine is the “candlestick” and “turning line” golden cross (GC) and dead cross (DC).
I only use the Ichimoku balance table with this and tactics using lag lines. I don't have any better knowledge than that.
Buy when the candlestick has GC the turning line
Sell when the candlestick turns DC
After taking a position, the conversion line becomes a cashier support, and if it crosses, it's fine
It's pretty simple, right?
Hosoda sensei posted this on X (Twitter)...

Today I'm going to talk about the US Fear Index.
The rise in VIX is attracting attention, but what should be paid more attention to than that is the bond market.
MOVE is the bond fear index = volatility, and it was around 100 in normal times for a few years. The perception is that if it exceeds 120, it is over 25 in VIX. This is just me guessing from past data without permission, so it's not accurate at all (laughs)
In many cases, the stock market is optimistic and the market price is misread, but the bond market is cautious and generally more accurate than the stock market.
The market size is also completely different, isn't it?
So even if VIX goes up, you don't have to worry too much while MOVE is under 100 or around 100.
However, when MOVE exceeds 120, it is a yellow light.
MOVE reached 120 yesterday. After that, it dropped slightly to 119.6.
When this happens, it means that the bond market has also entered an alert mode, so the VIX rise from here on will lead to a major decline in stock prices.
Japanese stocks have also risen, and the short and CALL sales situation continues.
The atmosphere is half-hearted, and you can do it right away even if you go in for a long time.
The movement from the morning of the 17th today is exactly this kind of market movement...

Do you trade or invest in Bitcoin (hereinafter BTC)?
I have been making full-scale spot purchases and savings since 2021. The goal is to take 1 BTC and put it in a hard wallet and forget it! But since it has skyrocketed, reaching the target of 1 BTC is far away lol
Well, is it expensive now or is it still going up?
It bothers me, but I think there are many people who think that virtual currency is ridiculous... it's definitely going to crash... that kind of thing is a magical coin... This is especially the trend as people get older. That's because it's a world you don't know, a world you don't understand.
In my grandfather's generation, investments in individual stocks in Japan were almost all about quarterly reports, paper chart books, and newspapers.
About 30% of parents can use PCs, and buying stocks at face-to-face securities companies is the mainstream.
However, in my generation, the world was connected by making full use of PCs and smartphones, and we are now in an age where Japanese people buy US and world stocks with ETFs instead of Japanese stocks.
And in my child's generation, it's the generation of AI natives, let alone smartphone natives.
AI+blockchain (distributed processing) is...

Today, let's write about the essence that would be rough on X or YouTube.
The title is “Chart Explanation Full of Mistakes”!
It's coming down right now, but in general chart explanations and textbook-like stories, it's “when you get an autograph.” This is correct from a medium- to long-term perspective, but it doesn't work in the short or short term.
Each chart has a time axis they are good at, and the criteria for judgment also differ on each time axis.
And we have to change the way we capture the trade signs that come out of that chart depending on the time axis.
eg
・Golden cross (GC) /dead cross (DC) with moving average and MACD systems
・When the Overcast or Key Points sign lights up
・If you break a cash register or trend line or get pushed back
etc. will be explained as trade signs, right?
All of these are based on a “trend following” type of thinking that works in the medium term and above as a time axis.
Even in the medium term, the axis of trade and investment changes depending on the period.
I'm focusing on options, so I base it on a monthly basis. The medium term is 1 month, the short term is around 1 week, the long term is 3 months to 1 year, and the short term is 2-3 days...