Kaid Osmanagic
commented on
$Intel (INTC.US)$ Intel didn't release any news in the earnings call that was new or unexpected, anyone with eyes knows that the short term will be bumpy. That's why I sold my shares before earnings, I knew I'd be able to jump back in the $40s when the lemmings sell their shares per usual.
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Kaid Osmanagic
commented on
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ Palantir's model is simply not that profitable. This is not a traditional SaaS company, since Palantir relies on deploying teams of specialized workers for each particular project. As I've mentioned before, Palantir works in a way like a consulting company, which makes its costs much higher. The high remuneration of their employees, which are essential to the company, is behind the fact that stock-based compensation is so high, and this isn't going to change any time soon.
What's most worrisome though, is that profitability has not improved in the latest quarters. Looking at Palantir's results, it's easy to get swept up by the large increase in profitability from 2020 to 2021. However, if we compare Q1 to Q2, we see a completely different story.
As we can see, Palantir achieved a 34% operating margin in Q1, but only a 30% operating margin in Q2. And in fact, forward guidance from the Q2 slides suggests an operating margin of 22% in Q3.
I believe the company may be deliberately low-balling this figure to deliver a "surprise", much like they have done with revenue. Ultimately, this begs the question; has Palantir's profitability already peaked? And if so, what's the appeal?
What's most worrisome though, is that profitability has not improved in the latest quarters. Looking at Palantir's results, it's easy to get swept up by the large increase in profitability from 2020 to 2021. However, if we compare Q1 to Q2, we see a completely different story.
As we can see, Palantir achieved a 34% operating margin in Q1, but only a 30% operating margin in Q2. And in fact, forward guidance from the Q2 slides suggests an operating margin of 22% in Q3.
I believe the company may be deliberately low-balling this figure to deliver a "surprise", much like they have done with revenue. Ultimately, this begs the question; has Palantir's profitability already peaked? And if so, what's the appeal?
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Kaid Osmanagic
commented on
$Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC.US)$ is still climbing after nearly quintupling as it became the home of Donald Trump's proposed media empire.
DWAC is up 90% premarket, nearing $90 after starting the week below $10 per share.
The SPAC announced a deal yesterday to acquire Trump Media & Technology Group that will include the former president's social media platform TRUTH Social.
While details are very scarce, the company says it plans to take on Big Tech not just in social media, but also streaming.
The stock rise is coming purely on speculation of what Trump Media could be as there's little known about the make-up of the company, let alone numbers.
DWAC disclosed in a filing that it has no full-time employees and doesn't plan to add any until closing a de-SPAC deal.
CEO Patrick Orlando and CFO Luiz Orleans-Braganza aren't required to work full-time for the business prior to then.
And Vice reports that TRUTH Social is using open source platform Mastadon's code base without credit.
But based on the $1.7B enterprise value that DWAC attributes to TMTG, the business will be worth around $15B at the start of trading.
That lends some credence to the argument that DWAC will become a meme stock driven by Trump supporteres.
It's not at the lofty levels of $GameStop (GME.US)$ and $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ yet, but that's also without material short interest or an option chain.
After six mentions on WallStreetBets on Monday, the SPAC was mentioned 317 times yesterday and has been mentioned 99 times today, according to data from Quiver Quantitative.
That was more than GameStop yesterday, but not Tesla.
DWAC is up 90% premarket, nearing $90 after starting the week below $10 per share.
The SPAC announced a deal yesterday to acquire Trump Media & Technology Group that will include the former president's social media platform TRUTH Social.
While details are very scarce, the company says it plans to take on Big Tech not just in social media, but also streaming.
The stock rise is coming purely on speculation of what Trump Media could be as there's little known about the make-up of the company, let alone numbers.
DWAC disclosed in a filing that it has no full-time employees and doesn't plan to add any until closing a de-SPAC deal.
CEO Patrick Orlando and CFO Luiz Orleans-Braganza aren't required to work full-time for the business prior to then.
And Vice reports that TRUTH Social is using open source platform Mastadon's code base without credit.
But based on the $1.7B enterprise value that DWAC attributes to TMTG, the business will be worth around $15B at the start of trading.
That lends some credence to the argument that DWAC will become a meme stock driven by Trump supporteres.
It's not at the lofty levels of $GameStop (GME.US)$ and $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ yet, but that's also without material short interest or an option chain.
After six mentions on WallStreetBets on Monday, the SPAC was mentioned 317 times yesterday and has been mentioned 99 times today, according to data from Quiver Quantitative.
That was more than GameStop yesterday, but not Tesla.
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Kaid Osmanagic
reacted to and commented on
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ What's with all the Tesla haters, this morning I drove on the LIE to NYC counted 52 Tesla on the highway, could not believe thier so many until I counted, which begged the question why the hell am I still driving an ICE.
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Kaid Osmanagic
commented on
$Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$
Which sectors have gained the most in the recent bull market?
Just as with the bull market of the 1990s technology stocks have led the gains. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, known as the FAANGs, have been popular with investors. As the chart below illustrates, $1,000 invested in the technology sector in March 2009 would now be worth $6,326, not adjusted for inflation.
The worst performing sector was the basic resources, which includes the likes of oil producers and miners. The sector was deserted by the majority of investors during the height of the recession as demand for raw materials slumped along with global growth. An investment of $1,000 in March 2009 would now be worth $1,907.
Which sectors have gained the most in the recent bull market?
Just as with the bull market of the 1990s technology stocks have led the gains. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, known as the FAANGs, have been popular with investors. As the chart below illustrates, $1,000 invested in the technology sector in March 2009 would now be worth $6,326, not adjusted for inflation.
The worst performing sector was the basic resources, which includes the likes of oil producers and miners. The sector was deserted by the majority of investors during the height of the recession as demand for raw materials slumped along with global growth. An investment of $1,000 in March 2009 would now be worth $1,907.
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Columns Some Buyback Cons
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ For years, it was thought that stock buybacks were an entirely positive thing for shareholders. However, there are some downsides to buybacks as well. One of the most important metrics for judging a company's financial position is its EPS. EPS divides a company's total earnings by the number of outstanding shares; a higher number indicates a stronger financial position.
By repurchasing its stock, a company decreases the number of outstanding shares. A stock buyback thus enables a company to increase this metric without actually increasing its earnings or doing anything to support the idea that it is becoming financially stronger.
As an illustration, consider a company with yearly earnings of $10 million and 500,000 outstanding shares. This company's EPS, then, is $20. If it repurchases 100,000 of its outstanding shares, its EPS immediately increases to $25, even though its earnings have not budged. Investors who use EPS to gauge financial position may view this company as stronger than a similar firm with an EPS of $20 when in reality the use of the buyback tactic accounts for the $5 difference.
The key reasons buybacks are controversial:
1. The impact on earnings per share can give an artificial lift to the stock and mask financial problems that would be revealed by a closer look at the company’s ratios.
2. Companies will use buybacks as a way to allow executives to take advantage of stock option programs while not diluting EPS.
3. Buybacks can create a short-term bump in the stock price that some say allows insiders to profit while suckering other investors. This price increase may look good at first, but the positive effect is usually ephemeral, with equilibrium regaining when the market realizes that the company has done nothing to increase its actual value. Those who buy in after the bump can then lose money.
By repurchasing its stock, a company decreases the number of outstanding shares. A stock buyback thus enables a company to increase this metric without actually increasing its earnings or doing anything to support the idea that it is becoming financially stronger.
As an illustration, consider a company with yearly earnings of $10 million and 500,000 outstanding shares. This company's EPS, then, is $20. If it repurchases 100,000 of its outstanding shares, its EPS immediately increases to $25, even though its earnings have not budged. Investors who use EPS to gauge financial position may view this company as stronger than a similar firm with an EPS of $20 when in reality the use of the buyback tactic accounts for the $5 difference.
The key reasons buybacks are controversial:
1. The impact on earnings per share can give an artificial lift to the stock and mask financial problems that would be revealed by a closer look at the company’s ratios.
2. Companies will use buybacks as a way to allow executives to take advantage of stock option programs while not diluting EPS.
3. Buybacks can create a short-term bump in the stock price that some say allows insiders to profit while suckering other investors. This price increase may look good at first, but the positive effect is usually ephemeral, with equilibrium regaining when the market realizes that the company has done nothing to increase its actual value. Those who buy in after the bump can then lose money.
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$Nike (NKE.US)$ I like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
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$Blink Charging (BLNK.US)$ i have a position on this stock from $29.19 and have stops below 24 just to give it some wiggle room since it has tagged the 61.8 before. i have targets at 79 but since it has never been that high before i will probably look to lock some profit in at previous highs and ride the rest to target if it happens. Set up is a traditional hwb all time low to all time high. 50% touched, broke above 38.2 and retest of 50% was our entry. Just discovered this set up last week and got a good price for the trade. Also forming a wedge down here so hopefully we can get a break out. With my position at 29.19 and stops $5 below, price target $35 higher (previous highs) it gives us a good risk to reward of about a 1:7. I like to keep things simple, with stocks i prefer larger time frames.
$Aterian (ATER.US)$ YOU GUYS CAN SEE HOW HARD THEY WERE FIGHTING AND SPREADING FUD. SO STOP WITH THESE LITTLE ASS FUCKING PRICE TARGETS THIS IS ACTUALLY A HUGE ONCE IN A LIFETIME RIDE PROBABLY A BIGGER SQUEEZE THAN GME DUE TO HOW LOW THE FLOAT IS.
Anyone that sells at anything below $100 deserves to miss out on what coming! SO PLEASE LET'S NOT RUIN IT. WE CONTROL THE FLOAT! This Rocket is about to fly to the moon the company has assets worth more than its market cap alone. Also, its earnings are out of this world so with no squeeze this is a $100 stock with a gamma squeeze this should be where GME is at or even more because of how low the float is. Look for $300 to $500! In addition, over $1 billion dollars of options expire in the money that will trigger them to buy shares to hedge for what's coming. This is a solid company with solid fundamentals.
Anyone that sells at anything below $100 deserves to miss out on what coming! SO PLEASE LET'S NOT RUIN IT. WE CONTROL THE FLOAT! This Rocket is about to fly to the moon the company has assets worth more than its market cap alone. Also, its earnings are out of this world so with no squeeze this is a $100 stock with a gamma squeeze this should be where GME is at or even more because of how low the float is. Look for $300 to $500! In addition, over $1 billion dollars of options expire in the money that will trigger them to buy shares to hedge for what's coming. This is a solid company with solid fundamentals.
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$SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT.US)$ Sold 80 PUTS @ 0.47 Strike 85
% to Strike is 10.4% from entry
ATR percentile is low
Max Gain: est $3760
Total BP Block: 75K
% to Strike is 10.4% from entry
ATR percentile is low
Max Gain: est $3760
Total BP Block: 75K
Kaid Osmanagic : Good for you, Aimee. Frankly, I wish you would have posted this sooner. LOL it would have saved me a boatload --- now I have to switch to Geico to save 15% to make up for the Intel beating I've been taking.