Review of the first half of the year and future predictions
I'm frankly happy that we were able to leave a record above the market average in a very strong market. Since stocks have been replaced at a frequency of about once every 2 months from timely settlement and guidance, profit and loss were 85% positive.
First, as a result of investing in a wide range of industries in January, taking advantage of rising exchange rates between Japan and the US, an increase of almost the same level as the market was obtained. One of the major turning points was the brand swap that was carried out little by little in January, and we narrowed it down to 8 brands in the 3 industries of technology, insurance, and automobiles. As a result, we were able to greatly outperform the market from February to March. Meanwhile, there was a big decline in April, but even so, I think the reason they did not underperform above the market average is because they were narrowed down to stocks with good corporate performance. Furthermore, it was May-June that my results improved significantly. Since NVDA's very strong financial results and prospects were confirmed in May, risk was overwhelmingly low compared to other industries, and returns were increased, so the investment ratio was greatly increased. As a result, we were able to further increase our profit margin in the first half of the year.
As a forecast for the future, I believe that the current state of affairs and the financial environment will continue to appreciate the dollar and the rise in US interest rates for 1 to 2 months. business...

Looking back on the first half of the year and future predictions ②
There was a loss of 25k dollars compared to profit of 116k dollars, which was a positive profit and loss of 90k dollars in the first half of the year. During this time, gains from stock price increases were about 70%, and yen base assets increased by about 15% from 140 yen/dollar to 160 yen/dollar as the depreciation of the yen depreciation and appreciation of the dollar progressed.
As for the financial environment at the beginning of the year, it was thought that the number of cuts in US interest rates was more factored in than the market as of 6/30, but in reality, interest rate cuts by the Fed were not carried out for half a year due to high inflation. Meanwhile, interest rates in Japan have not changed on a scale that has an impact on the market, and as a result, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar by 15% did not have structural changes, so I think it is an appropriate level.
As for changes in stock prices, the S&P 500 was 15% higher and the Nikkei average was 18% higher, and it was also strong as a market average, but even when looking at the rising and falling stock lines, I think there was a huge difference in how good or bad things were between industries and companies. Among the 62 stocks I own, semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVDA, performed extremely well, while BRK.B lost money. Nonetheless, by being able to determine profits and cut losses in a timely manner, the advantage of investing in individual stocks is that profits and losses can be controlled easily...

Speaking from the results, it is significant that we were able to maximize 5/28 profits by not omitting SMCI on 5/15 and NVDA by securing MSCI after the NVDA settlement and buying more NVDA. Looking back on May, I can understand the details of the business, and investing in something with good financial results produces returns above the market average, so I would like to scrutinize the numbers and momentum of the market and companies in June, hold excellent companies at an appropriate ratio, and rearrange portfolios in a timely manner.