wangcaifan
commented on
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$
As the title.
With various uncertainties in the market rising, it seems that funds have returned to the most certain sector in terms of profitability: ai chips. I have increased my position in NVDA, which is currently my largest holding. In addition, I also hold AMD and a small amount of TSM.
$The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ It is my second largest holding, acting as a defense.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Unable to break through for a long time, so I reduced my positions, it is currently my third largest holding. Let's see if the robotaxi can drive the stock price through the resistance. It's not too late to buy after the breakthrough.
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$
As the title.
With various uncertainties in the market rising, it seems that funds have returned to the most certain sector in terms of profitability: ai chips. I have increased my position in NVDA, which is currently my largest holding. In addition, I also hold AMD and a small amount of TSM.
$The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ It is my second largest holding, acting as a defense.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Unable to break through for a long time, so I reduced my positions, it is currently my third largest holding. Let's see if the robotaxi can drive the stock price through the resistance. It's not too late to buy after the breakthrough.
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wangcaifan
commented on
Reducing positions $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Because it surged to the support, take partial profits first and observe. If the breakout is confirmed, buy back on the right side. If there is no breakout, buy back at the bottom. Currently, it is still the second largest position hold.
Initiate a buy position. $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ The reason: it has dropped to the 200-week moving average. Unless there is an economic recession, it should not break through. The daily chart opened lower, showing signs of exhaustion gap. Let's see if it will be filled soon. Choose oxy for energy stocks, pay tribute to Buffet 🫡, my cost is even lower than Buffet's, what am I afraid of? If Buffet doesn't sell, I won't sell.
Considering reducing positions. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ However, tesla is considered as a semi-Chinese concept stock. Recently, Chinese concept stocks are gaining momentum, I will continue to observe. Compared to Chinese concept stocks, I am more bullish on Tesla.
Closely observe. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Can it break through the key level of 65,000? Watch for two more days. If it can hold above 65,000 next Monday, I will consider adding positions on the right side, targeting 80,000-90,000. If it cannot hold and turns downwards, then wait for opportunities to buy at lower levels.
Initiate a buy position. $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ The reason: it has dropped to the 200-week moving average. Unless there is an economic recession, it should not break through. The daily chart opened lower, showing signs of exhaustion gap. Let's see if it will be filled soon. Choose oxy for energy stocks, pay tribute to Buffet 🫡, my cost is even lower than Buffet's, what am I afraid of? If Buffet doesn't sell, I won't sell.
Considering reducing positions. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ However, tesla is considered as a semi-Chinese concept stock. Recently, Chinese concept stocks are gaining momentum, I will continue to observe. Compared to Chinese concept stocks, I am more bullish on Tesla.
Closely observe. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Can it break through the key level of 65,000? Watch for two more days. If it can hold above 65,000 next Monday, I will consider adding positions on the right side, targeting 80,000-90,000. If it cannot hold and turns downwards, then wait for opportunities to buy at lower levels.
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wangcaifan
liked
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Recently, my top three holdings have consistently been nvda, xlu, and tsla.
With the recent increase in stock price, tsla has now become my largest holding. Suddenly becoming the leader, truly fortunes change.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Performance is relatively poor, holding the second position.
$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ The trend is strong, previously briefly becoming my largest position, but I later partially reduced it. Currently, it ranks third in my positions. Reasons for reduction: Let xlu be the largest, which seemed too conservative in the bull market.
Currently, my determination is in the later stage of the bull market. Bulls do not speak of a peak, it is not advisable to easily run away from the peak, and abandon the chips. But it probably won't last long, so cherish the rise.
Recently, my top three holdings have consistently been nvda, xlu, and tsla.
With the recent increase in stock price, tsla has now become my largest holding. Suddenly becoming the leader, truly fortunes change.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Performance is relatively poor, holding the second position.
$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ The trend is strong, previously briefly becoming my largest position, but I later partially reduced it. Currently, it ranks third in my positions. Reasons for reduction: Let xlu be the largest, which seemed too conservative in the bull market.
Currently, my determination is in the later stage of the bull market. Bulls do not speak of a peak, it is not advisable to easily run away from the peak, and abandon the chips. But it probably won't last long, so cherish the rise.
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wangcaifan
commented on
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
After today's rise, the probability of nvda falling to two digits sharply decreased. The daily chart is forming a w-bottom. Once the w-bottom is completed, breaking through the neckline will inevitably break the new high, it's just a matter of time. I hope it can slow down a bit, spend more time building the bottom, and not rush to break through in September. After breaking through the neckline, it's best to follow the textbook, pull back a bit, and then rise again. The more stable the bottom, the better the rise.
I did not add to my positions after two bottom attempts, but it doesn't matter. After adjusting my positions, I currently only hold nvda, a chip stock, and it's already my largest position.
Some of the utility stocks I bought before have recently performed well. I expect to receive a sell signal within a month, or at most two months. At that time, I will switch to technology stocks and try to catch the year-end market trends.
After today's rise, the probability of nvda falling to two digits sharply decreased. The daily chart is forming a w-bottom. Once the w-bottom is completed, breaking through the neckline will inevitably break the new high, it's just a matter of time. I hope it can slow down a bit, spend more time building the bottom, and not rush to break through in September. After breaking through the neckline, it's best to follow the textbook, pull back a bit, and then rise again. The more stable the bottom, the better the rise.
I did not add to my positions after two bottom attempts, but it doesn't matter. After adjusting my positions, I currently only hold nvda, a chip stock, and it's already my largest position.
Some of the utility stocks I bought before have recently performed well. I expect to receive a sell signal within a month, or at most two months. At that time, I will switch to technology stocks and try to catch the year-end market trends.
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wangcaifan
commented on
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
I think today's non-farm payroll data is not bad, but obviously, it has been interpreted as bearish news. I think it is to force Powell to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
However, regardless of the situation, once nvda falls back to double digits, the bulls need to quickly start buying, just like last time. If it rebounds above 100, that would be even better.
In a bull market, investors should have the feeling that they need to get on the train as soon as it arrives, otherwise they will miss it. Otherwise, the market sentiment will dissipate. Once nvda falls below 90 and continues to decline, this wave is basically over.
Once the leader of this bull market, nvda falls, the bull market will come to an end. You'll see, it's already starting to crumble. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Today, it just directly shriveled up. The seesaw is also malfunctioning. In this bull market, some stocks may rise better than nvda, but no one can replace nvda's leading position.
My plan: If nvda falls to around 90-95, I will decisively buy more stocks. If I buy at this level, and the bear market really comes, then I can quickly cut losses without a big loss. If the bull market continues, nvda will at least return to 140, with a very good risk-reward ratio.
I think today's non-farm payroll data is not bad, but obviously, it has been interpreted as bearish news. I think it is to force Powell to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
However, regardless of the situation, once nvda falls back to double digits, the bulls need to quickly start buying, just like last time. If it rebounds above 100, that would be even better.
In a bull market, investors should have the feeling that they need to get on the train as soon as it arrives, otherwise they will miss it. Otherwise, the market sentiment will dissipate. Once nvda falls below 90 and continues to decline, this wave is basically over.
Once the leader of this bull market, nvda falls, the bull market will come to an end. You'll see, it's already starting to crumble. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Today, it just directly shriveled up. The seesaw is also malfunctioning. In this bull market, some stocks may rise better than nvda, but no one can replace nvda's leading position.
My plan: If nvda falls to around 90-95, I will decisively buy more stocks. If I buy at this level, and the bear market really comes, then I can quickly cut losses without a big loss. If the bull market continues, nvda will at least return to 140, with a very good risk-reward ratio.
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wangcaifan
liked
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$
Last time. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I am very bullish on the earnings report, but unfortunately, I believed in SMCI's evil and didn't go all in on NVDA, instead I split my investment between NVDA and SMCI, as a result, I was fooled by this thing and missed out on a lot.
Later, I didn't give up. When smci fell to 700, I bought it again, but I learned my lesson and immediately closed my positions when I realized the momentum was not right. I suffered two losses, but finally gained wisdom and stayed away from smci, only buying nvda and other high-quality companies including $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 。
A netizen asked me what I think about smci earlier, and I immediately replied: better to buy nvda. I hope he saw my message.
In conclusion, trading stocks can indeed improve one's intelligence. Just for this reason, I will continue to persist.
Today, my positions in nvda, amd, and tsm are likely affected by smci, as they all declined. It's okay, the focus is on the after-hours earnings report.
Last time. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I am very bullish on the earnings report, but unfortunately, I believed in SMCI's evil and didn't go all in on NVDA, instead I split my investment between NVDA and SMCI, as a result, I was fooled by this thing and missed out on a lot.
Later, I didn't give up. When smci fell to 700, I bought it again, but I learned my lesson and immediately closed my positions when I realized the momentum was not right. I suffered two losses, but finally gained wisdom and stayed away from smci, only buying nvda and other high-quality companies including $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 。
A netizen asked me what I think about smci earlier, and I immediately replied: better to buy nvda. I hope he saw my message.
In conclusion, trading stocks can indeed improve one's intelligence. Just for this reason, I will continue to persist.
Today, my positions in nvda, amd, and tsm are likely affected by smci, as they all declined. It's okay, the focus is on the after-hours earnings report.
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wangcaifan
commented on
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$
$Intel (INTC.US)$
I've written before that this company, INTC, is not worth investing in. But the stock price has fallen. It's really unbearable to look at, I hope none of my friends bought it.
$Intel (INTC.US)$
I've written before that this company, INTC, is not worth investing in. But the stock price has fallen. It's really unbearable to look at, I hope none of my friends bought it.
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wangcaifan
liked and commented on
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$
Although I was lucky to reduce half of my positions before the sharp drop in AMD, it is still my largest holding. I also added some near 150. So I am still quite anxious inside.
The main focus of the financial report is looking ahead, how much the market growth of ai chips will be, and whether AMD can quickly grab a larger share of the market. As the second in the high-performance computing industry, AMD is indeed lagging behind quite a bit this time. Nvidia's market share exceeds 90%, while AMD is still below 5% (as for Intel, it belongs to 'other' and can be ignored). The market share of the second player in the industry should be at least over 10% to be reasonable. So AMD still needs to strive.
As for $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock is now starting to decline. I bottomed out a little at 110 before, and now I'm also underwater, but it's not a big deal because my positions are very small. If AMD's financial report is not good, NVIDIA might really see a double-digit price. In that case, just two words: really good, I will definitely buy back some.
There are too many significant events this week, but regardless of whether there is an economic slowdown, when the Fed will cut interest rates, at least for now, the ai chip sector still seems to be fine. If there are issues, other industries will most likely suffer more. For example, the consumer industry has already collapsed, even P&G is struggling to hold on (see the following stocks, how much they have fallen: $Nike (NKE.US)$ , $Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ ,......
Although I was lucky to reduce half of my positions before the sharp drop in AMD, it is still my largest holding. I also added some near 150. So I am still quite anxious inside.
The main focus of the financial report is looking ahead, how much the market growth of ai chips will be, and whether AMD can quickly grab a larger share of the market. As the second in the high-performance computing industry, AMD is indeed lagging behind quite a bit this time. Nvidia's market share exceeds 90%, while AMD is still below 5% (as for Intel, it belongs to 'other' and can be ignored). The market share of the second player in the industry should be at least over 10% to be reasonable. So AMD still needs to strive.
As for $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock is now starting to decline. I bottomed out a little at 110 before, and now I'm also underwater, but it's not a big deal because my positions are very small. If AMD's financial report is not good, NVIDIA might really see a double-digit price. In that case, just two words: really good, I will definitely buy back some.
There are too many significant events this week, but regardless of whether there is an economic slowdown, when the Fed will cut interest rates, at least for now, the ai chip sector still seems to be fine. If there are issues, other industries will most likely suffer more. For example, the consumer industry has already collapsed, even P&G is struggling to hold on (see the following stocks, how much they have fallen: $Nike (NKE.US)$ , $Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ ,......
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wangcaifan
commented on
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Next plan for adding to positions:
tsla: 210
amd: 140
Sector rotation is a good opportunity for technology stocks to attract funds.
Apart from offense, it's also important to focus on defense. I still bullish on utilities sector, including most stocks except new energy fund like nee. They are strong in certainty, unaffected by economic cycles and bipartisan policies, rate cuts are favorable. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ Apart from new energy fund like nee, most stocks are still appealing to me. They have strong certainty, are unaffected by economic cycles and bipartisan policies, rate cuts are favorable.
Even if small cap stocks can make money, I don't plan to participate. Don't have that much energy. Small cap stocks that were bought for fun before, plan to gradually switch to technology stocks along with the decline in big technology.
As for bitcoin, I currently see it in a sideways consolidation phase, considered a downtrend period, with no specific trading plan for now.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Next plan for adding to positions:
tsla: 210
amd: 140
Sector rotation is a good opportunity for technology stocks to attract funds.
Apart from offense, it's also important to focus on defense. I still bullish on utilities sector, including most stocks except new energy fund like nee. They are strong in certainty, unaffected by economic cycles and bipartisan policies, rate cuts are favorable. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ Apart from new energy fund like nee, most stocks are still appealing to me. They have strong certainty, are unaffected by economic cycles and bipartisan policies, rate cuts are favorable.
Even if small cap stocks can make money, I don't plan to participate. Don't have that much energy. Small cap stocks that were bought for fun before, plan to gradually switch to technology stocks along with the decline in big technology.
As for bitcoin, I currently see it in a sideways consolidation phase, considered a downtrend period, with no specific trading plan for now.
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wangcaifan
commented on
$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
Cybersecurity is a very promising track, but each stock is high risk. I don't understand the technology behind them, can't judge who's good or bad, betting on any of them could lead to pitfalls.
Therefore, I choose not to pick stocks, but to hold industry ETFs. $Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG.US)$ and benefit from the overall dividends of this industry.
crwd's stumble this time, $Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG.US)$ There was no major drop, different companies have their ups and downs, but the overall pie will always grow. Unless technology giants intervene personally to grab the pie from these companies. Therefore, even with industry ETFs, heavy positions should be avoided.
Cybersecurity is a very promising track, but each stock is high risk. I don't understand the technology behind them, can't judge who's good or bad, betting on any of them could lead to pitfalls.
Therefore, I choose not to pick stocks, but to hold industry ETFs. $Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG.US)$ and benefit from the overall dividends of this industry.
crwd's stumble this time, $Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG.US)$ There was no major drop, different companies have their ups and downs, but the overall pie will always grow. Unless technology giants intervene personally to grab the pie from these companies. Therefore, even with industry ETFs, heavy positions should be avoided.
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wangcaifan : Thank you for sharing.