Today on the 5th, check the feeling of overheating, taking into account the turnover.
Futures that blew up to 41120 yen in the morning are 40,930 yen as of 9:23 with an upper beard attached. And the yellow line chart at the bottom is an oscillator derived from price and volume.
Since this has begun to decline, it is still weakening due to awareness of the ceiling area.
If it leaves 41000 again from here and rises along with turnover, it will continue to rise, and if it declines moderately as it is now, as expected, it will come to a standstill around here. At any rate, it depends on the employment statistics for the night of the 5th.

When you actually trade,Supply and demandHow much importance do you place on it?
As the title says spoiler.If you talk about market prices based only on supply and demand, you'll die. However,Investors who don't look at supply and demand or disdain them also can't winIt is a characteristic.
In short, it's justSupply and demand are secondary, but it is necessary to look at the market price after having that information and knowledgeIt's also an indescribable opponent.
Let's take a look at the specifics.
Is it the Nikkei averageThe supply and demand for Japanese stocks is very bad nowIt is.
after all,Remaining credit buybacks are 5 trillion yenApproaching the level for the first time in 17 years.The most common situation in the past 20 yearsThat's it. Credit purchases basically have to be settled in a maximum of 6 months,Overstock is a sales factor in the near futureIt is.
This is the largest scale in the last 20 years, and it is clearly very common because the level of the Nikkei Average has reached 40,000 yen and the level of the stock price itself is high.
As of last week in total for 2 cities4,911.7 billion yen. Unbought or unsold6.45 times even with a credit ratioThere are also, so no matter how high the Nikkei average level is, there are abnormally many unbought items.
furtherInstitutional investors' arbitrage balance is also at the 2.4 trillion yen levelSo, this is also very much when it exceeds 2 trillion yen. Even if this takes stock price levels into account, 2.5 trillion yen...

Today's 28th is a super trend.
The band walk has been maintained somehow, but there are many stocks that have dropped in price, and there is a possibility that they will increase due to adjustments at the end of the month.
However, the super trend buy conversion is 39,650 yen. It dropped out the day before yesterday and yesterday due to Zalaba, and today's high price is 39,670 yen for a moment. When this falls out on a closing price basis and ends, it is a long-term uptrend shift, so the band walk continues due to high ground levels.
The possibility of touching 40,000 yen due to this increase is also increasing, so the current situation is still moving upward.

Today 27th is the Bolivan Delayed Line.
Once upon a time, the Bolivan Delayed Line worked this time as well. That said, the lights were on at the same time as the band walk, and I decided that the rising band walk was stronger, so I wasn't able to do a short.
It would be tough if yesterday's rise were completely reversed as it is.
If the closing price breaks +2 σ, the band walk will end, and developments above 39500 yen will become severe. There are still days left until SQ, so it seems like it's going to turn two and three, but it's difficult being swayed by the US.

Many people, myself included“If the yen depreciates, the Nikkei Average will rise,” “at least it won't fall,” “large export stocks will rise.”I think that's the perception.
But here tooI need a mindset changeI would like to confirm the story that we are in such a situation... while looking at the chart.
This is a chart of the correlation coefficient between Nikkei futures and the dollar and yen.
As the name suggests, the correlation coefficientThe state of correlation between the twoIt represents,1.0 is the max and 1.0 is fully correlated. -1.0 for perfect inverse correlation, and 0 for no correlationIt will be.
Perfect correlation means that if A goes up, B always goes up, or if A goes down, all B also goes down.
Whether the stock price rises or falls, if both sides move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it's easy to get confused when stock prices are falling.
On the other hand, when the correlation coefficient is negative, it is called inverse correlation, and if A goes up, B goes down, and if A goes down, B goes up... it's the exact opposite of both.
Also, 0 (zero): The yellow dotted line shows “no correlation,” although the image is a bit more confusing.
As the name suggests, this shows that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B...

Comparative research between NVIDIA spot stocks and daily ETFs that provide double returns - isn't this what you want to know?
Should I invest in individual stocks or should I invest in leveraged ETFs for those stocks? Here's what you want to know.
From the beginning of the year 2024 to the end of market trading on 2024/6/4, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock prices showed a cumulative increase of 135.13%. Meanwhile, NVDL, which is currently the largest single stock ETF that follows NVIDIA's stock price, has recorded a cumulative increase of 326.29%.
(Data source: moomoo securities data is as of the end of the stock market on 2024/6/4. (This example is for illustrative purposes only, and does not mean investment advice or guarantee of profit.)
In addition to NVIDIA, stocks with large stock price fluctuations such as Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have also become new favorites for investors through single-share ETFs. Research company “Morningstar”...

Today's 19th is the 25MA offensive and defensive game, isn't it?
As I mentioned in the video, I'm still watching it being pushed back around 25MA = 38720 yen because of the market price for return sales. However, if you get ahead, the 39,000 yen milestone and 75MA will be the next medals, so you can still aim for the top.
NY & US Hi-Tech Semiconductors are so strong that we may still be able to aim higher.
However, if NY has a ceiling, be careful. As expected, it's a speeding violation level...

The depreciation of the yen has not subsided at all.
Well, at the Bank of Japan meeting on the 14th”It doesn't do anything after all」「Postpone the problem for a month and a halfIt became”,The government side also does not specify any means other than interventionSo if you say it's natural, it's natural.
Whether you complain to the Bank of Japan or Governor Ueda, whether you complain to Prime Minister Kishida, or complain to the Ministry of Finance, the situation will not change. We individual investors who use charts to look at market pricesCorrectly grasp this fact and respond to it to defend yourselfThere is nothing but that.
First, take a look at the chart below.
This is the top halfJapan-US interest rate difference。
As a simple synthetic index in TradingView,
US10Y - JP10Y
Just type it in and it's OK.
The great thing about TradingView is that it is possible to synthesize these different indices and stocks using only simple arithmetic operations. I don't think there are many Japanese securities company apps that can do this kind of thing flexibly.
And the bottom row is simplyDollar yen: USDJPY It's just showing. This is the only chart.
Vertical lines, arrows, and text are written in a jumble, so it looks like a slightly confusing chart, but the content is very simple.
...

The US market is extremely strong even now, but when this hits the ceiling and becomes a solid depreciation rate, then”Canary in the coal mineThere are several stocks and charts that become”.
Copper prices: the material for actual demand, the decline in copper represents economic instability as it is
Retail sales: Since private consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP, the decline in retail sales represents an economic slowdown as is
Home Depot stock price: Even in retail, large appliances and furniture are closely related to moving and home purchases. If this becomes soft, it indicates a slowdown in the economy
etc etc.
further“FedEx” is known to have often declined during the period that became the starting point of past recessions (recessions)It is.
It is a brand that is also included in the DJT (Dow Transport Stock Average) in the transportation sector. socalledEconomy-sensitive stock sectorsThat's it. Since the main thing is cargo, the economic slowdown will affect it even more directly than passengers.
If the economy deteriorates, companies will shrink production activities, so production of products will decrease in various industries, and cargo will decreaseThe performance of cargo transportation businesses such as FedEx deteriorated earlierI will.
So,If we break a milestone on the FedEx long-term chart, the US economy is in trouble!So that's it....